Get Free Demat Account*
Open Your Free Demat Account
Enjoy low brokerage on delivery trades
By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee, at its meeting from 3–5 June 2026, kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and maintained a neutral stance. FY27 GDP growth was revised down to 6.6% from 6.9%, while CPI inflation was raised to 5.1%.
The government also issued an ordinance exempting FIIs and the Bank for International Settlements from capital gains and interest tax on government securities, effective 1 April 2026. The Fully Accessible Route for G-Secs was expanded. The 10-year bond yield stood at 7.013%, while the rupee strengthened to 95.179 against the US dollar.
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee held its 61st meeting from June 3 to 5, 2026, under the chairmanship of Governor Sanjay Malhotra. By a unanimous vote, the MPC kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25%. The government simultaneously promulgated the Income-Tax (Amendment) Ordinance, 2026, exempting Foreign Institutional Investors from all taxes on government securities.
The repo rate stays at 5.25%, with the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate at 5.00% and both the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 5.50%. The MPC voted to retain its neutral stance, meaning policy direction will continue to be guided by incoming data.
Governor Malhotra, in his post-policy address, said the Indian economy entered this period of global turbulence with much better economic fundamentals and that he remained confident of navigating through it with minimum pain. The MPC said it was prudent to wait for more clarity before taking any policy action, and that the committee would remain data-dependent and closely monitor developments.
The MPC cut its real GDP growth forecast for FY27 to 6.6% from its previous estimate of 6.9%. QoQ growth is projected at 6.6% in Q1, 6.3% in Q2, 6.5% in Q3, and 6.8% in Q4. The downward revision reflects elevated energy prices, global supply chain disruptions, and a drag on merchandise exports from higher freight and insurance costs. On the other side, private consumption stayed firm, fixed investment maintained its momentum, government capital expenditure is expected to support activity, and services exports remained steady.
CPI headline inflation was 3.4% in March 2026, edging up to 3.5% in April on account of higher food prices. Core CPI (excluding food and fuel) held steady at 3.7% from January to April; excluding precious metals, core inflation was in the 2.1%–2.2% range, showing that demand-driven pressures remained contained at the time.
Despite this, the full-year CPI projection for FY27 has been raised to 5.1%. Quarterly estimates stand at 4.2% in Q1, 5.1% in Q2, 5.9% in Q3, and 5.4% in Q4. Core inflation for the full year is projected at 4.7%. Baseline projections point to headline inflation firming towards the upper tolerance band by Q3FY27.
The revision is partly because retail fuel prices have been raised since May 2026; petrol by a cumulative 7.4% and diesel by 8.4%. The MPC estimated that this will directly add approximately 36 basis points to headline CPI. The committee flagged that generalisation of inflation through second-round effects, where fuel price increases feed into wages and other prices is a distinct possibility and warrants a close watch.
The West Asia conflict, with no meaningful resolution in sight, was cited as the main external risk. Crude oil reserves globally are declining, energy markets remain volatile, and global commodity prices have firmed. Major advanced economy central banks are expected to move towards tightening, hardening global financial conditions. Sovereign bond yields in global markets have already risen, and the US dollar index has appreciated on shifting rate expectations.
On the domestic side, the south-west monsoon is forecast to be deficient this season, and El Niño adds further uncertainty to the food price outlook. The MPC noted incipient signs of moderation in some sectors and said risks of higher inflation have been amplified. Programmes for crop diversification, water harvesting, and short-duration crops are expected to mitigate the agricultural impact. Adequate foodgrain stocks and satisfactory reservoir levels provide some comfort. Domestic demand remained resilient, though the RBI noted that elevated energy prices and supply constraints are having adverse spillover effects on economic activity.
The government promulgated the Income-Tax (Amendment) Ordinance, 2026, amending Schedule IV of the Income-tax Act, 2025, by inserting two new categories: 13D and 13E. Under these, interest earned on government securities and capital gains from the sale, exchange, or transfer of such securities are now exempt from income tax for eligible investors. There will also be no withholding tax on these investments. Previously, foreign investors paid 12.5% Long Term Capital Gains tax on listed bonds held over twelve months, along with a 20% withholding tax on interest from government bonds.
The exemption covers Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) as defined under the Income-Tax Act, 2025, and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), headquartered in Basel, Switzerland. The ordinance is effective retrospectively from 1 April 2026. Eligible entities must furnish information in a prescribed form to claim the benefit.
The Fully Accessible Route (FAR) for government securities has been expanded to include all new issuances of 15-year, 30-year, and 40-year tenure bonds. Investment limits for NRIs and OCIs in equity instruments on the stock market without SEBI registration are being increased, and individual Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs) will receive the same facility. A concessional forex swap facility has been extended till 30 September 2026 to incentivise three-to-five-year External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) by Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs).
India’s 10-year government bond yield moved to 6.95% on the day, down 0.54%, reflecting softer bond yields in the market.
The rupee also strengthened against the US dollar, with USD/INR at 95.179, down 0.63% on the day, supported by expectations that tax relief on G-Secs for FIIs may provide additional inflows.
The minutes of the 61st MPC meeting will be published on 19 June 2026. The next meeting is scheduled for 3 to 5 August 2026. Monsoon progress, crude oil prices, the pass-through of fuel hikes to broader CPI, any developments in the West Asia conflict, and foreign inflows into G-Secs following the tax relief will all shape the committee's next call.
Source: Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ), Business Standard, CNBC
Disclaimer :
Investments in the securities market are subject to market risk, read all related documents carefully before investing. This content is for educational purposes only. Securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory.
The information on this website is provided on "AS IS" basis. Bajaj Broking (BFSL) does not warrant the accuracy of the information given herein, either expressly or impliedly, for any particular purpose and expressly disclaims any warranties of merchantability or suitability for any particular purpose. While BFSL strives to ensure accuracy, it does not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or timeliness of the information. Users are advised to independently verify details and stay updated with any changes.
The information provided on this website is for general informational purposes only and is subject to change without prior notice. BFSL shall not be responsible for any consequences arising from reliance on the information provided herein and shall not be held responsible for all or any actions that may subsequently result in any loss, damage and or liability. Interest rates, fees, and charges etc., are revised from time to time, for the latest details please refer to our Pricing page.
Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this website constitutes a solicitation or offer by BFSL or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service.
BFSL is acting as distributor for non-broking products/ services such as IPO, Mutual Fund, Insurance, PMS, and NPS. These are not Exchange Traded Products. For more details on risk factors, terms and conditions please read the sales brochure carefully before investing.
Content Partner - Dalal Street Investment Journal Wealth Advisory Private Limited
This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market investments are subject to risks. DSIJ Wealth Advisory Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Reg. No: INH000006396) and Investment Adviser (Reg. No: INA000001142). Please consult your financial adviser before investing.
For more disclaimer, check here : https://www.bajajbroking.in/disclaimer
Level up your stock market experience: Download the Bajaj Broking App for effortless investing and trading