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- Trump administration delayed its plan to impose sweeping tariffs on pharmaceutical imports. The proposed 100% levy on patented and branded drugs remains under review, reflecting industry resistance and policy uncertainty in U.S. trade measures.
- The U.S. government shutdown added further pressure on the economy, with President Trump warning of federal job cuts and project suspensions. However, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported layoffs fell 37% MoM in September to 54,064, also down 26% YoY, pointing to resilience in the labor market despite fiscal disruptions.
- Japan's jobless rate rose to 2.6% in August from 2.3% in July, while the jobs-to-applicants ratio slipped to 1.20 from 1.22. The softer labor market signals moderation in economic momentum, consistent with weaker global trade conditions.
- The RBl's Monetary Policy Committee(MPC) held the policy repo rate at 5.5% while maintaining a Neutral stance. Inflation estimate was reduced by 50bp to 2.6% for FY26E and growth projections were revised higher by 30bp to 6.8% for FY26E vs the previous meet, mainly due to higher than expected Q1FY26 GDP growth print.
- Amid growing U.S. pressure over Russian crude purchases, Indian oil firms are adopting divergent procurement strategies. Kpler data showed state-run refiners imported 605k bpd in September, down 32% from April-August levels, 22% from August, and 45% from June. The decline highlights the challenge of balancing cheap energy access with geopolitical constraints.
- India's net GST collections slowed in September, rising only 5% YoY to just over 71.60 tn, 4.2% lower than August's 71.67 tn. The Gross collection rose by 9.1% in September. The moderation in Net GST collections was pulled down due to sharp 40% increase in refunds, after August's stronger 10.7% growth aided by lower refunds. This reflects volatility in tax inflows at a time when fiscal space remains tight.
- To support states ahead of festive season spending, the Centre released an additional tax devolution of $1.02 tn. This comes over and above the regular monthly release of 70.82 tn scheduled for October 10. The move provides states with near-term liquidity support for welfare and infrastructure expenditure.
- India's manufacturing activity eased in September as external headwinds began to weigh. The S&P Global PMI eased to 57.7 from 59.3 in August, still firmly in expansion zone but at a four-month low. Slower order inflows suggest U.S. tariffs are starting to impact demand, though domestic momentum remains resilient.
- The Cabinet approved significant MSP hikes for six rabi crops for the 2026-27 marketing season. Wheat saw a 6.6% increase to 72,585 per quintal, while safflower received the highest hike to promote oilseed cultivation. Farmers are expected to realize 7842.6 bn from 297 lakh tonnes of procurement, boosting rural income prospects.
- Consumer confidence in India improved modestly in September, as per RBl's survey. The Current Situation Index for urban households rose by 0.4 points to 96.9, while rural sentiment advanced to 100.9 from 100.6 in July. Higher optimism was supported by improved perceptions of employment and income outlook.
Asia markets set to open higher after Wall Street gains as investors look past government shutdown
Other asset classes
- Spot gold was trading at $3,860/oz whereas Silver fell below $47 per ounce on Thursday after reaching an intraday high of $48.06.
- The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) eased to 4.09%, down about 1 bps, while the 2-year yield (US2YT=RR) inched up to 3.547% after a 6 bps drop on Wednesday.
- Brent crude oil futures rose to around $64.4 per barrel whereas US WTI crude was trading near $60.7 per barrel
- The dollar index (DXY) was almost unchanged at 97.90
- The benchmark Indian 10-year yield eased by 6 bps to 6.5166%.
- Bitcoin closed around $120,101 USD.
- The USD/INR pair closed at ₹88.68.
Key events to watch
- US Global and Service PMI for the month of September 2025
- India Foreign Exchange Reserve data
- India Bank Loan and Deposit Growth
FII DII Activity on 1st October 2025 (Rs in Cr)
FII : - 1,605.20
DII: + 2,916.14
Stocks in Ban
RBLBANK, SAMMAANCAP.
Swelect Energy: Company commissioned additional 2 MW solar plant in Tamil Nadu.
GNG Electronics: Company signed facility lease pact with Ajman Free Zones Authority.
Goodluck India: Company obtained industrial licence to produce empty shells; trial production to begin in third quarter.
Bansal Wire: Company’s second quarter sales volume rose 45.9% YoY to 1.15 lakh metric tonnes
Lemon Tree Hotels: Opened a 111-room property in Andhra Pradesh.
PC Jeweller: Revenue grew 63% YoY in the second quarter and it reduced bank debt by 23%.
PTC Industries: Company won a multi-million-pound project with Coolbook to supply machine and cast components for Rotodynamic heater
CSB Bank: Q2 deposits rose 25% year-on-year to Rs 39,651 crore and gross advances was up 29% year-on-year to Rs 34,730 crore.
John Cockerill: Godawari Power & Ispat Limited Awards Contract To Co for 6 Hi Reversible Cold Rolling Mill At Tilda, Raipur.
Capital Trust: Company Has Commenced Its Gold Loan Business
Eveready Industries: Company Consent Award Issued By Arbitral Tribunal, Arbitration Proceedings against Co Withdrawn and Terminated
Veerhealth Care Ltd: Company announced the receipt of an order from a leading Indian pharmacy chain for manufacturing & supplying Hair Care & Oral Care products.
Niva Bupa: Meerut Tax Authority dropped alleged GST demand of Rs 124 crore.
V-Mart Retail: Q2 Update, Total revenue from operations up 22% at Rs 807 Cr Vs Rs 661 Cr (YoY), Same store sales growth (SSSG) at +11%
PFC: Company expands with New Subsidiary for Power Transmission Project.
United Spirits: Bombay High Court set aside Rs 443 crore water charge demand and directed interim deposit of Rs 66.5 crore.
Sai Silks: Q2 FY26 Turnover Up 28% to Rs 444 Crore; 5 New Stores Opened, 10 More Planned
Diffusion Engineers: Company Secures Rs 22.86 Crore Domestic Order for Power Industry Equipment
Hyundai Motor India: Company Commences Passenger Vehicle Production at Talegaon Plant with 1.7 Lakh Annual Capacity
Hero Motocorp: September sales at 6.87 lk units Vs poll of 6.5 lk units
KRBL: Company emerges successful bidder for Haryana PACL properties at ₹403 crore.
SBI Card: Company announces transaction fee changes from November.
Oil downstream stocks: Oil edges lower for fourth day on oversupply concerns
Sammaan Capital: Board clears ₹8,850 Crore preferential issue to IHC.
Indigo: Direct flights between India and China to resume late in October.
Samman Capital: GS (Singapore) bought 66.38 lakh shares at a price of Rs 164.6 per share.
RBL Bank: MS Asia Singapore bought 32.51 lakh shares) at a price of Rs 274.4 per share.
BMW Ventures: Neomile growth Fund bought 5 lac shares at a price of Rs 78 per share.
HDFC AMC: Company Board Meeting on Oct 15 to Consider Q2 Results
Eicher Motors: (Motorcycle) Sept Total 1, 24,328 Sales Units Vs 86,978 Units (YoY); EST 135,100
Maruti Suzuki: Company Sept Auto Sales: total sales at 1.89 lakh units, up 2.7% YoY
Coal India: September production down 3.9% at 48.97 mt Vs 50.94 mt (YoY).
Swarnsarita Jewels India: Company announced the re-appointment of Mr. Mahendra Madanlal Chordia as MD for 5 years from Apr 1, 2026
Indostar Capital Finance: Company announced the appointment of Ms. Jasmine Bawa as the Chief Human Resources Officer (CHRO), effective Oct 01, 2025.
Virat Crane Industries: Company announced the reappointment of Sri Puvvada VenkataSrihari as Director & CFO, effective Sept 30, 2025.
Raymond: Confirms Completion of Income Tax Department Survey, Full Cooperation Extended
Shaily Engineering Plastics: CARE Ratings has reaffirmed the company's bank facility ratings.
Mega Corporation: Company announced the resignation of Mr. Surendra Chhalani as Chief Financial Officer, effective Oct 1, 2025.
Pondy Oxides and Chemicals: Company Invests $ 500,007.60 in Ace Green, Industry to Which the Entity Being Acquired Belongs To Innovative Battery Recycling Solutions
Wipro: Aasonn Philippines Inc. Dissolved Effective October 1, 2025, Deal to Rationalize and Consolidate Group Structure.
Systematix: Company Receives NSE Approval for Listing of 13.65 Crore Equity Shares on Main Board of NSE.
SKF India: Fixed Oct. 15 as record date for entitlement of SKF Industrial shares.
Nestle: Company added new Maggi noodles production line at Sanand Gujarat with an investment of Rs 85 crore.
Tata Power: Company signed agreement with Tata Power Mumbai Distribution to set up 80 MW firm and dispatchable renewable energy project
Adani Green: Company commissioned 50 MW solar and 31.2 MW wind projects at Khavda, Gujarat, raising total operational renewable capacity to 16,679.8 MW.
Zydus Lifesciences: USFDA issued complete response letter for CUTX-101 citing CGMP inspection issues; company to request meeting with regulator.
RBL Bank: Bank received show cause notice from Mumbai Tax Body for alleged GST demand of Rs 92 crore.
Indian Bank: Q2 business up 12.4% year-on-year to Rs 13.9 lakh crore, deposits rose 12% year-on-year to Rs 7.8 lakh crore
PVR INOX: CCI initiating an investigation against PVR INOX with regard to levy of Virtual Print Fee.
Unimech Aerospace: Company Continues To Experience A Slowdown in Revenues
Hexaware Technologies: Natsoft Corp and Updraft LLC filed complaints in the US alleging patent infringement and breach of contract; the company has not received any notices.
Jefferies on Allied Blenders
Buy , Target Price 620
Backward integration plans remain on track with recent addition of a PET bottle mfg. facility and work underway on a malt distillery
Single malt launch likely in 4-5 years
These factors along with distillery expansion in Maharashtra, to drive 300bps margin uplift over FY25-28e and strengthen franchise in key states
MS on Real Estate
Q2 - Not Weak Despite Seasonality
Expect the top five developers to register Q2 pre-sales of Rs 11000 cr - +44% YoY
H1 has reached 55% of full-year 2026 estimate
For Q2, expect Godrej and DLF to report stronger pre-sales than consensus expects
Lodha and Oberoi could disappoint
JP MORGAN ON AUTO
September 2025: a month where commentary matters more than data
Maruti underperformed industry in wholesale while retail was in-line; Hero still a key laggard in retail
M&M continues to outperform in PVs and Tractors
2W wholesale and retail delivered similar outcomes
Goldman SACS On L&T
Neutral , Target 3540
Expect a good quarter; market focus to shift to FY27
Expect healthy double digit growth in revenue, EBITDA and PAT driven by a strong order book
Order inflow growth of 15% YoY
Expect EPC and installation of offshore structures in Middle East to be included
Morgan Stanley On AXIS BANK
Overweight, Target Price 1450 From 1325
Revisiting the turnaround story
Bank has taken significant additional steps over the past year
Bank should get traction as the macro climate improves
Expect re-rating relative to large private banks to be gradual
MS India Strategy -Ridham Desai
Gunning for Growth
Equity market may be underestimating the likely turn in the growth cycle
While global factors matter for India's relative performance, in our view, the earnings and market peak is still in front of us
India's low beta implies outperformance in a global bear market but underperformance in a bull market
Domestic Cyclicals > Defensives and External-facing sectors
Morgan Stanley On Kotak Bank
Overweight, Target Price 2600
Believe the share price will rise relative to the industry over the next 30 days
Remain positive given its strong setup and exposure to segments that benefit from macro recovery
After two years of headwinds, the bank is now on the front foot with rising disbursements and stable margins
Jefferies on Cement Sector
Cement: Prices Hold as Intense Monsoon Ends
Cement prices (ex-GST related changes) was marginally lower by 0.5% MoM
YTD FY26 price is tracking 5-6% higher YoY vs FY26 est of +4% YoY
For Q2, price (ex-GST) remained relatively steady (1-1.5% dip QoQ), despite severe monsoons hurting demand
GST rate cut from 28% to 18% has reflected on cement cos passing the benefit
NUVAMA ON APL APOLLO TUBES
Nuvama maintains BUY on APL Apollo Tubes with target price ₹2,039 (earlier ₹1,941)
Q2FY26 sales at 855k tons, up 13% YoY and 8% QoQ, highest quarterly volumes despite weak demand
Channel demand remains subdued due to liquidity crunch
APL offers discounts on general structures; VAP products maintain premium pricing
VAP mix rose to 57% from 55% last year
EBITDA/ton expected at INR4,900, aided by operating leverage and no ESOP costs
Valuation at 36x Q2FY28E EPS
MOSL ON AMARA RAJA
MOSL maintains Neutral on Amara Raja with target price 1,030
First gigafactory (2GWh) on track for SOP by 1HCY27
OE demand rising post-GST; replacement demand yet to pick up
Lead costs stable QoQ; tubular plant may add 300-400 bps margin
Recycling plant can save 30-40 bps; power costs elevated for one more quarter
2,500 crore invested so far in gigafactory, R&D, and customer qualification plants
Further funding planned for ₹6,000-7,000 crore 16GWh project
Business expected to deliver 10-11% EBITDA at 10GWh scale
NUVAMA ON AMARA RAJA
Nuvama has maintained a BUY rating on Amara Raja with a target price of ₹1,120
The brokerage expects 2W aftermarket demand to grow 6-7% and 4W demand to rise 10-11% in FY26E
EBITDA margin is projected to improve from 11.5% in Q1FY26 to 13% in Q4FY26E, and further to 14% in FY27E
The Lead Acid Battery (LAB) business is expected to remain resilient for the next 1-2 decades
Amara Raja's LAB segment is likely to outpace industry growth by 3-5%, driven by market share gains and higher exports
Phase 1 of the lithium cell plant with 1GWh NMC chemistry is now expected to begin in H2FY27E, deferred from FY26
The lithium asset turnover is anticipated at 1x
The target price of 1,120 is based on 15x Sep-27E EPS for LAB, 169/share for lithium, and 42/share for investments
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