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By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)
Brent crude surged over 10% this week to cross $100 per barrel after Red Sea tanker attacks heightened supply concerns. Over the same period, the Nifty declined 3% and the Sensex lost 3.2%, while the rupee weakened to ₹96.67 against the US dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions and higher crude prices.
It has been a difficult week for Indian equity markets. The Nifty 50 fell 3% while the Sensex shed 3.2%, with the index touching a weekly low of 75,474.43. The trigger was evident: Brent crude surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since May, as escalating tensions in the Middle East raised fresh concerns over global oil supplies.
The week's sharpest escalation came on July 23, when Iran-backed Houthi militants struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, claiming the attacks were in enforcement of a newly declared maritime blockade against Saudi ports. The strikes marked the first direct tanker attacks in the Red Sea during the current conflict and opened a second major shipping route under threat beyond the Strait of Hormuz—the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
According to CNN, about 6.2 million barrels of oil pass through the Bab al-Mandeb every day, making it a critical route for shipments that cannot use Hormuz. With both sea routes under simultaneous pressure and Saudi crude tankers carrying India-bound cargo being diverted, supply risks have risen significantly and could escalate further if the blockade expands.
Supply concerns were further compounded by Kazakhstan's decision to suspend crude exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal following drone attacks.
The geopolitical developments extended beyond shipping disruptions. As per NDTV, US President Donald Trump threatened "major military punishment" against the Houthis and later said he was considering a "massive attack" on Iran. Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the situation in the Middle East was "getting out of control", stating that "the fighting must stop everywhere" and "diplomacy is the only way forward." The US Senate also failed to advance a resolution aimed at rebuking Trump over the war in Iran, leaving the conflict's direction firmly in the executive's hands.
Brent crude has gained more than 10% this week to trade above $100 per barrel. Just a few weeks ago, it had fallen below $72 on expectations that tensions in the Middle East would ease and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would normalise. Those expectations have since reversed as the conflict intensified and supply risks re-emerged.
The Indian currency Rupee fell to 96.67 INR to the US dollar this week, close to its lowest level as growing crude prices increased the demand for USD to import oil.
The Nifty Oil & Gas Index declined 2.42% during the week as escalating geopolitical tensions and higher crude prices weighed on investor sentiment. Among oil-linked stocks, HPCL fell 5.74%, IOC declined 2.35%, Asian Paints slipped 1.2%, and ONGC dropped 0.53%. Oil India bucked the broader trend, rising 1.32% during the week. While higher crude prices typically support upstream producers and increase cost pressures for oil marketing companies and downstream users, broader market weakness kept most energy-related stocks under pressure.
India is dependent on imports for around 85–90% of its oil requirements, and therefore, the country is very susceptible to oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel. An escalation in oil prices will result in an increased import bill, an expanded trade deficit, depreciation of the Indian currency and rising inflation pressures. The inflation rate in India was 4.38% in June 2026.
Source: Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ), CNN, NDTV
SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000006396).
Founded in 1986, Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ) brings decades of experience in India’s equity markets. DSIJ's research combines fundamental analysis with price action, guided by disciplined risk management and capital preservation. They follow a structured, data-driven approach designed to help investors and traders make informed decisions beyond short-term market noise.
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