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By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)
Nifty Weekly Expiry Outlook: Nifty slipped back below 24,100 in the afternoon session, reflecting hesitation among bulls at higher levels amid heavy Call writing at the 24,100 strike. The PCR rose to 1.06 from 0.99, while max pain remained unchanged at 24,100. Strong Put writing at 24,000 reinforced support, but persistent Call writing across the 24,100–24,200 strikes capped the upside, keeping the expiry battle confined to a narrow range during the final hours of trade.
The Nifty 50 surrendered part of its recovery during the afternoon session and moved back towards the day’s opening levels. As of 12:41 pm, the index was trading at 24,071, down 137 points and below the crucial 24,100 mark.
Earlier in the session, the index had recovered from an intraday low of 24,038 and moved towards 24,100. However, the inability to sustain above this level indicates that Call writers continue to restrict the upside.
The Put Call Ratio (PCR) increased to 1.06 from 0.99 in the morning. The rise points to relatively stronger Put writing during the session, mainly around the 24,000 strike.
Despite the change in the PCR, the maximum pain level remained unchanged at 24,100. This keeps 24,100 at the centre of the expiry setup and makes it an important pivot for the remaining session.
On the Put side, the highest open interest addition continued to be seen at the 24,000 strike. This confirms that Put writers are attempting to defend the level, which is also close to the 100-day moving average placed at 23,984.
The rise in the PCR further supports the view that traders are building positions around 24,000. However, with the index trading only marginally above this level, the support remains vulnerable.
A sustained fall below 24,000 could force Put writers to unwind their positions. This may accelerate the decline and increase volatility during the final hours of the expiry session.
On the Call side, significant open interest addition was recorded at the 24,100 strike, followed by 24,150 and 24,200. The highest Call open interest concentration remained at 24,100, reinforcing it as the immediate resistance level.
Compared with the morning update, Call writing has now spread across multiple strikes above 24,100. This suggests that traders do not expect a strong recovery unless the index moves decisively above this zone.
The options setup indicates a narrow expiry battle between 24,000 and 24,100. Put writers are defending the lower end of the range, while Call writers are controlling the upper end.
For the bulls, holding 24,000 remains essential. A sustained move above 24,100 could trigger Call unwinding and push the index towards 24,150–24,200. On the other hand, a decisive break below 24,000 may lead to Put unwinding and intensify selling pressure.
The Nifty 50 index began the July 14, 2026 weekly expiry session on a weak note, opening below its 20-day moving average. The index slipped to an intraday low of 24,038 before recovering from lower levels and was trading near 24,100 in the morning session.
Despite the recovery, market volatility remained elevated. India VIX rose more than 3% to trade above 13.7, indicating that traders expect wider intraday swings as the expiry session progresses.
The Put Call Ratio (PCR) stood at 0.99, reflecting a broadly balanced position between Call and Put writers. Meanwhile, the maximum pain (MaxPain) level was placed at 24,100, suggesting that the index may remain drawn towards this strike unless a strong directional move emerges.
However, the concentration of fresh positions around nearby strikes indicates that the 24,000 to 24,100 range could play an important role in determining the intraday trend.
On the Put side, substantial open interest addition was recorded at the 24,000 strike, followed by the 24,050 and 24,100 strikes. The 24,000 strike also held the highest Put open interest concentration, making it the most important support level for the expiry session.
The significance of this zone is strengthened by two factors. First, the index recovered sharply from around 24,000 in the previous session. Second, the short-term 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) is clustering near this zone, creating a dynamic support level.
As long as the Nifty sustains above 24,000, Put writers may continue to defend their positions. A decisive fall below this zone, however, could force them to unwind their positions. Such an unwinding could intensify selling pressure and pull the index towards lower support levels.
On the Call side, significant open interest addition was seen at the 24,100 strike as of 10:41 am. Consequently, the highest Call open interest concentration for the July 14 weekly expiry was placed at the 24,100 strike, followed by 24,200.
This positioning indicates immediate resistance near 24,100. The index will need to sustain above this level for the recovery to gain momentum. A move beyond 24,200, accompanied by Call unwinding, could strengthen the bullish case and trigger a sharper short-covering rally.
Options positioning suggests that 24,000 is the key support, while 24,100 and 24,200 are the immediate resistance levels. With maximum pain placed at 24,100 and the Put Call Ratio near one, the index may remain rangebound unless either side witnesses aggressive position unwinding.
For the bulls, defending 24,000 is crucial. A sustained move above 24,100 could improve sentiment, while a break below 24,000 may shift the expiry setup decisively in favour of the bears.
Source: Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ), Opstra
SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000006396).
Founded in 1986, Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ) brings decades of experience in India’s equity markets. DSIJ's research combines fundamental analysis with price action, guided by disciplined risk management and capital preservation. They follow a structured, data-driven approach designed to help investors and traders make informed decisions beyond short-term market noise.
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