Rupee vs Dollar: How USD-INR Impacts Indian Stocks


    By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)

    Summary :


    A weaker rupee can benefit exporters such as IT and pharma companies, while raising costs for import-dependent businesses. Here is how USD-INR movements affect corporate earnings, inflation, FII flows and Indian stocks.

    Rupee vs Dollar: Impact on Stocks

    Investors watch the movement of the Indian rupee against the US dollar.

    The reason relates to trade and revenue patterns.

    India imports crude oil, electronics, machinery and several other products, while many Indian companies earn a portion of their revenue from overseas markets.

    When the rupee weakens compared to the dollar, some companies record higher profits while others record losses, depending on their exposure.

    For instance, Tata Consultancy Services could see an effect from a falling rupee since it earns a large share of its revenue in US dollars. A company dealing in oil, such as Reliance Industries, would be affected by rising costs, since the price of oil is measured in dollars.

    The USD/INR exchange rate is associated with the profitability of firms, inflation rates, foreign investment, and stock price movements. 

    As of September 8, 2026, the rupee had depreciated to ₹94.8 per US dollar.

    The currency remained under pressure due to factors such as crude oil prices and international conditions, with RBI interventions aimed at limiting sharp movements.

    Below are some ways an investor can look at the link between the rupee, the dollar and Indian stocks.

    USD to INR Rate Dynamics

    The USD to INR rate generally depends on the demand and supply of dollars and Indian rupees.

    If demand for dollars increases, it becomes more expensive relative to the rupee, and the rupee weakens.

    Several factors are associated with this movement:

    Foreign Investment Flows: When foreign investors buy Indian stocks, they typically convert dollars into rupees, which adds to the supply of dollars in the market. When foreign investors sell Indian investments, they convert rupees back into dollars, which increases the demand for dollars and can put pressure on the rupee.

    Crude Oil Prices: India is a large importer of crude oil. Since crude oil is priced in dollars, higher oil prices increase India's demand for dollars, which in turn puts downward pressure on the rupee. 

    RBI Intervention: The RBI may intervene in the forex market by buying or selling dollars, generally to limit sharp volatility. The RBI has stated that it does not target a specific level for the rupee but intervenes to address disorderly movement in the exchange rate.

    In the week ended September 4, 2026, the RBI sold at least $8 billion to support the rupee, according to bankers' estimates, illustrating this scenario.

    Exporters and Importers

    One way to look at currency effects is to classify firms as exporters or importers.

    Exporters earn revenue in foreign currency.

    For example, consider an Indian firm that earns $1 million from an American client. That revenue, at ₹90 per dollar, amounts to ₹9 crore. The same $1 million, when converted at ₹95 per dollar, amounts to ₹9.5 crore.

    In this example, the company records ₹50 lakh more in rupee terms, even though its dollar revenue is unchanged. This illustrates why a weaker rupee is associated with companies that have overseas revenue.

    Importers face the opposite dynamic.

    If a company has to pay $1 million for imported goods, its cost rises from ₹9 crore at ₹90 per dollar to ₹9.5 crore at ₹95 per dollar.

    This additional ₹50 lakh in costs could lower profits if the company cannot pass them on to consumers.

    Because of these factors, a weaker rupee does not have a uniform effect on the stock market.

    IT and Pharma: EPS Sensitivity to a 1% Rupee Move

    IT is one of the sectors that USD to INR movement directly affects. The Indian IT services industry earns roughly 90% of its revenue from global markets, with about 57% from the US and about 28% from Europe. When the rupee depreciates, each dollar of revenue converts into more rupees.

    Market estimates suggest that a 1% rupee depreciation could improve IT companies' operating margins by roughly 20-50 basis points, depending on the company. The exact effect varies by company depending on hedging, offshore costs, pricing and the currency mix of revenue.

    For investors, the analysis illustrates that currency movement can affect earnings independent of underlying business growth.

    Pharmaceutical firms, particularly those with operations in the US and other overseas markets, may also see rupee movement affect their earnings.

    Aurobindo Pharma's management noted in 2026 that a 1% depreciation of the rupee against the dollar would be associated with an increase in EBITDA of about ₹100 crore.

    This effect is not uniform across the pharma sector. Companies that import raw materials and other inputs may see this benefit offset in part.

    Sectors Such as Oil and Gas, Electronics, and Capital Goods

    A weaker rupee can create cost pressure for businesses that depend on imports.

    Oil and gas: Crude oil is a significant import item for India. The country imports over 80 to 90% of its oil requirements. When crude prices rise and the rupee weakens at the same time, the combined cost pressure increases. For instance, an importer faces higher costs when crude prices rise from $90 to $100 per barrel. If the rupee also weakens from ₹90 to ₹95 against the dollar, the rupee cost of that crude rises further. This can affect oil marketing companies, airlines, paints, tyres, chemicals and other businesses.

    Electronics: India imports a large volume of electronic components and finished products.

    Capital goods: Companies importing machinery and equipment may also see higher costs when the dollar strengthens against the rupee.

    The FII Flow Loop

    Foreign investment flows and the rupee can influence each other. If foreign investors reduce their India allocation, they may sell Indian stocks and convert the resulting rupees into dollars. This adds to demand for dollars. As the rupee weakens, foreign investors may reassess their positions further, which can extend the cycle.

    Rupee and Inflation

    A weaker rupee can also drive inflation.

    This phenomenon occurs because India imports several products, including crude oil, electronic components, machinery and raw materials.

    Example: a textile or auto parts company importing a machine worth $10,000.

    • At ₹90 per dollar, it pays ₹9,00,000.

    • At ₹95 per dollar, it pays ₹9,50,000.

    This effect is referred to as imported inflation.

    Approaches Available to Investors for Managing Currency-Related Risk

    Investors are not limited to trading currencies directly to manage exposure to USD and INR fluctuations.

    Diversification is one approach.

    A stock portfolio concentrated in companies that rely on imports may be more sensitive to rupee depreciation. Including companies that generate a large share of income from foreign markets is one way to broaden that exposure.

    Investors can also review a company's currency exposure before making a decision. Relevant questions include:

    • How much of the company's revenue comes from overseas markets?

    • How much of its cost base is linked to the dollar?

    • Does the company hedge its foreign currency exposure?

    The third point is relevant because hedging can reduce the immediate effect of a weaker rupee for exporters while also providing some protection against sudden currency moves.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    About the Author

    SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000006396).


    Founded in 1986, Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ) brings decades of experience in India’s equity markets. DSIJ's research combines fundamental analysis with price action, guided by disciplined risk management and capital preservation. They follow a structured, data-driven approach designed to help investors and traders make informed decisions beyond short-term market noise. 

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    Published Date : 29 Sep 2026

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    This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market investments are subject to risks. DSIJ Wealth Advisory Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Reg. No: INH000006396) and Investment Adviser (Reg. No: INA000001142). Please consult your financial adviser before investing. 

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