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By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)
Trade Setup for June 12: Nifty remains under pressure as it failed to close above the previous day’s high for 12 consecutive sessions. The 23,000-23,100 zone is crucial support. A close below 23,000 may drag it towards 22,800 and 22,700, while strength may return only above 23,304 and 23,542, backed by a higher low and higher high formation going ahead.
Source: Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)
The Nifty 50 index opened with a gap-down on Thursday but recovered steadily during the early and middle part of the session. However, the recovery failed to sustain in the afternoon trade, and the index once again came under pressure in the later part of the day. From the day’s high, the Nifty gave up nearly 165 points and ended at 23,161.60, down 53.35 points or 0.23%.
Thursday’s price action resulted in the formation of a small-bodied candle with a long upper shadow. This was the third such formation in the last four sessions, clearly indicating that every minor bounce is meeting selling pressure at higher levels. The 8-EMA once again acted as a resistance, keeping the short-term trend under pressure.
For the last seven sessions, the Nifty has been moving between the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the previous up-move from the April 2 low to the April 21 high. This narrow movement reflects indecision, but the repeated failure to hold higher levels keeps the bias weak.
The index has also failed to close above the previous day’s high for 12 consecutive sessions. The broader trading range remains limited to 23,070-23,560.
On Thursday, the index almost tested the June 8 low and closed below the previous day’s low. It is now trading near the previous week’s low. More importantly, the Nifty has failed to close above the previous week’s high for eight consecutive weeks, highlighting the absence of strength on the upside.
Volumes declined further and stayed below average for the seventh straight session. The 14-period daily RSI has retreated from its change-in-polarity zone and slipped below the 38 mark. The MACD remains below the zero line, while the MACD line continues to decline, suggesting that bearish momentum is still intact.
For now, the 23,000-23,100 zone remains the key support area on a closing basis. This zone has been tested a few times in the last four sessions, but the index has not yet broken it decisively on a closing basis. This also shows the importance of the 61.8 per cent retracement level.
A close below 23,000 would confirm an extension of the downtrend and may open the way towards 22,800 and 22,700. On the upside, the index needs to close above 23,304 and 23,542, which are the 8-EMA and 20-DMA levels, respectively, to show early signs of strength.
For a meaningful trend reversal, the Nifty must first form a higher low and then a higher high. Until that happens, the market structure remains weak, and the strategy should continue to favour a negative bias.
SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000006396).
Founded in 1986, Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ) brings decades of experience in India’s equity markets. DSIJ's research combines fundamental analysis with price action, guided by disciplined risk management and capital preservation. They follow a structured, data-driven approach designed to help investors and traders make informed decisions beyond short-term market noise.
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This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market investments are subject to risks. DSIJ Wealth Advisory Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Reg. No: INH000006396) and Investment Adviser (Reg. No: INA000001142). Please consult your financial adviser before investing.
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