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Midcap Nifty Targets 13,100 After Bullish Breakout

Midcap Nifty Targets 13,100 After Bullish Breakout

Synopsis:

Bajaj Broking recommends a Bull Call Ratio Spread on Midcap Nifty as the index breaks out above 12,350 with strong bullish signals, targeting 13,100 by expiry. Technicals and OI trends align with this upside potential..


In a compelling bullish setup, Bajaj Broking's Research Desk has highlighted a breakout opportunity in the Midcap Nifty, recommending a Bull Call Ratio Spread strategy with a target of 13,100 by May expiry.

The strategy follows a strong technical breakout, firm derivative data, and favorable risk-reward dynamics. Traders and investors looking to leverage this momentum may find this setup timely and well-supported.

Technical Outlook: Midcap Nifty Breaks Out With Force

The Midcap Nifty index (currently at 12,461.85) has broken out of a two-week consolidation phase, surging above key moving averages and registering a new three-month high.

This decisive breakout has ended a sideways range between 11,800 and 12,350 observed between 24 April and 9 May. According to the Bajaj Broking Research Desk, the RSI crossing above its 9-period moving average is another strong signal of bullish momentum building in the index.

This pattern suggests that the index is now well-poised to rally further, targeting 13,000 in the near term, a level which corresponds to prior swing highs seen in October and December 2024—a significant resistance zone.

Derivative Data Supports the Upside Move

The derivative structure around Midcap Nifty further confirms the positive outlook.

  • Put writers have shifted higher, from 12,000–12,300 to 12,400–12,500, a clear indication of rising confidence post-breakout.

  • The 12,500 level, marked by heavy call open interest, is acting as an immediate resistance.br>

  • However, call unwinding and simultaneous put writing at 12,500 suggest that traders are repositioning for a further breakout above this level.

As call sellers exit their positions, a move beyond 12,500 could trigger short covering, accelerating the rally toward the 13,000–13,100 zone.

Strategy Highlight: Bull Call Ratio Spread

Strategy Details:

  • Buy 1 Lot Midcap Nifty 29th May 12,500 CE @ ₹245.20

  • Sell 2 Lots Midcap Nifty 29th May 13,100 CE @ ₹52.00

  • Estimated Margin: ₹1,50,000

  • Maximum Profit: ₹55,056

  • Loss Threshold: Exit if MTM Loss hits ₹7,300

  • Breakeven Range: 12,641 – 13,559

  • View: Bullish

  • Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:7

This ratio spread is a limited-cost strategy that profits if the index moves closer to the upper sold strike (13,100) but not substantially beyond it. Above 13,559, the position can incur losses, though traders are advised to book profits or exit well before that.

Why This Strategy Works Now

The Bull Call Ratio Spread is ideal in this scenario for several reasons:

  1. Strong Breakout Confirmation: The breakout from a low-volume consolidation phase with increasing open interest points to institutional accumulation and sustained upside.

  2. Defined Risk with High Reward: The strategy provides a limited downside of ₹7,300 while aiming for a maximum profit of over ₹55,000—a rare 1:7 risk-reward setup.

  3. OI Shift and Sentiment Change: The shift in open interest from lower to higher strikes reflects increased conviction among market participants, aligning well with the chosen strike levels.

  4. Target Aligns With Historical Resistance: The 13,000–13,100 zone aligns with technical resistance from late 2024, providing a realistic and achievable short-term objective.

Key Takeaways

  • Midcap Nifty has confirmed a bullish breakout above 12,350.

  • RSI momentum, moving average crossover, and OI data all support the uptrend.

  • The Bull Call Ratio Spread offers an attractive 1:7 reward-to-risk ratio.

  • A close above 12,500 could trigger further momentum via short covering.

  • Bajaj Broking expects the index to hit 13,100 by May expiry.

Conclusion

Midcap Nifty is riding a fresh wave of bullish momentum, and the breakout above the recent consolidation zone signals more gains ahead. Bajaj Broking’s Bull Call Ratio Spread strategy leverages this momentum with calculated risk and attractive profit potential.

As always, disciplined execution and adherence to loss thresholds are critical. Traders should monitor the 12,500 mark closely, as it could serve as the next launchpad for the index. With proper risk management, this setup presents a promising opportunity for bullish participants in the May derivatives series.

Source: Bajaj Broking Research Desk | Dated: 12 May 2025

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