Share Market Today | Gift Nifty Indicates Cautious Start

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Synopsis:

Latest market updates include CDSL lowers transaction charges, Escort Kubota to invest ₹4500 crore, Jupiter Wagon to discuss fundraising on May 19, JSW Steel's 0.4% YoY rise in crude steel production, India sees 8% jump in FY24 coal import, plus other global market news.

Latest Market News

  1. CDSL reduces transaction charges to improve investor experience in India's capital market.
  2. Escorts Kubota plans ₹4500 crore investment over the next 3-4 years.
  3. Jupiter Wagon has a meeting on May 19 to discuss fundraising.
  4. JSW Steel reports a 0.4% YoY increase in April crude steel production despite iron ore supply constraints.
  5. India's coal import climbs 8% to 268 million tonnes in FY24.
  6. FIIs sold ₹2,117.5 crore while DIIs bought ₹2,709.81 crore in equities on Friday.

In-Depth Market Insights: Global Outlook, Derivatives & More

US Share Market News

1. Performance Overview:

  • On Friday, the Dow ended higher, marking its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The rally widened with mostly positive quarterly results boosting stocks. However, concerns about rising inflation are clouding expectations for potential rate cuts.

2. Economic Indicators:

  • Wall Street is likely to stay quiet for a bit as investors wait for important inflation reports next Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors are hoping to see signs that inflation is slowing down after a surprise rise earlier this year dashed hopes for early interest rate cuts.

3. Sector-Specific Movements:

  • Stocks ticked up modestly in Friday’s session, with the Dow Jones climbing 125 points (0.3%), the S&P 500 edging up 0.1%, and the NASDAQ dipping slightly by 0.03%. Overall, the major indexes saw weekly gains ranging from 1% to 2%.

4. Corporate Results:

  • Investors are celebrating as most S&P 500 companies beat expectations in the latest earnings season. Over 80% of them have reported, with earnings up by 7.8%, surpassing April's forecast of 5.1% growth, says LSEG IBES.

Other Asset Classes

1. Treasury Yields:

  • On Friday, US Treasury yields went up due to gloomy consumer sentiment data, hinting at higher inflation expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield rose over 5 basis points to hit 4.5%, while the 2-year yield climbed over 6 basis points to reach 4.87%.

2. Currency:

  • The dollar rose slightly after a report on US consumer sentiment, as investors reviewed statements from Federal officials. Attention is now shifting to upcoming inflation data. The dollar index increased by 0.09% to reach 105.31.

3. Commodities:

  • Oil prices dropped almost $1 per barrel on Friday as US Fed officials hinted at prolonged high interest rates which could dampen demand for crude. Brent crude settled 1.3% lower at $82.79 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.26% to $78.26 a barrel.
  • Gold prices rose on Friday, marking their strongest week in a month, as demand surged after disappointing US jobs data. Spot gold increased by 1% to $2,369.49 per ounce, while US gold futures for June delivery settled 1.5% higher at $2,375.00 per ounce.

Asian Markets

1. General Trends:

  • Asia-Pacific markets dipped on Monday as investors digested China's April inflation figures, which surpassed expectations. China's consumer prices rose by 0.3% year-on-year, exceeding Reuters' forecast of 0.2%.

2. Specific Index Performance:

  • Japan's Nikkei 225 started 0.32% lower, with the Topix down 0.46%.
  • South Korea's Kospi edged up 0.29%, while the Kosdaq slightly dropped in morning trading.

India Market Outlook

1. GIFT Nifty Projection:

  • Gift Nifty indicates a cautious start for the Indian Market, following weak trends in Asia. The Nifty spot might open lower and could trade with a downward trend in the range of 21900-22130.

2. Nifty Short-Term Outlook:

  • The Indian stock market had a bearish week, with the index closing at 22055, down 1.87%. Both Nifty Midcap and Small cap indices plummeted by 2.75% and 4.90% respectively, underperforming global peers.
  • A bearish trend was confirmed by a sizable bear candle with lower highs and lows, closing below the 50-day EMA at 22223. To reverse this trend, sustained formation of higher high-lows is necessary, otherwise, the index could extend its decline towards March and April lows near 21700.
  • The surge in India VIX by over 80% indicates rising market volatility, reminiscent of past events like the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. A breach of 20 in VIX could signal further volatility. Nifty's short-term support lies at 21700, supported by the presence of a 20-week EMA.

3. Intraday Levels:

  • Nifty: Intraday resistance is situated at 22080, followed by 22150 levels. Conversely, downside support is located at 21960, followed by 21900.
  • Bank Nifty: Intraday resistance is positioned at 47550, followed by 47790, while downside support is found at 47210, followed by 47000.
  • Fin Nifty: Intraday resistance is positioned at 21140, followed by 21250, while downside support is found at 21010, followed by 20930.

Derivative Market Analysis

1. Nifty:

  • The Nifty index appears to have crucial support at the 22,000 level, indicated by the highest put OI addition. However, if the price drops and remains below 22,000, momentum loss could occur. Conversely, significant resistance levels are at 22,500 and 22,300, marked by major call OI additions.
  • The accumulation of call and put OI at 22,000 suggests a pivotal point for the day. Option chain analysis suggests a range between 22,000 and 22,300, with potential directional shifts upon breaking this range. The Nifty's put-call ratio has increased slightly to 0.91.

2. Bank Nifty:

  • The major call OI stands at 48,000 and 47,800, suggesting resistance. Conversely, with the highest put OI at 47,500, there's a chance for correction if the price stays below that level, potentially heading towards 47,000. The concentration of OI at 47,500 suggests a straddle formation, making it a crucial level.
  • The option chain analysis suggests that Bank Nifty's decisive range lies between 47,000 and 47,500, indicating a significant movement upon breaking this range.

3. Mid Cap Nifty:

  • Option chain data indicates a strong call OI at 11,000 and 10,950 levels, making them resistance points, while major put OI is at 10,700 and 10,800 levels, serving as support.
  • This suggests a narrow range of 10,800 to 11,000 for today’s weekly expiry, with potential significant movements upon breaking this range.

Stay on top of the latest market news with Bajaj Broking’s insights. Our point-to-point expert analysis digs deep into the surface, empowering you with a unique perspective on the events in the domestic as well as the global stock market. Get all the current share market news, including US share market updates in one place and make wise investment decisions.

Disclaimer: Investments in the securities market are subject to market risk, read all related documents carefully before investing.

This content is for educational purposes only. Securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory.

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