Bajaj Broking Research Desk’s Diwali Stock Picks 2026: Upside Potential Up To 19%

    Summary:


    Bajaj Broking Research Desk’s Diwali Stock Picks 2026 present nine ideas combining fundamental and technical analysis. Fundamental picks include Mahindra and Mahindra, Varun Beverages, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, GE Vernova T&D India, Sudarshan Chemical Industries and Rolex Rings, with targets implying 10–16% upside. Technical picks are ICICI Bank, Adani Power and Lloyds Engineering Works, with upside of 12–19%.

    Diwali, a festival that celebrates the triumph of light over darkness, has long been associated with new beginnings, prosperity and auspicious investments. In 2026, this symbolism resonates particularly well with Indian equity markets, where navigating uncertainty and identifying opportunities remain key to the investment journey.

    Against this backdrop, the Bajaj Broking Research Desk presents its Diwali Stock Picks 2026 - a curated selection of stocks identified through a combination of in-house fundamental research and technical analysis.

    Here is the list of stock ideas that may offer meaningful upside potential over the next 12 months:

    A. Fundamental Picks

    1. Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd

    ParticularsDetails
    Market Cap₹3,614.94 bn
    Entry Range₹2,860–2,890
    Target Price₹3,251
    Upside Potential13%

    About the Company

    Mahindra & Mahindra is India's largest SUV maker by revenue share (25.3% in FY26) and the country's biggest tractor company (43.6% share). It also leads small pick-ups (52.3%) and electric three-wheelers (40.0%), and holds stakes in Tech Mahindra, Mahindra Finance, the EV arm MEAL and a string of listed and unlisted businesses, so the stock trades partly as an OEM and partly as a holding company.

    Earnings Growth from a Mid-Cycle Base

    Consolidated EPS is estimated to rise from ₹153.1 in FY26A to ₹237.3 in FY29E, with PAT growing at approximately 16% annually. FY26 was a strong tractor year, while Auto margins remained below normal due to commodity pressures. Consequently, FY27E standalone EBITDA is only 1.6% above the mid-cycle estimate, indicating that forecasts do not rely on a peak year.

    Pricing Power Protects Profitability

    Standalone EBITDA is expected to rise from ₹209.8 billion in FY26A to ₹282.9 billion in FY29E. Price increases contribute ₹69.8 bn, exceeding the contribution from volume growth in existing models (₹32.6 bn) and new launches (₹23.3 bn). These pricing actions are expected to offset ₹77.2 billion in commodity pressures and maintain margins near 13.3%.

    Capacity Expansion Supports the Next SUV Growth Cycle

    SUV plants operated at approximately 91% utilisation in FY26. ICE capacity is expected to increase from 56,500 to 80,000 units per month by FY28, with the first NU_IQ models arriving in FY28 and the Nagpur plant following in H1CY2029. These expansions are expected to support domestic UV volumes rising from 0.66 million to 0.95 million units by FY29E.

    EV Leadership with Limited Cash Drain

    EVs account for 12% of M&M's SUV sales, compared with 9% for the industry, while eSUV volumes grew 77% YoY. MEAL reported PBIT of ₹2.42 billion in FY26 and is EBITDA-positive even without PLI support. Consequently, parent funding requirements are expected to remain limited at ₹12.0 bn, ₹10.0 billion and ₹8.0 billion over FY27E–FY29E, respectively.

    Cash-Rich Balance Sheet and Embedded Group Value

    Standalone net cash is projected to increase from ₹319.1 billion to ₹635.9 billion by FY29E, with the capex plan funded internally. Listed stakes in Tech Mahindra, Mahindra Finance, SML Mahindra, Mahindra Lifespaces and others are worth about ₹836.6 billion at market prices. ROCE is also expected to improve from 41.5% to 48.9%.

    Shareholding (%)

    ParticularsQ2FY27Q1FY27Q4FY26
    Promoter18.4%18.4%18.5%
    FII33.3%34.9%36.2%
    DII34.2%32.6%31.4%
    Others14.1%14.1%14.0%

    Financials (₹ mn)

    ParticularsFY26AFY27EFY28E
    Revenue1,986,3862,297,0742,596,726
    EBITDA375,614425,077488,948
    PAT186,217219,731254,587
    EPS (₹)153.1180.9208.6

    2. Varun Beverages Ltd

    ParticularsDetails
    Market Cap₹1,325.94 bn
    Entry Range₹394–402
    Target Price₹459
    Upside Potential15%

    About the Company

    Varun Beverages is the largest bottler PepsiCo has outside the United States, selling in 27 countries and reporting on a calendar year. It makes and delivers the drinks – colas, Sting, juice drinks, dairy and water – while PepsiCo owns the brands and sells VBL the concentrate. India is about two-thirds of volume; the rest comes from Morocco, Zimbabwe, Zambia, the DRC, Nepal, Sri Lanka, South Africa and, from this year, Kenya.

    Volume-Led Earnings Compounding

    Sales rose from 569 million cases in CY21 to 1,220 million in CY25 and are expected to reach 1,941 million by CY28E, implying 16.7% annual growth. Growth has been driven by volumes rather than pricing, with realisation per case rising only from ₹155 to ₹180 over 5 years. This is expected to drive EBITDA from ₹50.3 billion in CY25 to ₹91.9 billion and EPS from ₹8.8 to ₹16.1 by CY28E.

    Operating Leverage from Installed Capacity

    In most African markets, production during the peak quarter is already near capacity, prompting new lines in Morocco, Zimbabwe and the DRC. Once these expansions are complete, existing coolers and outlets can handle additional volumes at minimal incremental cost, lifting EBITDA margins from 22.5% in CY26E to 24.1% in CY28E.

    International Growth Engine

    International volumes reaches 506 million cases in CY26E, up 32.8%, after growing over 20% in every quarter this year before acquisitions. Twizza merged into BevCo on August 1, 2026. As Twizza produces its own packaging, international gross margins have held up better than India's. In Zimbabwe, the market has grown from 35 million cases when VBL entered to nearly 75 mn.

    Cost Levers Absorbing Inflation

    In Q3, revenue rose 33.2% to ₹66,076 million and EBITDA grew 25.1% to ₹14,267 mn, with margins declining only 140 bps to 21.6% despite a ~300 bps packaging cost hit. More than half of the cost increase has already been recovered through savings, while low/no-sugar drinks rising to 88% of India's mix from 44% have largely offset a 16% increase in sugar costs.

    Self-Funding Growth

    Net debt excluding leases of ₹256 million in CY25 is expected to turn into net cash of ₹52.9 billion by CY28E, as cash from trading rises from ₹43.8 billion to ₹70.7 bn. ROCE is expected to improve from 18.2% to 22.0% and ROE from 16.6% to 18.7%, as higher volumes utilise factories that have already been built.

    Shareholding (%)

    ParticularsQ3CY26Q2CY26Q1CY26
    Promoter59.4%59.4%59.4%
    FII17.5%19.0%19.5%
    DII16.3%15.2%14.4%
    Others6.8%6.4%6.7%

    Financials (₹ mn)

    ParticularsCY25ACY26ECY27E
    Revenue219,676273,114327,266
    EBITDA50,33061,50676,569
    PAT30,18535,57444,731
    EPS (₹)8.810.513.2

    3. CG Power & Industrial Solutions Ltd

    ParticularsDetails
    Market Cap₹1,286.06 bn
    Entry Range₹800–820
    Target Price₹938
    Upside Potential16%

    About the Company

    CG Power & Industrial Solutions is a global enterprise providing end-to-end solutions to utilities, industries and consumers for the management and application of efficient and sustainable electrical energy. It offers products, services and solutions across two main segments – Power Systems and Industrial Systems – and maintains a healthy order backlog of ₹218.20 bn.

    25%+ Growth with Expanding Margins

    Revenue is estimated to grow 25.6% in FY27E and 26.7% in FY28E to ₹197.5 bn, with EBITDA rising from ₹16.3 billion to ₹27.8 billion as margins expand from 13.1% to 14.1%. EPS is expected to rise from ₹7.7 in FY26 to ₹13.4 in FY28E.

    Transformer Capacity Step-Up

    The newly commissioned greenfield transformer facility in Madhya Pradesh, reportedly India's largest at a single location, was completed in 13 months across 50+ acres. It will make 220 kV–1200 kV transformers, with peak capacity of around 35 units per month, while Bhopal capacity expansion continues. The Power Systems backlog of ₹189.64 billion provides strong execution visibility.

    Motors Margin Turnaround

    The motors business has crossed double-digit margins, driven by CG Edge productivity initiatives, portfolio optimisation and waste reduction. Price hikes of over 30% in the past 12 months have largely offset commodity inflation. A next-generation motor platform is rolling out over 9–12 months, while permanent magnet and IE5+ motors should improve export competitiveness. Industrial backlog stands at ₹28.56 bn.

    Sharply Improving Returns

    ROE is estimated to rise from 15.0% in FY26 to 26.1% in FY28E, while ROCE is expected to improve from 20.7% to 33.9%, with debt-to-equity at 0.1x. Management sees structural tailwinds from T&D capex, railway modernisation and Make in India.

    Semiconductor Optionality

    CG Power has invested around ₹10 billion in its semiconductor project, matched by government capital support. Subsidiary Axiro Semiconductor acquired TOSIL Systems in Q2FY27, with qualification expected to begin next year and commercial production targeted for FY29.

    Shareholding (%)

    ParticularsQ2FY27Q1FY27Q4FY26
    Promoter56.456.456.4
    FII11.112.012.0
    DII19.018.218.0
    Others13.613.413.6

    Financials (₹ mn)

    ParticularsFY26FY27EFY28E
    Revenue124,179155,929197,485
    EBITDA16,25321,83027,845
    PAT11,96816,67620,772
    EPS (₹)7.710.813.4

    4. GE Vernova T&D India Ltd

    ParticularsDetails
    Market Cap₹1,058.0 bn
    Entry Range₹4,080–4,165
    Target Price₹4,545
    Upside Potential10%

    About the Company

    GE Vernova T&D India is the listed Indian arm of GE Vernova's power grid business, 51.0% parent-held. It sells equipment outright – transformers to 1200 kV, switchgear to 800 kV, instrument transformers, breakers, bushings and reactors (₹18.6 billion in FY26) – and executes projects and services (₹42.9 bn) recognised as work proceeds, so revenue is drawn from the order book. Above both sit complete HVDC systems, FACTS, STATCOM and grid automation. Exports were 32.7% of FY26 sales.

    Order Book Underwrites Growth

    The order book stood at ₹214.4 billion as of September 30, over three years of FY26 revenue, and excludes the 6,000 MW Barmer II–South Kalamb HVDC project, where the company is the lowest bidder (estimated ₹65.0 bn). Revenue is expected to rise from ₹62.1 billion in FY26 to ₹93.9 billion in FY28E, with EPS increasing from ₹48.17 to ₹72.78.

    Margins at the Top of Guidance

    Gross margin recovered to 44.5% in Q2 from 41.3% in Q1, while H1 EBITDA margin of 26.2% sits at the top of the mid-20s guidance reaffirmed on October 30, 2026. H1 revenue rose 35% to ₹38.6 bn, with profit at ₹7.9 bn. Q2 order intake grew 52% to ₹24.4 bn, without any single large contract driving growth.

    Multi-Year HVDC and Transmission Pipeline

    At least 2 to 3 more HVDC projects are expected to be tendered next year, alongside meaningful STATCOM orders in Q4 and a strong pipeline of competitively bid transmission projects. Demand is driven by long-distance renewable power transmission, grid digitalisation and the integration of flexible capacity and storage.

    Localisation and Export Recovery

    HVDC transformers, valves and control systems are now made in India, with 68% local content overall. Exports recovered to 29% of H1FY27 order intake from 8% in FY26, with H1 export orders of about ₹10.4 billion versus ₹11.8 billion for all of FY26. A ₹10.0 billion capacity expansion is underway, with around 20% spent.

    Customer-Funded Cash Generation

    Advances rise with order intake, allowing customers to fund working capital. FY27E operating cash flow of ₹11.8 billion and free cash flow of ₹7.6 billion, rising to ₹11.2 billion, are expected to support net cash of ₹41.4 billion by FY28E, with ROE at 49.6% in FY27E.

    Shareholding (%)

    ParticularsQ2FY27Q1FY27Q4FY26
    Promoter51.00%51.00%51.00%
    FII19.16%22.89%20.39%
    DII22.18%18.46%21.39%
    Others7.67%7.65%7.22%

    Financials (₹ mn)

    ParticularsFY26AFY27EFY28E
    Revenue62,06382,66593,864
    EBITDA16,83821,49323,560
    PAT12,33416,88818,634
    EPS (₹)48.1765.9572.78

    5. Sudarshan Chemical Industries Ltd

    ParticularsDetails
    Market Cap₹82.13 bn
    Entry Range₹1,010–1,035
    Target Price₹1,144
    Upside Potential12%

    About the Company

    Sudarshan is India's largest pigment manufacturer and, after the Heubach acquisition, a top-tier global colorants platform with ~253,000 MT of capacity across 19 sites in 11 countries. It is best assessed as two earnings streams: legacy Sudarshan Pigments (India, ~78,000 MT), which is structurally profitable, and acquired Group Pigments (ex-India, ~175,000 MT), a turnaround asset earning well below its capability.

    Mahindra Mahindra Ltd

    Trade

    3069.4107.50 (3.62 %)

    Updated - 05 November 2026
    3077.00day high
    DAY HIGH
    2984.20day low
    DAY LOW
    560390
    VOLUME (BSE)

    2. Adani Power

    Particulars

    Details

    Market Cap

    ₹3,744.32 bn

    Entry Range

    ₹188–194

    Target Price

    ₹223

    Upside Potential

    16%

     Technical Setup

    The last 5 months' corrective decline in Adani Power's share price appears to have approached maturity, with the stock rebounding after taking support at the major support area of 175, which coincides with the 52-week EMA and the neckline of the previous major cup-and-handle breakout in April 2026.

    The stock has rebounded from this support area and started forming higher highs on the weekly chart, signalling a return of positive momentum.

    We expect the stock to resume its primary uptrend and head towards 223 levels in the coming quarters, being the 61.8% retracement of the previous decline from 254 to 175.

    The weekly stochastic has also generated a buy signal, highlighting strength.

    3. Lloyds Engineering Works

    ParticularsDetails
    Market Cap₹130.71 bn
    Entry Range₹82–84
    Target Price₹99
    Upside Potential19%

    Technical Setup

    The stock is an outperformer in the current year and is forming higher highs and higher lows on the long-term chart. In the current year, it has generated a breakout above the two-year consolidation range of 35–77 and rallied further.

    The stock has strong support at 75–77 levels, being the upper band of the recent range breakout and the 52-week EMA.

    We expect the stock to extend its outperformance and head towards the 99–104 levels in the coming quarters, which is the recent all-time high.

    On the volume front, the stock has seen price rises accompanied by strong volumes, while volumes remain relatively low during price declines, highlighting greater participation in the direction of the trend.

    Conclusion

    Bajaj Broking Research Desk’s Diwali Picks 2026 bring together a blend of fundamentally strong companies and technically promising opportunities across sectors such as automobiles, banking, power, beverages, specialty chemicals, manufacturing and engineering. Each stock has been selected through in-house fundamental research and technical analysis, with a focus on earnings visibility, business strength and favourable price trends.

    Share Market Latest News

    Published Date : 05 Nov 2026

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    Content Partner - Dalal Street Investment Journal Wealth Advisory Private Limited



    This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market investments are subject to risks. DSIJ Wealth Advisory Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Reg. No: INH000006396) and Investment Adviser (Reg. No: INA000001142). Please consult your financial adviser before investing. 

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