Nifty Expiry: Bears Gain Ground as Max Pain Shifts Lower to 24,150


    By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)

    Summary :


    Nifty’s expiry setup weakened as the index tested the previous session’s low. The PCR slipped to 0.71, while max pain moved down to 24,150. Heavy call writing at 24,200–24,250 continues to cap the upside, whereas put writers are defending 24,100. A sustained break on either side could drive the next sharp move into the close in the final hour today. 

    Nifty Weekly Expiry Outlook

    Updated As of 1:30 PM IST

    The Nifty 50 extended its intraday correction and tested the previous session’s low.

    In the morning, the index was trading close to 24,200 and remained within Monday’s range. Derivatives positioning had indicated resistance between 24,200 and 24,250, while 24,100 was emerging as the principal support.

    The latest price action shows that call writers have strengthened their grip. The inability to reclaim 24,200 has pushed the index towards the lower end of its immediate trading range.

    PCR Declines as Call-Side Positioning Increases

    The put-call ratio (PCR) has declined from 0.74 to 0.71. The fall in PCR indicates that call open interest has increased at a faster pace than put open interest.

    This reflects a more cautious market setup compared with the morning session. Traders are adding positions (writers) on the call side as the index struggles below 24,200, suggesting that expectations of a strong expiry recovery have weakened.

    Nifty Max Pain Shifts Lower to 24,150

    The maximum pain level has moved lower from 24,200 to 24,150.

    The shift is significant because it reflects a change in the options positioning as the session progresses. Earlier, 24,200 was the central expiry pivot. The movement of max pain towards 24,150 suggests that the derivatives market is now pricing in a relatively weaker expiry settlement.

    The 24,150 level may act as the immediate expiry magnet. The index could remain volatile around this strike unless there is a decisive break above 24,200 or below 24,100.

    Nifty Call Writers Strengthen Resistance at 24,200

    On the call side, open interest addition continues to remain strongest at the 24,200 strike, which now holds the highest call open interest concentration.

    The 24,250 strike has witnessed the second-highest addition and also carries the second-largest concentration of call open interest.

    This confirms that the 24,200–24,250 band remains the most important resistance zone for the remainder of the session. The index had already failed to sustain above 24,260 earlier in the day, and the subsequent correction has further strengthened the position of call writers.

    A recovery above 24,200 alone may not be sufficient to reverse the intraday weakness. The Nifty would need to sustain above 24,250–24,260 to trigger meaningful call unwinding and reopen the possibility of a move towards 24,300.

    Nifty Put Writers Attempt to Defend 24,100

    On the put side, the 24,100 strike has recorded the highest open interest addition during Tuesday’s session. It also has the largest concentration of put open interest, making it the principal support for the weekly expiry.

    The 24,150 strike carries the next-highest put open interest concentration and is aligned with the revised maximum pain level.

    This creates a closely contested expiry zone between 24,100 and 24,200. Put writers are attempting to protect 24,100, while call writers continue to restrict the index near 24,200.

    Nifty Weekly Expiry Outlook

    The derivatives setup has weakened compared with the morning session. The PCR has declined, max pain has shifted lower, and call writing at 24,200 has intensified as the index tests the previous session’s low.

    As long as the Nifty remains below 24,200, the bias is likely to stay cautious, with 24,150 and 24,100 acting as the immediate downside levels.

    A decisive break below 24,100 could trigger put unwinding and expose the index to the 24,050–24,000 range. Conversely, only a sustained recovery above 24,250–24,260 would force call writers to cover their positions and improve the chances of a late expiry rebound.

    Updated As of 11:30 AM IST

    The Nifty 50 began the weekly expiry session on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, near 24,216. The index subsequently touched an intraday high of 24,262.20 and a low of 24,163.75. At the time of writing, it was trading 50 points lower at 24,188, slipping below the psychologically important 24,200 level.

    Price action remains compressed. On Monday, the Nifty formed an inside candle after trading entirely within the high-low range of Friday’s sizeable bullish candle. Tuesday’s session has so far remained within Monday’s range, creating a further contraction in volatility.

    This successive range compression suggests that neither buyers nor sellers have established control. However, the narrow structure also raises the probability of a sharp directional move once the index breaks out of the recent trading range.

    Nifty Derivatives Data Favours Call Writers

    The put-call ratio, or PCR, stands at 0.74, indicating relatively heavier positioning on the call side. The maximum pain level is placed at 24,200, which is also emerging as the central pivot for the expiry session.

    Fresh call open interest has accumulated at the 24,200 and 24,250 strikes. The highest call open interest is concentrated at 24,200, followed by 24,250, making the 24,200–24,250 zone an immediate resistance area.

    The index attempted to move above this band during the morning session but failed to sustain beyond 24,262. It also remained below the previous session’s high. As long as the Nifty trades below 24,200–24,250, call writers are likely to retain the upper hand and restrict meaningful upside.

    Repeated failures near this zone would strengthen the resistance and could invite further selling pressure, particularly if the index slips below its intraday low.

    Short-Covering Possible Above 24,260

    The bearish derivatives positioning could change quickly if the Nifty moves decisively above 24,260 and crosses Monday’s high.

    Such a breakout would place call writers at the 24,200 and 24,250 strikes under pressure. A round of short-covering could then accelerate the move towards 24,300, followed by the broader resistance zone of 24,350–24,400.

    For the breakout to remain credible, the index must sustain above 24,260 rather than merely registering an intraday spike. A sustained move above the resistance band would also confirm an upside breakout from the two-session consolidation structure.

    Put Writers Build Support at 24,100

    On the put side, the 24,100 strike has witnessed meaningful open-interest addition and currently holds the highest concentration of put open interest. The 24,200 strike also carries substantial put positioning.

    This makes 24,100 the immediate derivatives-based support for the expiry session. As long as the Nifty remains above this level, put writers may continue to defend the downside.

    A fall below the intraday low of 24,163.75 would weaken the structure and increase the likelihood of a test of 24,100. If 24,100 fails to hold, put unwinding could intensify the decline and expose the index to the 24,050–24,000 zone.

    Nifty Weekly Expiry Key Levels to Watch

    The Nifty is currently positioned between strong call writing at 24,200–24,250 and put writing near 24,100. This creates a well-defined expiry range.

    Below 24,200, the bias remains mildly negative, with 24,164 and 24,100 acting as the key downside levels. Above 24,260, the balance could shift in favour of buyers, opening the way towards 24,300–24,400.

    Until either boundary is crossed decisively, the index may remain volatile but directionless around the 24,200 maximum pain level.

    Source: Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ), Opstra

    About the Author

    SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000006396).


    Founded in 1986, Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ) brings decades of experience in India’s equity markets. DSIJ's research combines fundamental analysis with price action, guided by disciplined risk management and capital preservation. They follow a structured, data-driven approach designed to help investors and traders make informed decisions beyond short-term market noise. 

    Published Date : 21 Jul 2026

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    Content Partner - Dalal Street Investment Journal Wealth Advisory Private Limited



    This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market investments are subject to risks. DSIJ Wealth Advisory Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Reg. No: INH000006396) and Investment Adviser (Reg. No: INA000001142). Please consult your financial adviser before investing. 

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