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By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)
India's IT sector begins the Q1 FY27 earnings season with TCS reporting first on July 9. The market expects another subdued quarter as weak discretionary spending, AI-driven changes and global uncertainty weigh on growth, while a weaker rupee may offer some support to reported revenue.
The June quarter earnings season is set to begin this week, with India's information technology sector once again under the spotlight. Investors will closely watch whether the country's largest software exporters show early signs of a recovery after the Nifty IT index fell more than 25% in 2026.
The April to June quarter is usually a favourable period for India's IT sector. Higher billing days, fresh project starts and seasonal demand often support revenue growth. This year, however, investors believe those seasonal factors may not be enough to drive a meaningful recovery.
The sector enters Q1 FY27 after a weak finish to Q4 FY26, when most leading IT companies reported softer-than-expected results and issued cautious guidance. Global uncertainty and tensions have kept spending under pressure. As a result, it is expected that many clients have delayed discretionary technology projects.
Additionally, the market believes AI would disrupt the traditional IT services model by reducing the need for manual, headcount-based work. As businesses increasingly automate routine tasks, investors fear this could weigh on the long-term growth prospects of Indian IT companies.
The recent update by Accenture has further impacted the sentiment of investors about the IT sector.
The global technology consulting firm reduced its annual revenue growth guidance to 3% to 4% for FY26, compared with its earlier forecast of 3% to 5%. It also projected quarterly revenue below Wall Street expectations.
Accenture said the conflict between the US and Iran affected its consulting operations in the Middle East, resulting in a $400 million impact during the third quarter. The company also warned that geopolitical uncertainty could continue to affect business during the current quarter.
One factor that could provide some support to quarterly earnings is the depreciation of the Indian rupee against major global currencies.
During the June quarter, the rupee weakened by around 9.7% against the US dollar on a year-on-year basis, moving from ₹85.60 to ₹94.90. Since a large share of revenue is earned in foreign currencies, a weaker rupee generally boosts reported revenue after conversion into Indian currency.
However, markets believe this foreign exchange benefit is unlikely to change the broader demand picture.
According to Reuters, India's six largest IT companies (TCS, Infosys, HCLTECH, Wipro, Tech Mahindra and LTM) are expected to report around 14% year-on-year revenue growth in rupee terms during the June quarter. The net profit is expected to rise by 12-13%. However, much of this growth is likely to come from the sharp depreciation of the Indian rupee. Excluding currency movements, revenue growth is expected to remain modest at just 2.8% in constant-currency terms.
The sector's earnings calendar begins on July 9 when Tata Consultancy Services Ltd (TCS) announces its June quarter results. The company's numbers are expected to set the tone for the rest of the sector.
According to CNBC-TV18 poll estimates, TCS is expected to report rupee revenue of ₹71,847 crore for the June quarter, reflecting sequential growth of around 1.6%.
In US dollar terms, however, revenue is expected to decline by 0.1% sequentially. This indicates that most of the growth in reported rupee revenue is likely to come from currency movement rather than stronger business performance or higher deal execution. As a result, management commentary on client demand and the deal pipeline will be closely watched.
After TCS, Infosys Ltd, HCL Technologies Ltd and Wipro Ltd will report their results later this month.
Infosys is expected to post relatively steady revenue growth in the June quarter, supported by contributions from its healthcare and cloud-related acquisitions. Among the large-cap IT companies, investors believe Infosys may emerge as one of the better performers this quarter.
HCL Technologies may see a sequential decline in revenue, according to market estimates. However, investors' focus is likely to remain on the company's FY27 guidance. The recently announced $1.14 billion deal with a Fortune 50 European client is expected to provide some support to sentiments.
Wipro is also expected to report declines due to client-specific issues, delayed ramp-ups, and seasonal weakness.
Investors will have to pay close attention to management commentary, especially on demand trends, deal wins, hiring plans and the outlook for the remainder of FY27.
Any improvement in discretionary spending or faster conversion of large deals may lift sentiment. On the other hand, another round of cautious guidance may add concerns that the sector's recovery may take longer than expected.
Source: Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ), NSE, Moneycontrol, Reuters
SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000006396).
Founded in 1986, Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ) brings decades of experience in India’s equity markets. DSIJ's research combines fundamental analysis with price action, guided by disciplined risk management and capital preservation. They follow a structured, data-driven approach designed to help investors and traders make informed decisions beyond short-term market noise.
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