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By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)
Nifty Monthly Expiry: On the May series expiry day, Nifty defended the crucial 24,000 mark after a soft start, supported by strong Put writing and a sharp fall in India VIX. Options data indicate 24,000 as support and 24,100 as resistance, with the ATM straddle suggesting a broad range of 23,957 to 24,143 for the expiry trading session.
On the May series F&O expiry day, the Nifty50 index started on a soft note near the psychological 24,000 mark. Soon after the opening bell, the index slipped to an intraday low of 23,965.70. However, buying emerged at lower levels, helping the index recover more than 100 points from the day’s low.
As of 10:54 AM on Tuesday, Nifty was trading near the day’s high around the 24,080 level, up nearly 0.20%. The recovery from lower levels suggests that traders are not willing to give up the 24,000 zone easily on expiry day.
A key factor supporting the market mood is the sharp fall in India VIX. The volatility index declined nearly 6% and slipped below the 16 mark, its lowest level since May 7. A falling VIX generally indicates reduced fear in the market and suggests that traders are pricing in a more stable expiry session.
The Put-Call Ratio for the May series stands at 1.43, indicating a higher concentration of Put open interest compared to Calls. This reflects a relatively constructive undertone, provided the index continues to hold key support levels.
The Max Pain level stands at 24,050, which is close to the current trading zone. This suggests that the market may attempt to settle near this level if there is no strong directional move in the second half of the session.
On the Put side, the 24,000 strike has seen significant open interest addition, with 4.45 lakh contracts added during Tuesday’s session. Total open interest at the 24,000 Put stands near 6.46 lakh contracts, making it the highest Put OI concentration across strikes. This clearly makes 24,000 an important support zone for Nifty on expiry day.
On the Call side, the 24,100 strike has seen the highest open interest addition, with 2.56 lakh contracts added. It also has the maximum Call-side open interest concentration. This makes 24,100 an immediate resistance zone. If Nifty sustains above this level, some Call writers may rush to cover positions, which could push the index towards the upper end of the expected range.
The At-The-Money strike (ATM) of 24,050 is also giving useful clues. The 24,050 Call is trading around ₹56, while the 24,050 Put is trading around ₹37. The combined premium of both options stands at ₹93 points.
By adding and subtracting this premium from the ATM strike, the implied range comes to:
Upper range: 24,050 + 93 = 24,143
Lower range: 24,050 - 93 = 23,957
This suggests that, based on the current option premiums, Nifty may remain broadly in the 23,957 to 24,143 range for the rest of the expiry session. However, a decisive move beyond 24,100 on the upside or below 24,000 on the downside could trigger short-covering or fresh unwinding.
Overall, Nifty’s recovery from the 23,965 level, strong Put writing at 24,000, and a sharp fall in India VIX suggest that the bulls are trying to defend the 24,000 mark on expiry day. The 24,050 level remains important due to Max Pain, while 24,100 is the immediate hurdle. A sustained move above 24,100 may open room towards 24,140, while a break below 24,000 could weaken the expiry-day setup.
Shriram Finance
Max Financial Services
JSW Energy
Godfrey Phillips India
Nippon Life India Asset Management
Suzlon
Kaynes Technology India
Rail Vikas Nigam
Colgate-Palmolive India
SBI Life Insurance Company
Shree Cement
Prestige Estates Projects
Source: Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ), TradingView, BSE
SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000006396).
Founded in 1986, Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ) brings decades of experience in India’s equity markets. DSIJ's research combines fundamental analysis with price action, guided by disciplined risk management and capital preservation. They follow a structured, data-driven approach designed to help investors and traders make informed decisions beyond short-term market noise.
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