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RBI Policy Announcement: Rate Cut and Updated Growth Outlook 2025

Synopsis:


RBI’s December 2025 policy review cuts the repo rate to 5.25 percent as inflation eases and domestic demand stays steady. Growth projections remain stable, with balanced risks. The committee maintains a neutral stance while noting favourable inflation and supportive economic conditions.


Source:
RBI | Published on Dec 5, 2025

Disclaimer: This material has been published for informational purposes only. Bajaj Broking does not have any association with or endorse or take any responsibility with respect to the source material. Readers are suggested to refer to the original publication for the complete and accurate context.

RBI News Today

As quoted by RBI on December 05, 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee meets from the 3rd to the 5th of December 2025. The committee reviewed the situation regarding the economy and finance before making the decision.

Policy rate decision

The committee unanimously voted to cut the policy repo rate to 5.25 percent. Henceforth, this changes the standing deposit facility rate to 5.00 percent and the marginal standing facility rate and Bank Rate to 5.50 percent. The stance of policy remains neutral. 

The Global Economic Setting

Global growth is holding up better than expected. Trade activity is normalising after a period of frontloading. Uncertainty has eased due to progress on US trade talks and the end of the government shutdown, but global risks remain.

High and dry inflation is, however, the special fate of many advanced countries. The US dollar lurches on strong demand for safe havens. Equity markets, on the other hand, display a lot of volatility because of international monetary policy changing expectations, as well as concerns about the stretched valuations of some technology companies.

Domestic Growth Condition

Real GDP in India grew 8.2 percent in Q2 of 2025-26, buoyed by intense domestic demand. Real gross value added increased by 8.1 percent led by the burgeoning industrial and services sector.

Growth in the first half of the year has been on account of tax rationalisation, lower crude oil prices, early government capital expenditure, and strong financial conditions.

High-frequency data indicate stable activity in Q3, but early indicators point to some softening. Rural demand remains above par, while urban demand is improving. Private investment is accelerating due to better non-food bank credit and higher capacity utilisation.

Merchandise exports shrank dramatically in October due to very weak global demand, while services exports remained stable. Agriculture remained promising with good kharif production, maintained reservoir levels, and improved soil moisture conditions. Manufacturing and services also presented significant advances.

Outlook for Growth

Strength in agriculture, along with effects of tax rationalisation, lower inflation, and healthier balance sheets, is expected to sustain growth in the near term. Reforms will further assist.

Services exports may continue to perform strongly, but merchandise exports are likely to be under pressure. There are external risks, though quick progress on trade deals can offer valuable support. Real GDP growth is projected at 7.3 percent for 2025 to 2026. It is 7.0 and 6.5 percent for Q3 and Q4, respectively. With a 6.7 percent projection in Q1 and a 6.8 percent projection in Q2, 2026 to 2027 is also expected to show growth.

Inflation Update

Headline CPI inflation plunged to an all-time low in October 2025; the decline was attributed mainly to lower food prices, an unusual phenomenon for this time of year. Core inflation remains subdued even with high price levels in precious metals. Core inflation excluding gold stood at 2.6 percent.

The decrease in inflation has now turned broad-based across categories.

Inflation Outlook

Food supply conditions look good due to a healthy kharif crop, healthy rabi sowing, and good reservoir storage. Except for some metals, global commodity prices are expected to remain moderate.

CPI inflation is projected at 2.0 percent for 2025 to 2026. Q3 inflation is estimated at 0.6 percent, and Q4 at 2.9 percent. Inflation is forecasted at 3.9 percent in the first quarter and 4.0 percent in the second for 2026 to 2027.

Underlying price pressures might be even lower once the effect of precious metals is excluded, which adds about fifty basis points.

Reasons the MPC Cut Rates

The committee saw inflation softening, and it appears likely to stay softer than those previous projections, hence allowing some more downward amendments to the inflation forecast. It would also seem that core inflation will be anchored. Growth remains stable for now but may moderate slightly; the improved outlook for inflation, with buoyant demand, furnished room for activity support. This was reflected in the 25 basis point reduction in the policy rate. Neutral is the stance, though one member preferred moving to an accommodative stance.

What Happens Next

The minutes will be published on 19 December 2025. The next MPC meeting is set to take place from February 4 to 6 in 2026.

Published Date : 05 Dec 2025

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