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In the United States, household leverage expanded sharply in Q4 2025, with total household debt rising by +$191 billion to a record $18.8 trillion. Since January 2020, aggregate household debt has increased by +$4.6 trillion. The latest surge was primarily driven by mortgage debt, which climbed +$98 billion to $13.2 trillion. Meanwhile, credit card balances rose +$44 billion to an all-time high of $1.3 trillion, auto loans increased +$12 billion to $1.7 trillion, and student loan balances edged up +$11 billion to $1.7 trillion — all at record levels, underscoring persistent consumer credit expansion.
At the same time, trade diplomacy gained momentum. The United States and Taiwan finalized a landmark reciprocal trade agreement, lowering tariff rates to 15% from 20%. Signed in Washington under the auspices of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO), the pact signals deeper strategic alignment and sets the stage for billions of dollars in fresh investments across energy and technology sectors.
Meanwhile, Russia is evaluating a potential return to the US dollar settlement system as part of a broader economic alignment proposal involving fossil fuels, natural gas, offshore oil and critical raw materials, reflecting a possible shift in economic engagement strategies as per the report.
In Europe, the U.K. economy recorded modest growth in December 2025, with GDP expanding by 0.1% MoM, slowing from the revised 0.2% in the prior month. The moderation keeps pressure on the Bank of England to continue monetary easing as growth momentum remains fragile despite temporary boosts such as the recovery in auto production.
Turning to China, policy efforts to stabilize the crisis-hit property market are showing gradual traction. State-owned enterprises have begun acquiring foreclosed housing projects, signaling a measured attempt to absorb excess supply.
Concurrently, Beijing softened its stance on electric vehicle trade negotiations, allowing domestic EV manufacturers to engage independently with the European Union after Volkswagen secured a tariff reprieve for a China-made SUV model. This marks a pragmatic shift in China’s approach to resolving trade frictions with Brussels.
On the domestic front, *India’s headline CPI inflation for January stood at 2.75% YoY, marking the first release under the new CPI series (Base: 2024=100). The revised weighting structure is expected to reduce sensitivity to food price volatility and be more representative of the consumption basket. The new series food inflation surged sharply to 2.11% from a negative print in Dec 2025 suggesting constituents are driving an upside to food inflation. However, core inflation dropped to 3.4% from 4.6% in Dec 2025 in old series- clearly suggesting a downside to core inflation in the new series.
Encouragingly, trade negotiations are also progressing for India. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal indicated that India may secure zero-duty textile access to the US, similar to concessions granted to Bangladesh, with a deal expected by end-March.
In parallel, the commerce ministry is set to operationalize eight components of the Rs 25,060-crore Export Promotion Mission, spanning e-commerce, factoring services and warehousing. The mission operates under two integrated sub-schemes — Niryat Protsahan (financial enablers) and Niryat Disha (non-financial enablers) — aimed at strengthening India’s export competitiveness.
Asian market
Asian markets opened mostly lower today followed by the US market after fears about artificial intelligence disruption in the U.S. sent the S&P 500 to a third straight day of losses.
Other Asset Class
* The US 10Y yield fell 8.1 basis points to 4.11%, marking its biggest decline since October 10 and its fifth drop in the past six sessions.
* WTI crude futures were largely unchanged at $62.85 per barrel, while Brent crude futures held steady at $67.53 per barrel.
* Gold was trading near $4,950/oz, while silver was trading near 76.5$/oz.
* (DXY) Dollar index was little changed at 96.93.
* The Indian rupee gained 0.1% against the U.S. dollar to 90.59.
* The benchmark 10-year bond yield declined over 2 basis points to 6.6833%.
* Bitcoin is down about 1.7% from yesterday’s close. trading near $66420
Economic Calendar – 13.02.2026
* EURO Flash GDP q/q (Expected: 0.3% versus Previous: 0.3%)
* U.S. CPI m/m (Expected: 0.3% versus Previous: 0.3%)
FII DII data on 12 February 2026 (Rs in Cr)
FII: +108.42
DII: +276.85
Stock ban in F&O: SAIL, SAMMAANCAP
Infosys: The company expands its partnership with ExxonMobil to develop AI infrastructure and data center immersion fluids.
CESC: Company's arm, Purvah Green Power, receives a Letter of Award from the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) for wind power projects.
NATCO Pharma: The company plans to incorporate a subsidiary in Chile with an investment of $300,000 and appoints Amit Parekh as the chief financial officer.
REC: The company will transfer its Project SPV, Bellary Davanagere, to Power Grid for Rs 13 crore.
PFC: The management confirms the entity will remain a government company post-REC merger and sees no material constraints in bank borrowings.
J Kumar Infra: The company secures a Rs. 616 crore order from NBCC India for redevelopment works in New Delhi.
eMudhra: The company enters into a pact with LankaPay to build Sri Lanka's national digital signature ecosystem.
HCC: The company's JV secures a Rs. 578 crore railway contract from the Northeast Frontier Railway.
GAIL India: The company appoints Deepak Gupta as the chairman and managing director with a tenure through Feb. 28, 2029.
AU Small Finance Bank: RBI approves the re-appointment of Sanjay Agarwal as the MD and chief executive officer for a period of three years.
Capital India: Shareholders approve the appointment of Surender Rana as the Whole-time Director and Executive VC.
Dynamic Cables: The company launches PVC Insulated Green Building Wires.
Shriram Properties: The company's arm resolves a commercial dispute with the West Bengal government by conveying 42.4 acres of land at Uttarpara.
Neogen Chemicals: The company receives an additional Rs 60 crore insurance claim for the March 2025 Dahej fire, taking total receipts to Rs 140 crore.
WeWork India Management: Bombay HC disposes of a petition against the company's IPO following an unconditional withdrawal by the petitioner.
Hexaware Tech: The company enters into a pact with CareInsight to accelerate AI-driven healthcare transformation.
Onix Solar: The company will raise Rs 250 crore via a rights issue of 45.8 lakh shares at Rs 546 per share, with Feb.18 as the record date.
Rajesh Power: The company enters into a joint venture pact with VITS Total Power Solutions to form a new JV entity.
NIIT Learning: Company's arm, MST Holding GmbH, has decided to undergo voluntary dissolution.
Tasty Bites Eatables: The company's chairman Mr. Pradeep Poddar has resigned.
Godawari Power: The company gets environment conservation board's nod to expand Chhattisgarh plant capacity.
Coal India Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit falls 15.6% to Rs 7,166 crore Vs Rs 8,491.2 crore
Revenue declines 5.2% to Rs 34,924.2 crore Vs Rs 36,858.6 crore
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit grows 22.6% to Rs 11,946.4 crore Vs Rs 9,746.5 crore
Revenue rises 0.1% to Rs 1,67,422.9 crore Vs Rs 1,67,212.6 crore
Other income zooms 37% to Rs 3,307.5 crore Vs Rs 2,414.8 crore
Board declares interim dividend of Rs 6.25 per equity share
Hindalco Industries Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit sinks 45.1% to Rs 2,049 crore Vs Rs 3,735 crore
Revenue soars 13.9% to Rs 66,521 crore Vs Rs 58,390 crore
Exceptional loss stands at Rs 2,610 crore Vs loss of Rs 41 crore
Indraprastha Gas Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit surges 20.6% to Rs 393.8 crore Vs Rs 326.6 crore
Revenue grows 8.3% to Rs 4,067.5 crore Vs Rs 3,754.9 crore
Biocon Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit zooms nearly 6-fold to Rs 143.8 crore Vs Rs 25.1 crore
Revenue rises 9.2% to Rs 4,173 crore Vs Rs 3,821.4 crore
Exceptional loss stands at Rs 293.4 crore Vs gain of Rs 18.1 crore
Indian Hotels Company Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit spikes 50.9% to Rs 954.2 crore Vs Rs 632.5 crore
Revenue grows 12.2% to Rs 2,842 crore Vs Rs 2,533 crore
Honasa Consumer Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit surges 92.9% to Rs 50.2 crore Vs Rs 26 crore
Revenue jumps 16.2% to Rs 601.5 crore Vs Rs 517.5 crore
Muthoot Finance Q3 (Standalone YoY)
Profit zooms 94.9% to Rs 2,656.4 crore Vs Rs 1,363.1 crore
Revenue soars 64.1% to Rs 4,467.1 crore Vs Rs 2,721.4 crore
PI Industries Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit declines 16.5% to Rs 311.3 crore Vs Rs 372.7 crore
Revenue falls 27.6% to Rs 1,375.7 crore Vs Rs 1,900.8 crore
Exceptional gains stand at Rs 105.1 crore Vs Nil
Travel Food Services Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit jumps 35.7% to Rs 132.7 crore Vs Rs 97.7 crore
Revenue grows 11% to Rs 456.2 crore Vs Rs 410.9 crore
Engineers India Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit spikes 219.3% to Rs 347.2 crore Vs Rs 108.7 crore
Revenue jumps 58.3% to Rs 1,210.2 crore Vs Rs 764.6 crore
Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit grows 15.6% to Rs 394.3 crore Vs Rs 341.1 crore
Revenue soars 18.4% to Rs 1,449.5 crore Vs Rs 1,224.7 crore
Petronet LNG Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit falls 3.6% to Rs 869.6 crore Vs Rs 901.7 crore
Revenue declines 8.7% to Rs 11,163.8 crore Vs Rs 12,226.9 crore
Puravankara Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit stands at Rs 58.3 crore Vs loss of Rs 92.6 crore
Revenue zooms 236% to Rs 1,069.3 crore Vs Rs 318.2 crore
Vedant Fashions Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit slips 14.6% to Rs 134.9 crore Vs Rs 158 crore
Revenue declines 3.8% to Rs 491.7 crore Vs Rs 511.3 crore
Endurance Technologies Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit soars 20.2% to Rs 221.6 crore Vs Rs 184.4 crore
Revenue zooms 26.2% to Rs 3,608.2 crore Vs Rs 2,859.2 crore
Deepak Nitrite Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit rises 1.7% to Rs 99.8 crore Vs Rs 98.1 crore
Revenue grows 3.8% to Rs 1,975 crore Vs Rs 1,903.4 crore
Other income declines to Rs 8.5 crore Vs Rs 21 crore
Exceptional loss stands at Rs 12.8 crore Vs Nil
Hindustan Construction Company Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit stands at Rs 8 crore Vs loss of Rs 38.9 crore
Revenue falls 8% to Rs 925.3 crore Vs Rs 1,006.8 crore
Fine Organic Industries Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit drops 10.6% to Rs 73.9 crore Vs Rs 82.7 crore
Revenue rises 7.3% to Rs 554.8 crore Vs Rs 516.8 crore
Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit surges 84.2% to Rs 36.4 crore Vs Rs 19.8 crore
Revenue zooms 56% to Rs 525.5 crore Vs Rs 336.9 crore
Schneider Electric Infrastructure Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit falls 12.2% to Rs 97 crore Vs Rs 110.5 crore
Revenue jumps 20.1% to Rs 1,029.2 crore Vs Rs 857.2 crore
Exceptional loss stands at Rs 24.58 crore Vs gain of Rs 17.65 crore
Cohance Lifesciences Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit plunges 76% to Rs 36.7 crore Vs Rs 153.1 crore
Revenue declines 19.5% to Rs 544.6 crore Vs Rs 676.2 crore
Mishra Dhatu Nigam Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit grows 8.3% to Rs 27.6 crore Vs Rs 25.5 crore
Revenue jumps 15.8% to Rs 275.6 crore Vs Rs 238 crore
Tega Industries Q3 (Consolidated YoY)
Profit tanks 63.7% to Rs 19.7 crore Vs Rs 54.2 crore
Revenue drops 1.4% to Rs 403.7 crore Vs Rs 409.3 crore
Jefferies On Petronet LNG
Recommendation - Underperform
Target ₹200
Earlier Target ₹225
December-25 Review: Weak print; Capital allocation worry
Capacity expansion at Dahej by March 26 has little committed offtake as of now
Progress on PDHPP project has been slow
Proceeding with LNG terminal on the East Coast where it faces stiff competition
Cut FY26-27E Ebitda 8%/6% on the miss and lower marketing margins
MS on Bharti Airtel
Like for its strong execution & free cash flow generation
MS team believe industry repair phase rising ARPUs will continue, reaffirmed by recent developments around improving monetization in tariff plans
They expect ARPUs to grow by mid-single digits (even without any further tariff support post 2026).
Team sees EBITDA rising by high-single to low-double digits for mobile wireless business, & 14% for overall India biz
Believe India is in a sweet spot in terms of capex cycle.
Core India (ex passive infra) one-year forward EV/ EBITDA multiple is 14x.
Premium multiples are likely to be sustained over the next 12 months as return ratios for core business likely reach 20% by F2028.
Goldman Sachs On HUL
Target Price ₹2750
Earlier Target ₹2800
Recommendation Buy
Q3: Gradual recovery ahead, multiple strategic initiatives
Home care growth likely to accelerate, as pricing growth likely to turn positive
Encouraging recovery in foods
Makes major changes to organization structure to drive speed and innovation
JPMorgan on IT Sector
Al fears driving a sharp correction
IT firms remain the plumbers of the technology world
Advances such as Claude code's Cowork plugin can meaningfully accelerate complex task
Agentic Al can write a lot more software
Definitely foresee partnerships among Al tool firms and IT Services firms that can create several new areas of work
Al will be another tool to address more work with the same budget like offshore labor, enterprise software, cloud have been in the past
Reverse DCF suggests that stocks bake in 4% terminal growth at current prices with no short term acceleration
Only case with >30% further downside is companies hit 0 terminal growth with no growth hereafter
Both these scenarios appear overly pessimistic to us given the new Al work streams emerging and the likely cyclical recovery
FCF/Div yields scream deep value and are crossing levels prior seen during market dislocation events such as GFC and COVID
Take a barbell approach to buy deep value in large caps
Overweight on INFOSYS, TCS, Persistent and Sagility
Goldman Sachs On Hindustan Aeronautics
Target Price ₹5255
Recommendation Neutral
Q3FY26 Results Review: Balanced risk-reward
Execution of Tejas Mk-1A order to be closely tracked
Margins impacted by higher than expected employee cost
Robust order book is comforting; waiting for the pick-up in executioncontinue to get closer to the customer - handling the cargo end-to-end
Despite a higher container mix, and better returns, trades at a discount to JSW Infra
Bernstein on Adani Ports
Maintain Outperform with target price of Rs 1,747
Adani Ports: Logistics the next growth engine
Adani Ports continues to be among top 3 preferred stocks
Remain watchful of developments in US and Mundra extension, but on fundamentals the company is on solid ground
They are already handling ~50% of containers coming/going out of India
Have grown volume at 15% CAGR last 10 years
Now they plan to handle them for longer-deeper in the supply chain
This we think will drive strong pricing power in the long term, as they continue to get closer to the customer - handling the cargo end-to-end
Despite a higher container mix, and better returns, trades at a discount to JSW Infra
Jefferies on Muthoot Finance
Maintain Buy; Hike target price to Rs 4750 from Rs 4500
Q3: Profit beat; Strong earnings momentum continues
Q3 PAT growth led by interest income write backs
Standalone AUM grew 51% year-on-year, but missed estimate due to lower LTV and quarter-on-quarter dip in tonnage
Core NIMs fell quarter-on-quarter; opex/ AUM & credit cost surprised positively
Strong gold prices, LTV buffer, easing of branch expansion norms should support healthy AUM growth
Steady NIMs, lower opex/ AUM & credit costs should drive 17% EPS CAGR, 25%+ ROE over FY26-28
Morgan Stanley On Indian Hotels
Target Price ₹780
Recommendation Equal-weight
Q3 - In-line Quarter; RevPAR growth picks up in Q4
Company seeing double-digit growth so far in Q4
Beyond RevPAR, top-line growth will also be driven by management fees, new business and recent acquisitions
IHCL is well run franchise, with sector leading ROCE
Limited valuation headroom keeps us Equal-weight
Jefferies On Hindalco
Target Price ₹890
Earlier Target ₹855
Recommendation Hold
Weak December quarter and novelis concerns
India business witnessed weaker-than-expected performance of aluminum business
Raise FY27-28 EPS by 6% on higher aluminum prices
Concerned on multiple fire incidents clouding Novelis' operational outlook as well as rising debt levels
Citi On Bharat Forge
Target Price ₹930
Recommendation Sell
Q3FY26 results below estimates; Outlook is very positive
Management is optimistic about exports as well as domestic segments
Management is very positive about defence segment and expects 30-40% year-on-year growth in FY27
Remain cautious as defence order execution has been delayed
Valuations adequately price-in the positives but provide little room for error
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