Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) – High Conviction MTF Pick Targets 13% Upside

Synopsis:


Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) is initiated with a BUY rating and a target price of ₹519 (12-month horizon), based on sustained double-digit volume visibility, margin expansion from backward integration, disciplined capex, and a debt-free balance sheet. These factors underpin a multi-year compounding growth profile for the company.

Investment View

The research note initiates coverage on Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) with a stated target price of ₹519 against a CMP of ₹459 (as on 26-02-2026).

The investment thesis outlined in the report is built around the following structural drivers:

1. Volume Visibility in Core Markets

Management has reiterated a double-digit volume growth outlook supported by:

  • Weather normalization

  • Distribution penetration

  • Category expansion

  • Rural and semi-urban growth

All four India greenfield plants commissioned in H1 CY25 are expected to provide over 50% incremental capacity without major capex for the next two years.

Additionally, increasing cooler deployment and traction in hydration and dairy categories are highlighted as supporting factors for sustained volume growth.

Low-sugar and no-sugar products now account for approximately 59% of consolidated volumes, reflecting a shift in portfolio mix.

2. Margin Profile Supported by Backwards Integration

The report states that the long-term EBITDA benchmark remains 21%+, with recent performance trending ahead.

Margin support is attributed to:

  • Backward integration across packaging and coolers

  • Operating leverage from newly commissioned facilities

  • Improved fixed-cost absorption in India and Africa

These factors are expected to support margin stability across CY26–CY27, even without pricing intervention.

3. International Expansion & Diversification

The note highlights Africa as a growing contributor to the business.

Key developments include:

  • Proposed Twiza acquisition in South Africa, adding three manufacturing facilities

  • Expansion of franchise rights across multiple Southern African nations

  • Kenya entry through a wholly-owned subsidiary

  • A greenfield brewery project in partnership with Carlsberg, expected to be ready by end-2027

  • Scaling of snack manufacturing in Morocco and distribution expansion into Zimbabwe and Zambia

The Twiza acquisition is expected to add 70–80% incremental capacity in South Africa and improve logistics efficiency by increasing production locations from five to eight.

4. Capex Discipline and Balance Sheet Strength

During CY2025, approximately ₹45 billion of capex was capitalised, with around ₹30 billion incurred toward greenfield projects and backward integration.

India capex is projected to moderate to ₹6–7 billion in CY2026.

The India business remains net debt-free with cash reserves of approximately ₹12,250 million, and consolidated net debt stands at approximately ₹256 million, as per the report.

CRISIL has upgraded the company’s long-term credit rating to AAA/Stable.

Valuation Framework 

The research note assigns a 25x EV/EBITDA multiple to CY27E EBITDA, resulting in a target price of ₹519.

The valuation is described as reflecting:

  • Capacity-led volume growth

  • Margin gains from backward integration

  • Capex discipline

  • Contribution from international scaling and new categories

Company Snapshot & Shareholding

Particulars

Details

NSE / BSE

VBL / 540180

CMP

₹459

Upside

13%

Target Price

₹519

Bloomberg Code

VBL IN

High / Low

568 / 419

Market Cap

₹155.50 bn

Financial & Valuation Metrics

Metric

CY25A

CY24A

CY26E

Revenue (₹ mn)

2,16,854

245,045

2,81,802

EBITDA (₹ mn)

50,494

57,586

67,632

PAT (₹ mn)

30,681

33,537

40,796

EPS (₹)

9.1

9.9

12.1

Revenue Growth (%)

8.4

13.0

15.0

EBITDA Growth (%)

7.2

14.0

17.4

PAT Growth (%)

16.9

9.3

21.6

EBITDA Margin (%)

25.3

23.5

24.0

PAT Margin (%)

14.1

13.7

14.5

P/E (x)

50.6

46.3 

38.6

EV/EBITDA (x)

31.0

26.6

22.0

ROCE (%)

19.5

18.3

19.1

ROE (%)

15.5

14.6

15.0

Varun Beverages Limited

Trade

451.4-9.05 (-1.96 %)

Updated - 27 February 2026
464.35day high
DAY HIGH
449.55day low
DAY LOW
3015716
VOLUME (BSE)

CY2025 Management Call

Operational Performance:

Volume & Revenue: CY2025 consolidated volumes grew 7.9% to 1,213 million cases; net revenue increased 8.4% to ₹216,553 million.

Profitability: PAT rose 16.2% to ₹30,620.4 million despite weather disruptions.

Margins: Consolidated EBITDA margin stood at 23.3%; India EBITDA margin reached ~26%.

Product Mix: CSD 73.9%, packaged water 20.2%, non-carbonated beverages 5.9%.

Health Portfolio: Low-sugar and no-sugar products formed ~59% of consolidated volumes.

India Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategy:

Weather Impact: Heavy rainfall affected peak-season volume growth.

Volume-Value Gap: 4.5% gap in Q4 (volume +10.5%, sales -6%) driven by uptrading and tactical discounts.

Pricing Test: ₹10 price point for Nimbooz tested in select regions; expected at 5–7% of portfolio.

Realisation: Net realisation per case improved 3.4% in Q4 CY2025, led by international gains.

International Expansion and Strategic Moves:

South Africa: Proposed Twizza acquisition adds three manufacturing facilities and operational synergies.

Alcohol Entry: Carlsberg partnership; greenfield brewery targeted by end-2027.

Snacks: Morocco scaled; Zimbabwe and Zambia distribution commenced; CY2025 snack revenue ₹340 crore.

Capacity and Capital Expenditure:

Capex: ₹45,000 million capitalised in CY2025, including four India greenfield plants.

Operating Leverage: Commissioned plants and integration facilities are expected to enhance leverage.

Capacity Headroom: ~50% available capacity in India; low capex outlook for CY2026.

Financial Position and Capital Allocation:

Debt Position: India is net debt-free; cash ~₹12,250 million. Consolidated net debt ~₹256 million.

Credit Rating: CRISIL upgraded to AAA/Stable.

One-time Costs: ~₹14 crore in Q4 related to labour codes and the 30-year celebration.

Guidance and Outlook:

Volume: Double-digit India volume growth guided for CY2026, subject to normal weather.

Margins: Historical 22–23%; management confident of maintaining current ~26% India margin as volumes recover.

Q4 CY2025 Management Call HighlightsTwizza Acquisition

The acquisition of Twizza in South Africa is positioned to alleviate existing capacity constraints and optimise the cost structure in Africa’s largest soft drink market.

Capacity and Market Scale

  • Expected to add 70–80% additional capacity to existing South African operations.
  • Management anticipates growth of 80% or higher in the territory.
  • Adds three manufacturing facilities, increasing production locations from five to eight, yielding economies of scale.

Logistics and Distribution Efficiencies

  • Increasing production sites allows VBL to be nearer the market.
  • Proximity to consumers is expected to reduce inward and outward freight expenses.
  • Significantly strengthens route-to-market capabilities.

Infrastructure and Cost Synergies

  • Twizza owns its manufacturing assets, unlike rented operations.
  • Maintains its own fleet of vehicles, providing better control over in-house distribution.
  • Plants are equipped with solar energy.
  • Includes backward integration facilities.
  • Expected to be margin-accretive due to manufacturing efficiencies and reduced logistics costs.

Financials & Ratio Analysis

Income Statement

Particulars

CY25A

CY24A

CY26E

Revenue from Operations

2,16,854

2,45,045

2,81,802

COGS

97,154

1,11,477

1,28,198

EBITDA

50,494

57,586

67,632

PAT

30,681

33,537

40,235

Ratios

Particulars

CY25A

CY24A

CY26E

P/E (x)

50.6

46.3

38.6

EV/EBITDA (x)

31.0

26.6

22.0

ROCE (%)

19.5

18.3

19.1

ROE (%)

15.5

14.6

15.0

Technical Outlook

Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) is covered in the research note dated 26-02-2026 with a target price of ₹519 against a CMP of ₹459, implying an upside of 13% as per the report. From a performance standpoint, the stock has shown mixed relative returns versus the NIFTY across different time frames:

  • 1 Month: VBL −3.3% vs NIFTY +1.0%
  • 3 Months: VBL +1.5% vs NIFTY −1.6%
  • 6 Months: VBL −11.7% vs NIFTY +2.1%
  • 12 Months: VBL +1.7% vs NIFTY +13.0%

Valuation metrics in the note indicate a gradual moderation in multiples over the forecast period:

  • P/E: 50.6x (CY25E), 46.3x (CY26E), 38.6x (CY27E)
  • EV/EBITDA: 31.0x, 26.6x, 22.0x
  • P/B: 7.9x, 6.8x, 5.8x

Return ratios remain broadly stable:

  • ROCE: 19.5% (CY25E), 18.3% (CY26E), 19.1% (CY27E)
  • ROE: 15.5%, 14.6%, 15.0%

Debt-to-equity is projected to move from 0.1x to (0.2)x by CY27E, reflecting balance sheet strengthening as per projections in the note.

Snapshot Table

Parameter

Details

Company

Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)

Report Date

26-02-2026

CMP

₹459

Target Price

₹519

Upside (as per report)

13%

52-Week High / Low

568 / 419

Market Capitalisation

₹155.50 bn

Shareholding Pattern (Q4CY26)

  • Promoter Holding: 59.4%
  • FII Holding: 20.3%
  • DII Holding: 13.6%
  • Others: 6.7%
  • Promoter Pledge: Nil

Key Highlights

Operational Performance – CY2025

The company reported steady growth during CY2025:

  • Consolidated sales volumes increased by 7.9% to 1,213 million cases.
  • Net revenue rose by 8.4% to ₹216,853 million.
  • Profit After Tax increased by 16.2% to ₹30,620.4 million.
  • Consolidated EBITDA margin stood at 23.3%, while the standalone India EBITDA margin was approximately 26%.

Product Mix

The portfolio composition for CY2025 was as follows:

  • Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSD): 73.9%
  • Packaged Drinking Water: 20.2%
  • Non-carbonated beverages: 5.9%
  • Low-sugar and no-sugar variants accounted for approximately 59% of consolidated volumes, indicating a significant contribution from the health-focused portfolio.

International Expansion and Strategic Developments

The report highlights expansion initiatives in Africa, including the proposed Twiza acquisition in South Africa:

  • Expected to add 70–80% additional capacity to existing South African operations.
  • Adds three manufacturing facilities, increasing production locations in the region from five to eight.
  • The snacks business generated ₹340 crore in CY2025, with a ramp-up in Morocco and the commencement of distribution in Zimbabwe and Zambia.
  • Entry into the beer category through a partnership with Carlsberg in Africa; a greenfield brewery project is targeted for readiness by end-2027.

Capex and Financial Position

  • Total capex capitalised in CY2025: ₹45,000 million.
  • Approximately ₹30 billion was incurred in CY2025 toward greenfield projects and integration initiatives.
  • India capex is projected at ₹6–7 billion in CY2026.
  • India operations remain net debt-free with cash reserves of approximately ₹12,250 million.
  • Consolidated net debt stands at approximately ₹256 million.
  • CRISIL upgraded the long-term credit rating to AAA/Stable.

Conclusion

Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) has delivered strong volume and profit growth while expanding capacity and margins. The breakout in price, healthy RSI, and robust fundamentals (double-digit volumes, margin gains, disciplined capex, debt-free balance sheet) support the Buy rating with a target of ₹519 (12-month horizon).

Source: Bajaj Broking Research Desk

Published Date : 27 Feb 2026

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Content Partner - Dalal Street Investment Journal Wealth Advisory Private Limited



This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market investments are subject to risks. DSIJ Wealth Advisory Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Reg. No: INH000006396) and Investment Adviser (Reg. No: INA000001142). Please consult your financial adviser before investing. 

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