By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)
India’s banking sector enters FY27 with credit growth, rising digital payments and resilient demand. However, geopolitical risks, deposit competition, funding costs and asset-quality concerns remain key challenges. Private and PSU banks are showing divergent performance, while investors must track NIMs, CASA, credit costs and loan growth.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in India for FY26 stood at 7.6%. For FY27, the Indian central bank has estimated the GDP growth rate to be 6.9% due to increasing global uncertainties and higher cost inflation.
The banking sector will be an important contributor to this growth.
Bank credit in India has grown at 16.08% YoY in FY26 compared to a muted growth in FY25, when credit in the banking system had grown above 20%. On the other hand, deposits have increased by 13.47% YoY.
This increase in credit has been attributed to the growth in retail loans, MSME and NBFC lending. In contrast, the growth in deposits has been slower since people started saving in equities, mutual funds, and alternative investments.
In the latest data, growth in bank credit has surged to 19.3% YoY as of July 31, 2026.
The banking sector is well established in India. It has been serving the credit and banking needs of the economy. Over the past two-and-a-half decades, there have been some tremendous changes in the Indian banking system, from the initial phase of ATMs to the more advanced phase of RTGS, NEFT, IMPS, and UPI. The industry is now working to expand into digital currency.
RBI serves as the apex regulatory body for the Indian banking industry under the Banking Regulation Act, 1949 and the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934.
This enables banks to cater to various sectors of the economy, such as large corporates, retail, MSMEs, agriculture, and also the underserved parts of society.
Banks generate income mainly through borrowing at low-interest rates from depositors and then lending at higher interest rates. The resulting amount is the difference, which is called the net interest spread. They earn huge revenue through various kinds of fees related to accounts, transactions and cards, besides investing.
Fund-Based Revenue | Non-Interest / Fee Income |
Interest income from retail lending | Processing and origination fees |
Interest income on corporate lending | Bancassurance fees |
Income from yield on government bonds | Trade finance, including LCs and BGs |
Repo lending and call money | Credit card & Merchant MDR |
The fund-based revenue normally constitutes the majority of the bank’s revenue, with non-fund or fee revenue being the additional source of income.
(Source: TradingView)
Stocks of banking companies have beaten the market performance in 2026 thus far. The Nifty Bank index has fallen 3.27%, compared to the decline of 7.25% in Nifty 50, as seen in the figure above.
It implies that the Nifty Bank index is ahead of the benchmark Nifty 50 by about 4 percentage points in 2026 thus far. Both indices are still in negative territory.
A major factor affecting the broader banks’ index has been the stock-specific performance of the large banks. Notably, HDFC Bank shares fell more than 25% in 2026. In addition, the shares are trading near their 52-week low. This fall was led by governance concerns following the sudden resignation of its former chairman, Atanu Chakraborty.
(Source: Money Control)
The company also announced its Q1 FY27 results, which were less impressive than the market expected. In particular, the bank’s NIM dropped from 3.38% to 3.26%. Moreover, FIIs also reduced their stake to 41.82% in the June quarter, from 44.05% in March and 48.84% in June 2025.
(Source: Screener)
HDFC Bank accounts for a large part of the share of the Bank Nifty, which is 18.20%. Thus, the steep fall has impacted the entire banking index.
(Source: Nifty Bank Factsheet)
In addition, retail inflation (CPI) in India climbed to 4.45% for the month of July, staying above the 4% target of the RBI.
(Source: ET)
Economic uncertainty around the world, coupled with geopolitical risks, has created a risk-off attitude among investors. This attitude has resulted in FIIs leaving India and investing in emerging economies.
Bank Name | Market Cap (₹ crore) (August 21, 2026) | Bank Nifty Weightage (July 31, 2026) | PE (x) (August 21, 2026) | 2026 Returns (%) (August 21, 2026) | NIM (%) (Q1 FY27) | CASA (Q1 FY27) | Credit Cost |
11,20,311.43 | 18.20 | 14.14 | -26.66% | 3.26% | 32% | 0.40% | |
10,19,048.09 | 14.86 | 18.06 | 6.13% | 4.3% | 39.5% | - | |
9,68,014.87 | 10.09 | 11.22 | 6.49% | 2.86% | 39.24% | 0.27% | |
4,00,680.09 | 9.32 | 19.47 | -9.19% | 4.53% | 43.3% | 0.46% | |
3,87,805.76 | 8.81 | 14.02 | -2.24% | 3.46% | 38% | 0.63% | |
89,267.70 | 7.29 | 18.76 | 35.59% | 3.33% | 32.23% | 0.41% | |
78,349.59 | 5.50 | 59.39 | 12.96% | 3.35% | - | 1.74% | |
83,107.34 | 4.71 | 28.57 | 10.88% | 5.9% | 29% | 0.8% | |
74,789.08 | 4.67 | 32.11 | 1.33% | 6.0% | 50.8% | 1.13% | |
1,27,732.65 | 3.58 | 7.02 | -17.87% | 2.77% |
| 0.29% |
(Source: Screener, Q1 FY27 Investor Presentations)
Industry estimates suggest that India's banking industry will experience an earnings cycle upturn; however, the disparity between private and public sector banks may increase. Although private banks can derive benefits from better margins, better loan growth and asset quality, PSU banks may be subject to increasing credit costs, non-interest income decline and increasing staff expenses.
For the past three years, Indian banks have found it difficult to grow their core pre-provision operating profit (PPoP) owing to weak balance sheet growth, increased unsecured loan costs and low interest rates. However, things are expected to change as core PPoP growth is expected to surge into the teens over the FY27 to FY29 period.
Private banks are anticipated to perform relatively well in the next two years. The liquidity coverage ratio difference between private and PSU banks has been narrowing and has thus become a lesser advantage for PSU banks compared to what it was in the last few years. In addition, private banks are anticipated to benefit from a greater share of FCNR(B) deposits.
The improved performance of private banks is also tied to improving economic performance. The incremental disbursement spread is anticipated to improve due to the improvement in the portfolio of unsecured lending. At the same time, asset quality risks associated with unsecured lending have improved significantly, thus helping reduce credit costs.
(Source: TradingView)
However, PSU banks have been outperforming private sector banks until now in 2026. The Nifty PSU Bank index is up by 0.57%, whereas the Nifty Private Bank index is down by 4.16%.
The small increase in PSU banks has largely been due to the State Bank of India (SBI), which has the most significant weightage in the Nifty PSU Bank index and has increased by more than 6.5% in 2026.
(Source: NSE)
But the increase is still quite small. The above data indicate that PSU banks have outperformed private sector banks until now, although no big returns have been generated by the PSU bank sector in 2026.
The Indian banking industry in 2026 is governed by significant reforms in regulation concerning the development of a digital authorisation regime, updating of evidence laws developed in colonial times and plans for growth aiming at Viksit Bharat 2047. The main focus of the regulators is on risk management, cybersecurity, and efficient flow of credit.
The recent gathering of Public Sector Banks (PSB) confluence in 2026 was organised by the Department of Financial Services (DFS). It included senior officials of the PSBs and the government to chalk out the future agenda for the Indian banking sector. The two-day confluence was held from August 17, 2026, to August 18, 2026.
The following things were discussed during the session:
(Source: PIB)
Alongside these discussions, government initiatives have slowly expanded access to formal banking services across India. Bank branches act as the foundation of India’s formal banking sector. As of July 17, 2026, there were more than 1.81 lakh bank branches in India.
(Source: PIB)
Banking facilities are not restricted to brick-and-mortar banks alone. The banking system also avails itself of services rendered through Business Correspondents (BCs) as well as India Post Payments Bank (IPPB) outlets. As per statistics available on March 6, 2026, 99.92% of villages in India were served by a bank facility within a radius of 5 km.
Apart from this, the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY), which was introduced in the year 2014, is another important government measure that has facilitated access to banking services. The scheme allows people who do not have access to banks to open zero-balance savings bank accounts.
As of July 2026, PMJDY had:
In addition, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has changed India’s payments mechanism.
Between FY16-17 and FY25-26:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recognised UPI as the world's largest real-time payment system in terms of transaction volume.
As of July 2026, UPI recorded:
Metric | July 2026 |
Transaction Volume | 2,365.8 crore |
Transaction Value | ₹29,87,880.49 crore |
Banks Live on UPI | 741 |
(Source: PIB)
(Source: International Energy Agency (IEA))
(Source: Care Edge Rating)
The banking industry in India is entering FY27 with healthy credit demand and positive liquidity trends. Nevertheless, the 19.3% credit growth achieved until July 31, 2026, is unlikely to continue for the rest of the fiscal year.
The credit growth rate may slow down to reach the anticipated 14.5-15.5% mark during FY27. The greater reliance of companies and NBFCs on market funds, including bonds, will make them less dependent on bank lending.
(Source: ET BFSI)
Nevertheless, the overall picture regarding the prospects of the banking industry remains upbeat.
The growth is envisaged to be driven by-
Those who wish to invest in bank shares can do it in three ways:
Each option comes with a different level of risk, diversification and control.
Some of the largest bank stocks in India in terms of market capitalisation are HDFC Bank Ltd, ICICI Bank Ltd, State Bank of India (SBI), Axis Bank Ltd and Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.
HDFC Bank Ltd is the largest bank stock in India in terms of market capitalisation when compared to other banks.
The bank stock that carries the highest weight in the Bank Nifty index as of 31st July 2026 is HDFC Bank Ltd, carrying an 18.20% weight.
It depends on various considerations, as both PSU and private banks have their own advantages and disadvantages in terms of their growth and valuations
Various metrics one needs to consider before investing in bank stocks include NIM, CASA ratio, credit cost, asset quality, loan growth, deposit growth, P/E ratio and P/B ratio.
NIM, or Net Interest Margin, measures the difference between the interest a bank earns on its loans and the interest it pays on its deposits and borrowings. A higher and stable NIM generally favours the bank's profitability and performance
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Founded in 1986, Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ) brings decades of experience in India’s equity markets. DSIJ's research combines fundamental analysis with price action, guided by disciplined risk management and capital preservation. They follow a structured, data-driven approach designed to help investors and traders make informed decisions beyond short-term market noise.
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This should not be construed as soliciting investment. Investors’ discretion is required. Kindly consult your financial expert before investing. No need to issue cheques by investors while subscribing to IPO. Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.
SCREENERS
Screeners is not Exchange-approved products and any disputes related to the same will not be dealt on the Exchange platform.
SECURITIES
Securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory.
IPV
Account would be open after all procedure relating to IPV and client due diligence is completed.
IMAGES
The images used are only for representation purpose. Proper due diligence has been done for the images and the image is not of any artist. The same is captured from royalty free sites.
THIRD PARTY PRODUCT DISCLAIMER
Bajaj Financial Securities Limited is a distributor for Non-Broking Products/Services such as Mutual Funds, Mutual Funds SIP, IPO, Bonds, Insurance, PMS, Global Investing, any other third-party products/services. These are not Exchange Traded Products, and we are only acting as distributors. All disputes with respect to the distribution activity, would not have access to SCORES/ODR, Exchange investor redressal forum or Arbitration mechanism. Please refer to the detailed disclaimer for Third-Party Products.
As per SEBI circular no. SEBI/HO/MIRSD/MIRSD-PoD-1/P/CIR/2023/84 dated June 08, 2023, Stockbrokers are required to upstream the entire client funds lying with them to the Clearing Corporation. Based on client’s request the funds’ release request must be placed with the Clearing Corporation. Based on the internal process and cut-off timelines of the Clearing Corporation the funds will be released to the Stock Broker. In view of this new process, as specified by the regulatory and the cut-off time of Clearing Corporation/Banks processing the funds, Bajaj Financial Securities Limited cannot commit the exact time for releasing funds payout to its client. Clients are requested to note that, Bajaj Financial Securities Limited will not be responsible for any inconvenience caused to clients due to delay in release of funds payout, including fines, delayed charges, defaults, etc.
