Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) is initiated with a BUY rating and a target price of ₹519 (12-month horizon), based on sustained double-digit volume visibility, margin expansion from backward integration, disciplined capex, and a debt-free balance sheet. These factors underpin a multi-year compounding growth profile for the company.
The research note initiates coverage on Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) with a stated target price of ₹519 against a CMP of ₹459 (as on 26-02-2026).
The investment thesis outlined in the report is built around the following structural drivers:
1. Volume Visibility in Core Markets
Management has reiterated a double-digit volume growth outlook supported by:
Weather normalization
Distribution penetration
Category expansion
Rural and semi-urban growth
All four India greenfield plants commissioned in H1 CY25 are expected to provide over 50% incremental capacity without major capex for the next two years.
Additionally, increasing cooler deployment and traction in hydration and dairy categories are highlighted as supporting factors for sustained volume growth.
Low-sugar and no-sugar products now account for approximately 59% of consolidated volumes, reflecting a shift in portfolio mix.
2. Margin Profile Supported by Backwards Integration
The report states that the long-term EBITDA benchmark remains 21%+, with recent performance trending ahead.
Margin support is attributed to:
Backward integration across packaging and coolers
Operating leverage from newly commissioned facilities
Improved fixed-cost absorption in India and Africa
These factors are expected to support margin stability across CY26–CY27, even without pricing intervention.
3. International Expansion & Diversification
The note highlights Africa as a growing contributor to the business.
Key developments include:
Proposed Twiza acquisition in South Africa, adding three manufacturing facilities
Expansion of franchise rights across multiple Southern African nations
Kenya entry through a wholly-owned subsidiary
A greenfield brewery project in partnership with Carlsberg, expected to be ready by end-2027
Scaling of snack manufacturing in Morocco and distribution expansion into Zimbabwe and Zambia
The Twiza acquisition is expected to add 70–80% incremental capacity in South Africa and improve logistics efficiency by increasing production locations from five to eight.
4. Capex Discipline and Balance Sheet Strength
During CY2025, approximately ₹45 billion of capex was capitalised, with around ₹30 billion incurred toward greenfield projects and backward integration.
India capex is projected to moderate to ₹6–7 billion in CY2026.
The India business remains net debt-free with cash reserves of approximately ₹12,250 million, and consolidated net debt stands at approximately ₹256 million, as per the report.
CRISIL has upgraded the company’s long-term credit rating to AAA/Stable.
The research note assigns a 25x EV/EBITDA multiple to CY27E EBITDA, resulting in a target price of ₹519.
The valuation is described as reflecting:
Capacity-led volume growth
Margin gains from backward integration
Capex discipline
Contribution from international scaling and new categories
Particulars | Details |
NSE / BSE | VBL / 540180 |
CMP | ₹459 |
Upside | 13% |
Target Price | ₹519 |
Bloomberg Code | VBL IN |
High / Low | 568 / 419 |
Market Cap | ₹155.50 bn |
Metric | CY25A | CY24A | CY26E |
Revenue (₹ mn) | 2,16,854 | 245,045 | 2,81,802 |
EBITDA (₹ mn) | 50,494 | 57,586 | 67,632 |
PAT (₹ mn) | 30,681 | 33,537 | 40,796 |
EPS (₹) | 9.1 | 9.9 | 12.1 |
Revenue Growth (%) | 8.4 | 13.0 | 15.0 |
EBITDA Growth (%) | 7.2 | 14.0 | 17.4 |
PAT Growth (%) | 16.9 | 9.3 | 21.6 |
EBITDA Margin (%) | 25.3 | 23.5 | 24.0 |
PAT Margin (%) | 14.1 | 13.7 | 14.5 |
P/E (x) | 50.6 | 46.3 | 38.6 |
EV/EBITDA (x) | 31.0 | 26.6 | 22.0 |
ROCE (%) | 19.5 | 18.3 | 19.1 |
ROE (%) | 15.5 | 14.6 | 15.0 |
Volume & Revenue: CY2025 consolidated volumes grew 7.9% to 1,213 million cases; net revenue increased 8.4% to ₹216,553 million.
Profitability: PAT rose 16.2% to ₹30,620.4 million despite weather disruptions.
Margins: Consolidated EBITDA margin stood at 23.3%; India EBITDA margin reached ~26%.
Product Mix: CSD 73.9%, packaged water 20.2%, non-carbonated beverages 5.9%.
Health Portfolio: Low-sugar and no-sugar products formed ~59% of consolidated volumes.
Weather Impact: Heavy rainfall affected peak-season volume growth.
Volume-Value Gap: 4.5% gap in Q4 (volume +10.5%, sales -6%) driven by uptrading and tactical discounts.
Pricing Test: ₹10 price point for Nimbooz tested in select regions; expected at 5–7% of portfolio.
Realisation: Net realisation per case improved 3.4% in Q4 CY2025, led by international gains.
South Africa: Proposed Twizza acquisition adds three manufacturing facilities and operational synergies.
Alcohol Entry: Carlsberg partnership; greenfield brewery targeted by end-2027.
Snacks: Morocco scaled; Zimbabwe and Zambia distribution commenced; CY2025 snack revenue ₹340 crore.
Capex: ₹45,000 million capitalised in CY2025, including four India greenfield plants.
Operating Leverage: Commissioned plants and integration facilities are expected to enhance leverage.
Capacity Headroom: ~50% available capacity in India; low capex outlook for CY2026.
Debt Position: India is net debt-free; cash ~₹12,250 million. Consolidated net debt ~₹256 million.
Credit Rating: CRISIL upgraded to AAA/Stable.
One-time Costs: ~₹14 crore in Q4 related to labour codes and the 30-year celebration.
Volume: Double-digit India volume growth guided for CY2026, subject to normal weather.
Margins: Historical 22–23%; management confident of maintaining current ~26% India margin as volumes recover.
The acquisition of Twizza in South Africa is positioned to alleviate existing capacity constraints and optimise the cost structure in Africa’s largest soft drink market.
Capacity and Market Scale
Logistics and Distribution Efficiencies
Infrastructure and Cost Synergies
Income Statement
Particulars | CY25A | CY24A | CY26E |
Revenue from Operations | 2,16,854 | 2,45,045 | 2,81,802 |
COGS | 97,154 | 1,11,477 | 1,28,198 |
EBITDA | 50,494 | 57,586 | 67,632 |
PAT | 30,681 | 33,537 | 40,235 |
Ratios
Particulars | CY25A | CY24A | CY26E |
P/E (x) | 50.6 | 46.3 | 38.6 |
EV/EBITDA (x) | 31.0 | 26.6 | 22.0 |
ROCE (%) | 19.5 | 18.3 | 19.1 |
ROE (%) | 15.5 | 14.6 | 15.0 |
Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) is covered in the research note dated 26-02-2026 with a target price of ₹519 against a CMP of ₹459, implying an upside of 13% as per the report. From a performance standpoint, the stock has shown mixed relative returns versus the NIFTY across different time frames:
Valuation metrics in the note indicate a gradual moderation in multiples over the forecast period:
Return ratios remain broadly stable:
Debt-to-equity is projected to move from 0.1x to (0.2)x by CY27E, reflecting balance sheet strengthening as per projections in the note.
Snapshot Table
Parameter | Details |
Company | Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) |
Report Date | 26-02-2026 |
CMP | ₹459 |
Target Price | ₹519 |
Upside (as per report) | 13% |
52-Week High / Low | 568 / 419 |
Market Capitalisation | ₹155.50 bn |
Shareholding Pattern (Q4CY26)
Operational Performance – CY2025
The company reported steady growth during CY2025:
Product Mix
The portfolio composition for CY2025 was as follows:
International Expansion and Strategic Developments
The report highlights expansion initiatives in Africa, including the proposed Twiza acquisition in South Africa:
Capex and Financial Position
Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) has delivered strong volume and profit growth while expanding capacity and margins. The breakout in price, healthy RSI, and robust fundamentals (double-digit volumes, margin gains, disciplined capex, debt-free balance sheet) support the Buy rating with a target of ₹519 (12-month horizon).
Source: Bajaj Broking Research Desk
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