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By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)
Gold has declined 27% from its January 2026 peak of $5,589 to around $4,093. MCX gold closed at ₹1,47,800 on June 11, 2026. The fall is driven by strong US inflation data, rising expectations for Fed rate hikes, and a stronger dollar. Gold prices are hovering near 11-week low after US Inflation hit a two-year high.
The start of 2026 looked very different for gold. On January 28, 2026, the metal touched $5,589 per ounce, a record high, and sentiment around bullion was broadly positive. That picture has changed considerably since. Spot gold now trades near $4,093, which works out to a fall of roughly 27% from that January peak. On the MCX, Gold Futures were trading at ₹1,47,800 on June 11, 2026, down 0.15% during the session. The session opened at ₹1,46,518 and hit an intraday high of ₹1,48,089 before easing off.
US inflation has come more than expected, the Federal Reserve is now looking more likely to raise rates than cut them, the dollar has strengthened, and the geopolitical fear that had driven investors into gold earlier in the year has partially unwound. Taken together, these forces have been enough to push the metal to its lowest level in 11 weeks.
The data that hit gold prices the hardest came out on June 10, 2026. The US Consumer Price Index for May 2026 showed headline inflation at 4.2% YoY, the highest since April 2023. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.5%, well above the prior reading of 3.8%.
Energy was the main reason. Gasoline prices in the US were up 40.5% YoY, driven largely by crude oil surges linked to the Iran-Israel conflict and ongoing concerns about the Strait of Hormuz. Energy costs alone accounted for over 60% of the monthly increase. Core inflation: the measure that strips out food and energy, rose just 0.2% for the month, actually coming in slightly below forecasts.
None of that nuance mattered much to markets in the immediate aftermath. The headline figure was all that traders needed. Gold fell nearly $100 following the release, dropping to levels not seen since late March.
Gold earns nothing, no coupon, no dividend, no yield of any kind. That makes it particularly vulnerable when interest rates are expected to go up, because investors can simply park money elsewhere and earn a return. This is not a new dynamic.
Following the May CPI print, the CME FedWatch tool showed market pricing in roughly 68–70% odds of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike by December 2026. At the start of 2026, the expectation had been for two rate cuts over the year, almost the opposite of where things stand now. The shift has been rapid and it has weighed on gold throughout.
The next FOMC meeting falls on June 16-17, 2026, which will be the first chaired by Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair. A rate hold is widely expected at this meeting. What markets are really waiting specifically is for the tone, whether Warsh signals that the bar for a hike later in the year is rising or falling.
There is a fairly mechanical relation between the US dollar and gold. Since gold is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar makes it more expensive for buyers in other countries, which tends to dampen demand. The dollar has been firming through June, supported by strong US economic data and the repricing of Fed expectations. That has added another layer of headwind for gold, beyond the direct rate hike concern.
For much of early 2026, gold had a reliable tailwind — fear. The US-Israel-Iran conflict that escalated in late February drove investors sharply into safe-haven assets, and gold was one of the main beneficiaries. At its April high, spot gold was trading around $4,800.
As ceasefire discussions gathered momentum, including a two-week truce in April and May during which the Strait of Hormuz remained open, that safe-haven urgency faded. Every meaningful piece of ceasefire news was met with selling in gold. The situation as of early June remains unsettled. Iran escalated again around June 8, 2026, which gave gold brief support, but the overall level of geopolitical fear in markets is lower than it was at the peak of the conflict. That reduction in safe-haven demand has been a consistent headwind for the metal through May and into June.
From the January 2026 all-time high of $5,589, spot gold has now dropped roughly 27% to around $4,093. From its April high near $4,800, the fall is around 9%.
The case for gold has not entirely collapsed though. As per World Gold Council, central banks around the world have kept buying 244 tonnes net in Q1 2026, with another 17 tonnes added in April. China has now added to its gold reserves for 18 straight months. India and China have both historically stepped up physical gold purchases when prices pull back sharply, and current levels may begin to attract that kind of buying.
What gold does from here largely comes down to three things: whether the Iran situation stabilises or escalates further, what the Fed signals at its June meeting, and whether inflation in the US begins to ease or stays elevated through the summer.
Source: Dalal Street Investment Journal, TradingView, MCX, World Gold Council, Trading Economics
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Content Partner - Dalal Street Investment Journal Wealth Advisory Private Limited
This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market investments are subject to risks. DSIJ Wealth Advisory Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Reg. No: INH000006396) and Investment Adviser (Reg. No: INA000001142). Please consult your financial adviser before investing.
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