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By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)
Sensex weekly expiry outlook: Sensex slipped below 77,000 by 12:48 PM on weekly expiry, after earlier holding above the level. PCR rose from 1.11 to 1.14, while max pain stayed at 77,000. Heavy Put writing at 76,500 and 76,900 signals support, but fresh Call writing near 77,100 and 77,200 shows resistance has moved closer. Bulls must reclaim 77,000 to regain control intraday on expiry.
Compared with the earlier update, the Sensex has lost some strength on the weekly expiry day. At 10:58 AM, the index was trading above the 77,000 mark with gains of nearly 500 points. However, by 12:48 PM, it slipped below 77,000 after trimming gains from higher levels. Despite this moderation, the index is still trading higher by 0.57%, which shows that the recovery has not completely faded, but momentum has clearly cooled.
The Put Call Ratio (PCR) has moved up slightly from 1.11 in the earlier update to 1.14, indicating that put writing remains active. However, the max pain continues to stand at 77,000, making this level the key battleground for the expiry session. The index slipping below 77,000 suggests that bulls are losing some grip, but the higher PCR shows that downside support is still being built.
On the Put side, the 76,500 strike has seen a sharp spike in open interest, making it the strongest support zone for the day. The next highest addition is visible at the 76,900 strike. As a result, the highest Put open interest concentration now stands at 76,500, followed by 76,900.
This marks a small shift from the earlier setup, where 76,500 and 77,000 were the key support levels. The fresh addition at 76,900 shows that traders are trying to defend this as a support level.
On the Call side, the highest fresh open interest addition is seen at the 77,100 strike, followed by 77,200. This is important because, in the earlier update, Call writing was more visible around 77,500 and 77,200. The shift in fresh Call writing closer to the current market level suggests that resistance has moved lower intraday.
However, the highest Call open interest concentration still remains at 77,500, followed by 77,000. This means 77,000 has now become an immediate hurdle, while 77,500 remains the broader resistance for the expiry session.
The options setup indicates that 77,000 remains the most important pivot for the Sensex. In the earlier update, the index was holding above this level, keeping the recovery structure intact. Now that it has slipped below 77,000, the tone has turned more cautious.
A move back above 77,000 may revive buying interest and open the way towards 77,100–77,200. However, if the index fails to reclaim this level, the support zone of 76,900–76,500 could come into play. For now, Sensex expiry action is likely to remain centred around the 77,000 mark, with bulls needing a quick recovery above it to regain control.
After witnessing one of its sharpest falls on Wednesday, July 08, the Sensex opened with a gap up on the BSE weekly expiry day. Interestingly, the opening level turned out to be the day’s low so far, indicating that buying interest emerged right from the start of the session.
As of 10:58 am, the Sensex was trading higher by nearly 500 points and holding above the 77,000 mark. However, the index has trimmed part of its gains from the day’s high, suggesting that traders are still cautious after the previous session’s steep decline.
The Put Call Ratio (PCR) for all expiries stands at 1.11. The max pain level is placed at 77,000, which makes this level important for the remainder of the expiry session.
On the Put side, strong open interest addition is visible at the 76,500 strike, followed by the 77,000 strike. This suggests that option writers are building support around these levels. The maximum Put open interest concentration is also seen at 76,500, followed by 77,000, making this zone a key support base for the index.
On the Call side, fresh open interest addition is visible at the 77,500 strike, followed by the 77,200 strike. The highest Call open interest concentration stands at 77,500, followed by 77,000. This indicates that traders expect resistance to emerge in the 77,200 to 77,500 zone.
The options setup suggests that 77,000 is acting as the central pivot for the Sensex on expiry day. A sustained move above this level may keep the recovery intact, while a slip below 77,000 could bring 76,500 back into focus.
For the bulls, a decisive move above 77,200 will be important to extend the rebound towards 77,500. Until then, the expiry setup points to a tightly contested range between 76,500 and 77,500.
Source: Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ), BSE
SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000006396).
Founded in 1986, Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ) brings decades of experience in India’s equity markets. DSIJ's research combines fundamental analysis with price action, guided by disciplined risk management and capital preservation. They follow a structured, data-driven approach designed to help investors and traders make informed decisions beyond short-term market noise.
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