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The Bajaj Broking Research Desk projects a bullish Nifty trend amid geopolitical resilience, strong FII buying, and seasonal strength, forecasting a target of 25,200. The technical setup signals accumulation opportunity on dips through H2 2025.
Source: Bajaj Broking Research Desk
Report Date: 05th May 2025
Resilience Amid Geopolitical and Trade Headwinds
Despite the backdrop of global volatility—ranging from renewed Indo-Pak tensions to U.S. tariff uncertainties—Indian markets have shown remarkable strength. According to the Bajaj Broking Research Desk, Nifty is among the top emerging market performers in 2025, driven by strong earnings and institutional flows.
The Nifty has decisively broken past its key resistance at 23,800, confirming a bullish Golden Crossover (50-day EMA crossing above the 200-day EMA), a historically significant indicator for sustained upward momentum. This setup has previously yielded 88% success over 12 months with an average return of 19%.
Historically, Indo-Pak conflicts have led to an max average drawdown of just 5.27%, followed by strong medium-term recoveries:
Even events like the Kargil War or the 2008 Mumbai attacks saw robust rallies in subsequent months. The message from the Bajaj Broking Research Desk: geopolitical shocks are buying opportunities, not exit signals.
The ongoing trade negotiations between India and the U.S. are nearing resolution. President Trump has suspended a proposed 26% tariff for 90 days as both sides work toward an agreement. India has responded constructively by:
This easing of trade tensions is expected to bolster market sentiment further.
Markets move in cycles, and data from the Bajaj Broking Research Desk shows a clear seasonal trend:
Investing from May onward has historically delivered significantly better returns. Out of the last 24 years, 20 saw positive gains in this period.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have returned strongly to Indian equities, pumping in ₹40,000 crore in the past 12 sessions. This renewed interest is largely due to:
Whenever the FII long/short ratio overtakes retail client positioning, it has historically led to short-term market upswings—another signal favoring a bullish stance.
The Golden Crossover—a bullish signal when the 50-day EMA crosses above the 200-day EMA—is about to materialize on the Nifty. Historical analysis by the Bajaj Broking Research Desk reveals:
This setup encourages a buy-on-dips strategy, especially in quality large-cap and mid-cap stocks.
Nifty Technical View – May 2025
If Nifty holds 23,800, it is likely to continue its uptrend toward 25,200. A decisive move above 24,600 would confirm the next leg of the rally. However, a break below 23,800 may open downside toward 23,000, aligning with past drawdown patterns.
The Bajaj Broking Research Desk recommends a “buy-on-dips” approach based on:
As India enters what has historically been its strongest equity phase of the year, investors are encouraged to accumulate on declines, particularly in high-quality large and midcap names with strong earnings visibility.
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