Updated as of 12:55 PM IST
Nifty trades below the 24,900 level on Monday, November 9, as selling pressure continues to weigh on the benchmark index. After the initial slump, the index attempted to recover; however, it failed to sustain at higher levels and declined again. Around 12:24 PM, Nifty was trading at 24,894.60, down 91.80 points or 0.37%. The inability to hold the recovery indicates that sellers remain active at higher levels, while options data suggests that the 25,000 mark could prove difficult to cross during the remaining trading session.
Call Writing Dominates as Traders Defend Higher Levels
The options chain indicates greater activity on the Call side, suggesting a cautious-to-bearish undertone. Total Call open interest (OI) stood at 35.19 crore compared with put OI of 32.02 crore. More importantly, the change in open interest showed an addition of 16.4 crore on the Call side against 7.93 crore on the put side. This indicates that fresh Call positions have increased at more than twice the pace of put positions.
Strike-wise data shows the highest Call OI concentration at 25,000, with approximately 3.1 crore, followed by 25,100 with around 2.4 crore. Significant Call additions were also visible at 24,950 and 25,000, making this zone an important resistance area. Unless these positions begin to unwind, any recovery towards these levels could face renewed selling pressure.
Nifty Weekly Expiry Outlook: Can the 24,900 Support Hold?
On the downside, the 24,900 strike carries the highest put OI near the prevailing market price, at approximately 2.35 crore contracts, followed by 24,800 with nearly 1.95 crore. Fresh put additions at both strikes suggest that traders are positioning for support around these levels.
However, with Nifty already hovering around 24,900, this support faces an immediate test. A sustained move below 24,850 could increase the possibility of a decline towards 24,800. If the index breaches 24,800, the next downside levels to monitor would be 24,750 and 24,700.
The maximum pain level stands at 24,900, indicating the strike at which the aggregate theoretical payout to option buyers would be lowest at expiry. This makes 24,900 an important reference point, although maximum pain does not guarantee that the index will settle at that level.
Meanwhile, the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 0.981 for the selected strikes, while the overall PCR is lower at 0.91. The relatively heavier Call positioning suggests that the market has yet to establish a convincing bullish bias. India VIX stood at 17.39, down 1.04 points, indicating some easing in expected volatility.
What Strategy Should Traders Follow?
With 24,900 acting as the immediate reference level, traders should closely monitor price behaviour around 24,950 and 25,000. If Nifty attempts another recovery but fails to sustain above 24,950, while Call OI remains elevated, it would strengthen the case for a move towards 24,850 and subsequently 24,800.
Conversely, a sustained recovery above 24,950, accompanied by a reduction in Call OI, could allow the index to retest 25,000. A convincing breakout above 25,000 would be required to improve the intraday outlook, with 25,050 and 25,100 emerging as the next levels to watch.
For bearish trades, confirmation of rejection near resistance or a sustained breakdown below 24,850 would be preferable to entering positions simply because Call OI is high. Bullish trades would require evidence of price strength and Call unwinding. Defined-risk option spreads may be more suitable than unhedged option selling, particularly on expiry day.
Overall, the options setup favours a cautious approach with a mild bearish bias as long as Nifty remains below 24,950–25,000. The 24,800 level remains the important downside support, while a decisive move beyond either boundary could determine the direction for the remaining session.
Updated as of 11:00 AM IST
Indian equity markets entered Monday, November 9, with the Nifty 50 trading near 24,933 during the morning session. The index was below the 24,986.40 level displayed in the previous session's open interest snapshot, reflecting a pullback during early trading following Sunday's Muhurat session.
This week's Nifty options expire today rather than Tuesday, as the exchange will remain closed on November 10 for Diwali Balipratipada. The revised expiry schedule Put greater attention on intraday option writing, unwinding and the index's ability to hold important strike levels.
The latest charts place Nifty close to the 24,900 maximum pain level, while substantial Call additions near 24,950–25,000 suggest that any recovery may face resistance.
Options Data Shows Mixed Positioning Ahead of Expiry
The November 9 intraday data shows a Put-Call Ratio (PCR) of 0.91. A reading below one indicates relatively higher Call positioning in the measured series, suggesting a cautious market bias rather than strong bullish conviction.
Maximum pain stands at 24,900, close to the index's morning level of 24,932.90. Although maximum pain is not a guaranteed settlement point, its proximity to the spot price makes 24,900 an important level to monitor.
The change in the open interest chart shows an aggregate Call change of 3,572.48 lakh against Put change of 3,283.26 lakh. This indicates greater Call-side activity in the displayed data, although strike-wise positioning provides a clearer picture of nearby resistance and support.
Separately, the November 8 overall OI snapshot showed total Calls of 1,892.87 lakh and Put of 2,426.49 lakh. These figures relate to an earlier reading and should not be compared directly with Monday's intraday PCR.
Call Open Interest: 25,000 Emerges as Major Resistance
On the Call side, the previous OI snapshot showed the largest concentration at 25,500, at roughly 120 lakh, followed by significant positions at 25,000, 25,100 and 25,200.
For today's expiry, however, the change in the OI chart is more relevant to the immediate trading range. Fresh Call additions are particularly prominent at 25,000, with substantial activity also visible at 24,950 and 25,100.
With Nifty trading below 24,950, that strike forms the first resistance. A sustained move above it could open the way to 25,000, where fresh Call writing may limit further gains.
If the index clears 25,000 and Call writers begin unwinding, the next upside references would be 25,050 and 25,100. Without such unwinding, rallies towards the psychological 25,000 mark could attract renewed selling pressure.
Put Open Interest: 24,900 Becomes Crucial Support
The intraday change in the OI chart shows the strongest nearby Put additions around 24,900, followed by considerable activity at 24,950 and 24,800. This highlights 24,900 as the immediate support reference.
The earlier OI snapshot showed the highest absolute Put concentration at 24,500, with notable positions at 24,600, 24,700 and 24,800. However, these lower strikes are farther from the prevailing market price and are less relevant to the first intraday test.
As long as Nifty holds 24,900 and Put writers maintain their positions, the index could attempt another move towards 24,950–25,000.
A sustained break below 24,900, particularly with Put unwinding, would weaken the immediate setup and shift focus to 24,850, then 24,800. Further weakness could bring 24,700 into focus if selling pressure accelerates.
Nifty Weekly Expiry Outlook: Can 25,000 Be Reclaimed?
The options setup places Nifty between support at 24,900 and resistance in the 24,950–25,000 zone. The PCR of 0.91 suggests caution, while higher aggregate Call-side changes indicate that the upside faces meaningful hurdles.
A sustained move above 24,950 could trigger a recovery towards 25,000. A decisive breakout above 25,000, supported by Call unwinding, could extend the move towards 25,050–25,100.
Conversely, a failure to hold 24,900 could push Nifty towards 24,850 and 24,800. The maximum pain level at 24,900 may remain an intraday reference, but rapid shifts in positioning can change the picture.
For now, 24,900–25,000 appears to be the immediate expiry range, with 24,800 and 25,100 marking the next levels to watch if either boundary breaks. As weekly contracts expire today, traders should watch changes in OI alongside price movement rather than relying on the existing positions alone.
