In the second half of Tuesday’s trading session, the May series expiry turned more interesting as the Nifty 50 slipped below the psychological 24,000 mark. As of 1:08 PM, the index was trading near the lower end of the expiry range highlighted in the previous update.
The Key Question Now: What has Changed Since the Morning Expiry Update?
The answer lies in the options data. In the morning, the setup was relatively constructive, with strong Put writing at 24,000 and a Put-Call Ratio of around 1.43. This suggested that traders were expecting 24,000 to act as a support zone. However, as the session progressed, the structure changed sharply.
PCR Falls Below 1, Signalling a Shift in Sentiment
The Put-Call Ratio for the May series has now dropped below 1 and stands at 0.92, compared to 1.43 earlier in the day. This is a significant change.
A fall in PCR below 1 indicates that Call writing has become more aggressive than Put writing. In simple terms, traders are now building positions that suggest limited upside for the index. This does not automatically mean a sharp fall, but it clearly shows that the bullish cushion seen in the morning has weakened.
Max Pain Shifts Lower to 24,000
Another important change is the shift in Max Pain. Earlier, Max Pain stood at 24,050. It has now moved lower to 24,000.
This indicates that the option positioning has shifted down by 50 points. If there is no sharp unwinding in the second half of the session, the market may try to gravitate around the 24,000 zone into expiry.
However, with Nifty already trading below 24,000, this level has now become the immediate battleground.
24,000 Turns From Support to Resistance
The most important development is on the Call side. The 24,000, 24,050 and 24,100 Call strikes have witnessed aggressive open interest addition as the day progressed.
The 24,000 Call strike alone has seen an addition of 4.77 lakh contracts. With this surge, the highest Call open interest has shifted from the 24,100 strike to the 24,000 strike. Total open interest at the 24,000 Call now stands at 6.36 lakh contracts.
This suggests that Call writers are now defending 24,000 aggressively. From the current data, 24,000 may be difficult for bulls to recapture unless there is meaningful Call unwinding at this strike.
In the morning, 24,000 was the key support. By afternoon, it has turned into an immediate resistance. That is the biggest change traders need to watch.
Put Writers Shift Focus to 23,900
On the Put side, the 23,900 strike has seen a sharp addition of 2.80 lakh contracts during Tuesday’s session. This indicates that traders are now building support at lower levels.
However, the highest Put open interest still remains at the 24,000 strike, with 4.32 lakh contracts. Since Nifty is already trading below 24,000, traders should watch whether this Put open interest holds or starts unwinding. Any aggressive unwinding at 24,000 Put could put further pressure on the index.
Nifty’s Expiry Range Narrows to 23,900-24,000
Based on the afternoon options data, the likely expiry range has now shifted lower to 23,900-24,000.
The 23,900 level is emerging as near-term support due to fresh Put writing, while 24,000 has become immediate resistance due to heavy Call writing. Unless there is sharp Call unwinding at the 24,000 strike, the upside may remain capped.
For traders, the message is clear: the expiry setup has shifted from “buying support near 24,000” in the morning to “resistance at 24,000” in the afternoon.
A sustained move above 24,000 could trigger short covering from Call writers and bring Nifty back towards 24,050. On the other hand, failure to reclaim 24,000 may keep the index under pressure and drag it closer to the 23,900 support zone.
What Changed from the Previous Expiry Update?
Indicator
| Morning Reading
| Afternoon Reading
| What It Means
|
PCR
| 1.43
| 0.92
| Sentiment shifted from supportive to cautious
|
Max Pain
| 24,050
| 24,000
| Option positioning shifted lower
|
Key Call OI
| 24,100 CE
| 24,000 CE
| Resistance moved lower
|
Key Put OI
| 24,000 PE
| 24,000 PE, with fresh build-up at 23,900 PE
| Support base moved lower
|
Expiry Range
| 23,957-24,143
| 23,900-24,000
| The range has compressed and shifted downward
|
Takeaway for Expiry Day
The afternoon options data suggests that bears have gained control near 24,000. Bulls need a strong move above 24,000, along with Call unwinding, to regain momentum. Until that happens, Nifty may remain capped, with 23,900 acting as the next important support for the May series expiry.
Update as of 11:30 AM IST
Nifty Holds 24,000 on Expiry Day; Option Data Points to a Tight Range
On the May series F&O expiry day, the Nifty50 index started on a soft note near the psychological 24,000 mark. Soon after the opening bell, the index slipped to an intraday low of 23,965.70. However, buying emerged at lower levels, helping the index recover more than 100 points from the day’s low.
As of 10:54 AM on Tuesday, Nifty was trading near the day’s high around the 24,080 level, up nearly 0.20%. The recovery from lower levels suggests that traders are not willing to give up the 24,000 zone easily on expiry day.
A key factor supporting the market mood is the sharp fall in India VIX. The volatility index declined nearly 6% and slipped below the 16 mark, its lowest level since May 7. A falling VIX generally indicates reduced fear in the market and suggests that traders are pricing in a more stable expiry session.
Option Data Signals 24,000 as Key Support on May Expiry
The Put-Call Ratio for the May series stands at 1.43, indicating a higher concentration of Put open interest compared to Calls. This reflects a relatively constructive undertone, provided the index continues to hold key support levels.
The Max Pain level stands at 24,050, which is close to the current trading zone. This suggests that the market may attempt to settle near this level if there is no strong directional move in the second half of the session.
On the Put side, the 24,000 strike has seen significant open interest addition, with 4.45 lakh contracts added during Tuesday’s session. Total open interest at the 24,000 Put stands near 6.46 lakh contracts, making it the highest Put OI concentration across strikes. This clearly makes 24,000 an important support zone for Nifty on expiry day.
On the Call side, the 24,100 strike has seen the highest open interest addition, with 2.56 lakh contracts added. It also has the maximum Call-side open interest concentration. This makes 24,100 an immediate resistance zone. If Nifty sustains above this level, some Call writers may rush to cover positions, which could push the index towards the upper end of the expected range.
