Crude Oil Falls 5% Below $100 as US-Iran Deal Talks Progress


By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)

Summary :

 

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday after US President Donald Trump said a peace deal with Iran was largely negotiated, raising hopes the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Brent dropped below $100 and Asian markets rallied, though key differences between the two sides remain unresolved.

Why Crude Oil Prices Fell by 5% on Monday

On Monday morning, crude prices fell sharply as word spread that the United States and Iran might finally be closing in on a deal to end the war that has gripped the Middle East since late February.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped over 5% to $97.90 a barrel, while US-traded WTI fell 5.8% to $90.78. At 10.50 AM IST, Brent July futures were trading at $97.69 against a previous close of $103.54, and WTI July sat at $90.86 against $96.60. Both benchmarks hit their lowest levels since May 7, 2026.

What Changed Over The Weekend 

On Saturday, May 23, US President Donald Trump posted on social media that an agreement with Tehran had been “largely negotiated”, involving the United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and several other countries. He described it as a “Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE” and said final details would be announced shortly. 

He also mentioned a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that had "gone very well." The deal, as Trump described it, would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; the narrow waterway through which around one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes. Iran has effectively blockaded the strait since the war began in late February, and the US has imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports since mid-April, compounding the disruption.

Markets responded quickly. The Nikkei 225 in Japan rose above 65,000 for the first time, gaining around 3% on the prospect of the strait reopening. Japan and South Korea, both heavily reliant on Gulf energy, have been particularly exposed to the conflict's impact on supply.

 

Indian Oil Corp Ltd

Trade

143.74.22 (3.02 %)

Updated - 25 May 2026
145.30day high
DAY HIGH
143.25day low
DAY LOW
18738603
VOLUME (BSE)

The Complications In The Deal

But by Sunday, the situation had cooled somewhat. Trump posted again on Truth Social: “Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes!” As per Bloomberg, final approval could take several more days, and Trump confirmed the US naval blockade would remain “in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.” 

According to BBC, on the Iranian side, foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the two countries' positions had been converging but warned that did not mean agreements would be reached on key issues. Iran's semi-official Tasmin news agency went further, noting the draft deal could still collapse if the US continued to block Iranian demands, particularly around the release of frozen assets. Iran is also pushing for the end of what it calls US naval aggression as a core condition.

One key sticking point remains unresolved: Iran's nuclear programme. It is still unclear how that issue will be incorporated into any final agreement, and it is the kind of thing that can unravel months of diplomacy very quickly.

Where Oil Was Before All This?

To put Monday's price moves in context, Brent was trading at around $70 a barrel just before the conflict began. Even after dropping sharply on peace deal hopes, the benchmark remains nearly 35% above pre-war levels. The Strait of Hormuz closure has caused significant supply disruption, sent energy costs surging across Asia, and depleted strategic and commercial oil reserves to record lows.

Iran's Tasnim news agency reported on May 24, 2026, that 33 vessels, including oil tankers and container ships had passed through the strait after receiving permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy. A supertanker carrying Iraqi crude to China had also successfully crossed the US blockade line and was heading to the Chinese port of Ningbo, with arrival expected on June 12, 2026. The Trump administration, however, has

 

Source: Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ), BBC, ICIS, Al Jazeera

About the Author

SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000006396).


Founded in 1986, Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ) brings decades of experience in India’s equity markets. DSIJ's research combines fundamental analysis with price action, guided by disciplined risk management and capital preservation. They follow a structured, data-driven approach designed to help investors and traders make informed decisions beyond short-term market noise. 

Published Date : 25 May 2026

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Content Partner - Dalal Street Investment Journal Wealth Advisory Private Limited



This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market investments are subject to risks. DSIJ Wealth Advisory Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Reg. No: INH000006396) and Investment Adviser (Reg. No: INA000001142). Please consult your financial adviser before investing. 

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