Share Market Today | GIFT Nifty Up 650 pts as Exit Polls Favour BJP

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Synopsis:

Today’s latest market updates: MSCI Index rejig to bring $2B in India, GIFT Nifty archives record turnover of $88.10B in May, IDFC First plans to raise ₹3,200 Cr, Aditya Birla Sun AMC promoters to sell up to 0.32% stake, plus other global market news.

Gift Nifty expects a strong start for the Indian market post the 18th Lok Sabha exit poll results. Projections show BJP coalitions likely to secure 350-400 seats, signalling a clear majority for the ruling party. This indicates policy continuity and increased focus on Infrastructure, Manufacturing, Defence, and Power. The Nifty spot is predicted to open with a positive bias, trading between 23,000 to 23,400 points.

Latest Market News

  1. MOIL increases prices of manganese ore with 35% and above Mn content by 44% starting June 1, 2024.
  2. Adani Ports' subsidiary wins a 30-year contract to operate a terminal in Tanzania.
  3. NSE introduced the Nifty EV Index with auto companies making up 72%, based on April 2, 2018.
  4. Coal India reports a 7.5% increase in May production, reaching 64.5 mt compared to 59.9 mt last year.
  5. NMDC's May production dropped to 2.34 mt from 3.71 mt last year, with sales falling to 2.82 mt from 3.62 mt.
  6. Ashoka Buildcon wins two MSRDC projects worth ₹2,152.7 crore.
  7. MosChip Technologies secures a ₹509.37 crore contract from the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing.
  8. GST collection grows by 10% to ₹1.73 lakh crore in May 2024.
  9. FIIs and DIIs net bought ₹1,613.24 crore and ₹2,114.17 crore in equities on Friday, respectively.

In-Depth Market Insights: Global Outlook, Derivatives & More

US Share Market News

1. Performance Overview:

  • On Friday, the US stocks climbed as inflation data met expectations, supporting the possibility of future rate cuts despite tech sector weakness.
  • The surge on Wall Street was also supported by the PCE price index data that matched expectations for April. Although inflation cooled slightly, it remained above the Fed's 2% target.

2. Economic Indicators:

  • Traders estimate about a 47% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, alongside a 45% chance of no change, according to CME Fedwatch.
  • Attention shifts to the upcoming May non-farm payrolls data for further insights into the labour market, crucial for the Fed's rate decisions.
  • The central bank's upcoming meeting is anticipated to maintain rates, but any hints about future decisions will be closely monitored.

3. Sector-Specific Movements:

  • The Dow surged 1.5% to close at 38,686.32. S&P 500 climbed 0.8% to 5,277.51. Nasdaq Composite slipped slightly by 0.1% to 16,735.02. Despite weekly declines, all showed monthly gains.

Other Asset Classes

1. Treasury Yields:

  • On Friday, the US Treasury yields declined following the release of the inflation data, which largely matched economist expectations. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dropped by over 5 basis points, settling at 4.501%.

2. Currency:

  • The dollar index fluctuated within a corrective range on Friday, ultimately closing the session lower at 104.5.

3. Commodities:

  • US crude oil had its worst month of the year in May, dropping 6%, while global benchmark Brent fell 7.1%. The WTI July contract closed at $77.99 a barrel, down 1.18%, and the Brent July contract closed at $81.62 a barrel.
  • Gold prices eased on Friday as investors digested a US inflation report that met estimates. Despite this, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year kept gold on track for a fourth straight monthly gain. Spot gold fell 0.7% to $2,325.67 per ounce, while US gold futures dropped 0.9% to $2,346.4.

Asian Markets

1. General Trends:

  • On Monday, the Asia-Pacific stock markets rose ahead of a private survey on China’s manufacturing sector.

2. Specific Index Performance:

  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened 1.01% higher, while the broader Topix index gained 1.02%.
  • On the other hand, South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.26%, while the smaller-cap Kosdaq was 0.42% higher.

India Market Outlook

1. GIFT Nifty Projection:

  • Gift Nifty indicates a gap-up opening for the Indian market, with exit polls predicting a larger BJP coalition win than in 2019. Nifty is expected to open near last week's high of 23100 and then consolidate with a positive bias amid stock-specific activity.

2. Nifty Short-Term Outlook:

  • Benchmark indices ended a two-week rise, closing sharply lower due to profit booking ahead of the general election outcome. The Nifty fell 1.86% to 22,530, while the Bank Nifty remained flat at 48,984.
  • The index has formed a large bear candle, indicating profit-booking at higher levels. The recent five-session decline has eased the overbought condition in the daily stochastic after a strong rally.
  • Since the start of 2024, the Nifty has been trading in a rising channel. We expect it to move higher towards 23,300-23,500 in the coming weeks, as long as it stays above the lower band at 22,000.

3. Intraday Levels:

  • Nifty: Intraday resistance is situated at 23230, followed by 23400 levels. Conversely, downside support is located at 22950, followed by 22800.
  • Bank Nifty: Intraday resistance is positioned at 50530, followed by 51000, while downside support is found at 49880, followed by 49550.
  • Fin Nifty: Intraday resistance is positioned at 22300, followed by 22480, while downside support is found at 22050, followed by 21950.

Derivative Market Analysis

1. Nifty:

  • The option chain analysis for Nifty indicates a significant call OI at the 23,000 level and an immediate call OI at 22,500, suggesting a potential upward move if the price stays above 22,500.
  • Major put OI is at 22,000, with immediate put OI at 22,500, providing support at that level. This sets Nifty's immediate range for the week between 22,000 and 23,000, with possible directional movement if these levels are breached.
  • The put-call ratio has risen to 1.12, and a 14.2% decline in open interest alongside a 1.0% price fall indicates long unwinding.

2. Bank Nifty:

  • The option chain analysis for Bank Nifty and Midcap Nifty indicates key levels of support and resistance. For Bank Nifty, significant call OI at 49,000 suggests it as a pivotal level, with potential movement towards 50,000 if surpassed, and strong support at 48,500.
  • The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has decreased to 0.88, with the immediate trading range expected to be between 48,500 and 49,000. Bank Nifty's 0.1% price rise and 11.7% OI increase indicate a long buildup.
  • For Midcap Nifty, resistance levels are marked above 11,400, with the highest call OI at 11,700, and strong support at 11,200, defining the immediate range between 11,200 and 11,400, with significant movements likely to break either range.

Stay on top of the latest market news with Bajaj Broking’s insights. Our point-to-point expert analysis digs deep into the surface, empowering you with a unique perspective on the events in the domestic and global stock markets. Get all the current share market news, including US share market updates in one place and make wise investment decisions.

Disclaimer: Investments in the securities market are subject to market risk, read all related documents carefully before investing.

This content is for educational purposes only. Securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory.

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