Global markets showed volatility as geopolitical tensions and rising crude prices weighed on sentiment. U.S. markets ended mixed, while Indian indices declined sharply. Technical indicators and derivative data suggest a cautious outlook, with Nifty likely to trade within key support and resistance levels.
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Global markets remained volatile on Wednesday as investors shifted their focus from inflation data to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Concerns around the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran and potential disruptions in global oil supply weighed on market sentiment, keeping investors cautious.
U.S. equity markets closed mixed as geopolitical developments overshadowed moderate inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined the most among the three major indices, while technology stocks helped the Nasdaq Composite post a marginal gain toward the end of the session.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the U.S. Labor Department showed that inflation remained moderate in February and largely in line with market expectations. Annual CPI growth has now moved closer to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%, suggesting inflation pressures remain contained for now.
Despite the benign inflation data, market sentiment remained cautious due to energy supply concerns. Iran continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route. At the same time, OPEC signaled higher Saudi output while the International Energy Agency announced the release of strategic oil reserves to stabilize supply.
Oil prices surged as supply risks increased amid escalating geopolitical tensions. U.S. crude and Brent crude both moved higher, reflecting concerns that disruptions in the Middle East could tighten global energy markets.
Precious metals also remained firm, with gold and silver trading at elevated levels as investors sought safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level in about a month, reflecting shifting expectations around interest rates and economic conditions.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) also remained slightly higher compared to the previous session.
Asian equity markets traded lower as rising oil prices and inflation concerns dampened investor sentiment. Major regional indices, including Japan’s Nikkei 225, Australia’s ASX 200, and South Korea’s KOSPI, all ended in negative territory.
Higher energy costs have raised fears of renewed inflation pressures across global economies, which could complicate monetary policy decisions for central banks.
Gift Nifty indicated a negative opening for Indian equities, reflecting weak global cues and continued uncertainty in international markets. The Nifty index is expected to trade in the range of 23,500–24,000 during the session.
In the previous session, Indian benchmark indices closed sharply lower as investors reacted to mixed signals surrounding the Middle East conflict and its potential impact on global inflation and economic growth.
The Sensex declined significantly, while the Nifty also ended lower. At the same time, India VIX, the market’s volatility gauge, jumped sharply, indicating expectations of heightened short-term volatility.
Most sectoral indices ended in the red. Auto stocks led the decline, followed by financials and realty. However, some defensive sectors such as pharma, energy, and healthcare managed to post modest gains.
Broader markets also witnessed weakness, with the Nifty Midcap index declining while small-cap indices also closed lower.
From a technical perspective, the Nifty formed a large bearish candle on the daily chart with a lower high and lower low. This indicates weak follow-through after the recent pullback and suggests that selling pressure remains active in the market.
The index also surrendered most of the gains recorded in the previous two sessions.
Immediate support for the index is seen in the 23,700–23,800 zone, which coincides with the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) and an important trendline connecting the lows of CY23 and CY25.
If the index manages to hold above this support zone, it may move into a consolidation phase within the 23,700–24,400 range.
However, a break below 23,700, which represents the current week’s low, could open the door for further downside toward 23,500 and 23,200 in the coming sessions.
Volatility is expected to remain elevated due to uncertain global cues, rising crude oil prices, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
For Nifty, immediate resistance is placed near 23,940 and 24,050, while support levels are seen at 23,690 and 23,540.
For Bank Nifty, resistance is positioned around 55,900 and 56,180, while support levels are seen at 55,250 and 54,900.
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