What Is the Outlook for NHPC's share in 2027 and 2030?
An illustrative 6% annual price compounding assumption gives about ₹76.2 for 2027 and ₹92 for 2030; these figures are mathematical scenarios, not formal analyst targets.
By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)
NHPC reported FY26 consolidated revenue of ₹11,615 crore and PAT of roughly ₹4,220 crore. Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹3,808 crore versus ₹3,214 crore a year earlier, with new hydropower capacity contributing. This analysis covers its regulated earnings, borrowings of about ₹52,327 crore, project commissioning, ownership and illustrative price scenarios.
NHPC Limited, a Government of India Navratna PSU, generates electricity primarily from hydropower. Its NSE share closed at ₹72.99 on 9 October 2026.
Key Metrics | NHPC Limited |
|---|---|
Share price (NSE close, 9 Oct 2026) | ₹72.99 |
Market capitalisation | ₹73,319 crore |
52-week high | ₹87.8 |
52-week low | ₹68.7 |
P/E ratio | 19.3x |
P/B ratio | 1.77x |
FY26 revenue | ₹11,615 crore |
FY26 PAT | ₹4,220 crore |
Dividend yield | 2.20% |
(Sources: NSE, 9 October 2026; Screener. Valuation figures are approximate and may change with market prices.)
The stock traded below its 52-week high of ₹87.8. Regulated returns on operating hydro assets and the financing cost and construction risk of projects under development are separate factors.
NHPC develops, owns and operates hydropower stations and also participates in solar, wind, project consultancy and power trading. As of Q1 FY27, its group portfolio comprised about 9,333 MW across 31 power stations, including 8,771 MW hydro and 562 MW other renewable capacity. Hydro accounts for about 94% of installed capacity.
FY27 Capacity Mix | Installed Capacity (MW) |
|---|---|
Hydropower | 8,771 |
Other renewables | 562 |
Total installed capacity | 9,333 |
Power stations | 31 |
Core activity | Electricity generation |
(Sources: NHPC company disclosures; Screener company overview, Q1 FY27.)
Electricity sales form the core business. Generation from mature hydro plants can be stable over long periods, while water flow, availability and regulatory true-ups cause variations between quarters. Consultancy and other activities are smaller contributors.
Q1 FY27 Operating Measure | Result |
|---|---|
Electricity generation | 8,918 MU |
Year earlier generation | 8,345 MU |
(Source: NHPC Q1 FY27 results, released 4 August 2026.)
Rising solar and wind penetration drives demand for flexible electricity. Hydropower and pumped storage can provide balancing and peak supply; large dams require approvals, financing, transmission connectivity and environmental safeguards.
NHPC’s consolidated sales increased from ₹9,631 crore in FY24 to ₹11,615 crore in FY26, while operating profitability fluctuated. The FY26 reported PAT is linked to other income, interest costs and quarterly exceptional items.
Financials | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (₹ crore) | 9,631 | 10,380 | 11,615 |
Revenue growth | Not applicable | 7.8% | 11.9% |
Operating profit (₹ crore) | 4,936 | 5,523 | 4,097 |
Operating margin | 51% | 53% | 35% |
PAT (₹ crore) | 4,000 | 3,412 | 4,220 |
(Source: Screener consolidated FY24 to FY26 financial statements; NHPC annual reports and FY26 results.)
FY26 operating margin was approximately 35%, compared with 53% in FY25, while revenue rose. Consolidated borrowings were about ₹52,327 crore against ₹39,557 crore a year earlier as projects moved forward. Large hydro capex can reduce near-term free cash flow before commercial operation begins.
In Q1 FY27, consolidated revenue from operations was approximately ₹3,808 crore versus ₹3,214 crore in Q1 FY26. Consolidated net profit was about ₹1,178 crore on Screener’s consolidated presentation; NHPC’s release reported group profit of ₹1,096 crore on its stated basis. Standalone PAT was ₹1,113 crore, up from ₹1,072 crore. The figures are on different reporting bases.
At the 9 October reference price, NHPC traded near 19x earnings and 1.8x book value. The screener reported ROE of 9.32% and ROCE of 5.75%. FY26 consolidated gross borrowing divided by share capital plus reserves was about 1.26x, which links financing costs to earnings.
Key Ratio (FY26/TTM) | NHPC Limited |
|---|---|
P/E | 19.3x |
P/B | 1.77x |
ROE | 9.32% |
ROCE | 5.75% |
Debt to equity | 1.26x |
Dividend yield | 2.20% |
(Sources: Screener, 12 October 2026 snapshot; FY26 consolidated balance sheet. Rounded estimates.)
Power Generation & Distribution is too diverse for one sector average multiple: regulated hydro, coal-fired utilities, solar developers and transmission companies have different tariffs, leverage and risks. Return on capital, debt and earnings quality are data points alongside P/E.
On a technical basis, the share price of NHPC has shown a pattern of lower highs and lower lows on a weekly time frame. A near-term support level has been noted at ₹75.01.
A resistance level has been noted at ₹77.7. A move beyond this level would represent a change from the current pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
As of October 9, NHPC is trading below its short-term, medium-term, and long-term moving averages on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, the stock is trading below its 10-week, 30-week and 100-week moving averages.
Shareholding disclosures through June 2026 show a change in ownership. Government promoter holding declined by about 6 percentage points between March and June, while foreign and domestic institutional ownership increased.
Holder Category | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Promoters | 67.40% | 67.40% | 67.40% | 61.39% |
FIIs | 10.05% | 10.39% | 10.34% | 12.29% |
DIIs (incl. MFs) | 10.54% | 10.31% | 10.78% | 14.54% |
Other holders | 12.01% | 11.90% | 11.48% | 11.78% |
(Sources: NHPC official quarterly shareholding filings; Screener; ET Money.)
The promoter stake declined from 67.40% to 61.39%; FII ownership rose from 10.05% in September 2025 to 12.29% in June 2026. Combined domestic institutional holdings rose to about 14.54%. These changes do not necessarily indicate the direction of future trading.
SJVN is a hydro-focused listed company; NTPC has diversified generation capacity; and Tata Power has integrated distribution and renewables. The companies differ in leverage, tariff structures, generation mix and development risk.
Company | Business Focus | Valuation Basis (P/E) | Principal Consideration |
|---|---|---|---|
NHPC | Hydro generation | 19.3x | Project debt |
Hydro/renewables | 33.7x | Project commissioning | |
Diversified generation | 10.8x | Fuel and capex exposure |
(Sources: Screener peer company pages.)
NHPC’s hydro generation revenue model is regulated; its ROCE of 5.75% and borrowings of about ₹52,327 crore are relevant to valuation comparisons. Regulated equity, profit per unit of generation, debt servicing and construction completion are additional comparison points.
Hydrology, Geology and Commissioning: Rainfall, snowmelt and river flows influence energy generation, while tunnelling conditions, landslides, floods and clearances can delay hydro projects. A postponement in commercial operations can extend capitalised interest and defer regulated earnings.
Debt, Interest Costs and Cash Flow: Consolidated borrowings rose to about ₹52,327 crore as of March 2026. Higher financing costs, capital commitments and operating cash conversion can affect equity returns before new units begin generating tariff-backed income.
Tariff, Policy and Valuation Risks: CERC tariff rules, the allowed return on equity, plant availability incentives, debtor collections, and PSU sentiment shape long-term profitability. Project cost overruns or inability to recover approved costs could weaken returns; a lower valuation multiple could offset earnings growth.
NHPC owns and operates hydro assets and participates in India’s demand for flexible low-carbon electricity. Q1 FY27 revenue rose to ₹3,808 crore from ₹3,214 crore, and generation was 8,918 MU versus 8,345 MU. Commissioning timelines and the conversion of the larger asset base into cash returns are factors linked to future results.
The data points include regulated revenue, borrowings of about ₹52,327 crore, ROCE of 5.75%, and hydrology and construction risk.
The 2,000 MW Subansiri Lower project comprises eight 250 MW units. A Ministry of Power release dated 16 March 2026 reported two units commissioned and projected phased completion of the balance by December 2026. NHPC subsequently reported commissioning another 250 MW unit during Q1 FY27. Timelines are company plans, not guaranteed completion dates.
Other projects and investments include the Teesta VI development, additional hydro capacity, and renewable energy initiatives. Schedules may change with geological issues, local conditions, contracting and evacuation readiness. Unit-wise commercial operation dates are distinct from current earnings capacity.
Hydro stations selling electricity under regulated tariff arrangements generally recover permitted costs and earn an allowed return on admitted equity, subject to plant availability, normative operating parameters and regulatory approvals. This differs from a merchant power model, where market prices determine revenue.
Revenue can be affected by seasonal generation, incentive or penalty calculations, tariff true-ups, delayed billing recovery and project expenses. Newly commissioned assets contribute to revenue once tariff orders recognise approved capital costs.
At the October reference price, the company has a dividend yield near 2.20%, equivalent to a trailing dividend of about ₹1.61 per share. The payout depends on board declarations, profitability, government ownership priorities and capex funding needs; it is not a guaranteed future return.
Valuation multiples for power PSUs have varied across policy and renewable investment cycles. Earnings quality and return on incremental capital are factors linked to valuation, as is announced spending. Capex may compete with future distributions.
Source: Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ), Opstra, BSE
An illustrative 6% annual price compounding assumption gives about ₹76.2 for 2027 and ₹92 for 2030; these figures are mathematical scenarios, not formal analyst targets.
Large hydropower projects require investment for years before revenue begins. The consolidated balance sheet showed borrowings of approximately ₹52,327 crore as of March 2026.
Commissioning of Subansiri Lower units, other hydro developments, electricity demand, flexible power requirements and regulated tariff recognition are long-term drivers.
Hydrology, geological surprises, delayed commissioning, debt servicing, tariff approvals, collection delays and changes in valuation are risk factors.
SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000006396).
Founded in 1986, Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ) brings decades of experience in India’s equity markets. DSIJ's research combines fundamental analysis with price action, guided by disciplined risk management and capital preservation. They follow a structured, data-driven approach designed to help investors and traders make informed decisions beyond short-term market noise.
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