The RBI cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25% and maintained a neutral stance. Inflation forecasts were reduced sharply, while GDP projections were raised. Rural demand remains robust, urban demand is recovering, and liquidity measures include a $5 billion swap and ₹1 lakh crore OMO purchases.
Source: Bajaj Broking Research Desk
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has unanimously cut the repo rate by 25 bps at 5.25% and has maintained its monetary policy stance at “neutral.” The MPC convened its policy meeting against the backdrop of robust economic growth, historically low inflation, and the Indian rupee hovering near record low levels of near 90 per US dollar. This year, the RBI lowered the repo rate by a cumulative 125 bps in four meetings, beginning in February. In its October policy, the MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.50% and maintained the policy stance as ‘Neutral’.
Repo Rate and Policy Stance
The RBI cut the repo rate by 25 bps at 5.25% and maintained its neutral stance. The MPC meeting was held against the backdrop of robust economic growth, historically low inflation, and a rupee near record low levels of near 90 per US dollar.
Revised CPI Forecasts
The RBI has cut its FY26 CPI inflation forecast to 2% from 2.6% earlier.
Q3 FY26: cut to 0.6% from 1.8%
Q4 FY26: cut to 2.9% from 4%
Q1 FY27: cut to 3.9% from 4.5%
Q2 FY27: forecast at 4%
Revised GDP Estimates
The RBI has raised FY26 GDP growth estimates to 7.3% from 6.8% earlier.
Q3 FY26: raised to 7% from 6.4%
Q4 FY26: raised to 6.5% from 6.2%
Q1 FY27: raised to 6.7% from 6.4%
Q2 FY27: projected at 6.8%
Rural, Urban, and Supply-Side Trends
Rural demand continues to be robust, and urban demand is recovering steadily. Investment activity remains healthy with private investment gaining steam on the back of expansion in non-food bank credit and high capacity utilisation. On the supply side, agricultural growth is supported by healthy Kharif crop production, higher reservoir levels, and better rabi crop sowing. Manufacturing activity continues to improve while the services sector is maintaining a steady pace.
OMO and FX Operations
The RBI will conduct a three-year dollar–rupee buy–sell swap of $5 billion in December 2025.
The RBI will also conduct Open Market Operation (OMO) purchases of government securities of ₹1 lakh crore.
Lending and Deposit Rate Movement
The RBI noted broad-based transmission. Lending rates have eased 63 bps, and deposit rates have dipped 105 bps. The moderation in the weighted average lending rate of outstanding rupee loans has been to the extent of 63 basis points, and the weighted average domestic term deposit rate on fresh deposits has declined by 105 basis points.
Forex Reserves
India’s forex reserves stand at a healthy USD 686 billion, providing more than 11 months of import cover as of date.
The December policy doesn’t mark a dramatic shift, but it does outline a reassuring balance. Inflation sits lower than anticipated. Growth expectations have improved. Liquidity remains supportive. Transmission is finally aligning with policy intentions. Most importantly, the RBI appears comfortable navigating with flexibility rather than forcing the narrative in one direction. Sometimes, that quiet balance says more than a bold announcement would.
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