GIFT Nifty to open lower as US–Israel–Iran conflict escalates


By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)

Summary:


Indian markets are likely to open lower amid escalating US-Israel-Iran tensions after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was reportedly killed in joint strikes. Global markets slid, crude oil jumped and gold rallied on safe-haven demand. Gift Nifty suggests a weak start, while investors track FII flows, OPEC output moves, and key macroeconomic cues.

India’s Pharma Sector: Aiming for $30 Billion Export Milestone

India’s benchmark equity indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a weak note on Monday amid heightened global tensions. Investor sentiment turned cautious after the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, intensifying the conflict in the Middle East.

Asian markets were trading sharply lower, and US stock futures slipped, while safe-haven assets such as gold rallied. Crude oil prices also surged on concerns over potential supply disruptions.

This week, market participants will closely monitor developments in the US-Iran conflict, movements in crude oil, gold and silver prices, foreign fund flows, and key domestic as well as global macroeconomic data releases.

As of 7:23 am, Gift Nifty was trading around the 25,208 level, down nearly 77 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a negative start for the Indian stock market indices. 

Crude Oil Price Spike and Impact on India

Crude oil prices jumped sharply on Monday morning as an escalation involving Iran disrupted tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital chokepoint for global energy shipments.

For India, a spike in crude is the more serious macro risk, as higher oil prices can quickly stoke inflation, widen the current account deficit, put pressure on the rupee, and drag on equities simultaneously.

US-Israel-Iran Conflict

Tensions in the Middle East intensified after Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was reportedly killed in joint US–Israeli strikes. US President Donald Trump stated that 48 Iranian leaders have died in the ongoing operations. Ayatollah Arafi has been appointed as the Islamic Republic’s interim Supreme Leader.

India's GDP Growth

Under the revised GDP series, India’s economy expanded by 7.8% in the October–December quarter, up from 7.4% in the same period last year. The FY26 full-year growth estimate has been raised to 7.6%, compared with the earlier projection of 7.4% in January. Growth for the previous fiscal year has been revised to 7.1%.

OPEC Output Decision

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has decided to resume oil production hikes next month despite escalating tensions in the Middle East. Major producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, will collectively raise output by 206,000 barrels per day, higher than the 137,000-barrel-per-day monthly increase planned for the fourth quarter.

Auto sales in February 2026: Maruti Suzuki up 7.3%, Mahindra up 18%

Auto stocks reported strong February YoY sales growth, led by Hero MotoCorp with a sharp 44% jump in total sales to 5.58 lakh units, while Maruti Suzuki India posted a 7.3% rise aided by a 56% surge in exports. Hyundai Motor India recorded a 12.6% increase, its best-ever February sales. Tata Motors saw robust growth across segments, with passenger vehicle sales up 35% and EV sales climbing 57%. Mahindra & Mahindra reported an 18% rise in total sales, while TVS Motor Company delivered a strong 31% growth driven by two-wheelers and EV demand.

Stocks to Watch on Monday: Bharti Airtel, GAIL, Hindalco, Bharat Electronics and Others

The stock-specific actions are likely to continue, and here is the list of stocks to watch out for on Monday, March 2, 2026.

Company

Key Update

Bharti Airtel

Partnered with Google to roll out RCS messaging with enhanced spam protection and improved user experience in India.

GAIL (India)

Deepak Gupta appointed as Chairman & Managing Director effective March 1, succeeding Sandeep Kumar Gupta.

Bharat Electronics

Declared interim dividend of ₹1.95 per share for FY26.

Brigade Enterprises

Launched ‘Brigade Stellaris’ residential project in Chennai with a GDV of ₹1,700 crore.

Aurobindo Pharma

The US FDA inspected subsidiary Eugia Pharma’s Telangana facility; the inspection ended with four observations.

Stock in F&O Ban on March 2

For today, Sammaan Capital will remain on the F&O ban list.

Institutional Flows – FIIs and DIIs

On February 2, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers, having sold equities worth ₹7,536.36 crore. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), on the other hand, bought shares totalling ₹12,292.81 crore during the same session.

FIIs have emerged as net sellers for the month of February, with net selling of ₹6,640.78 crore so far. 

Friday’s Market Action

On Friday, the Indian stock market crashed as the escalating US-Iran war weighed on investor sentiment amid the absence of a fresh domestic trigger.

The Sensex cracked 961.42 points, or 1.17%, to close at 81,287.19, while the Nifty 50 settled 317.90 points, or 1.25%, lower at 25,178.65.

Wall Street Closed Lower on Friday; US Stock Futures Tanked Over 1%

US stock futures slumped on Friday amid escalating tensions linked to the Iran conflict. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 517 points, or 1%, while S&P 500 futures dropped 1% and Nasdaq-100 futures slid more than 1%.

On Friday, Wall Street closed lower, weighed down by weakness in financial and technology stocks, with all three major benchmarks posting sharp weekly losses. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recorded their steepest monthly declines since March 2025, while the Dow still managed to notch its tenth consecutive month of gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 521.28 points, or 1.05%, to end at 48,977.92. The S&P 500 slipped 29.98 points, or 0.43%, to 6,878.88, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 210.17 points, or 0.92%, to close at 22,668.21.

Among major movers, shares of Nvidia dropped 4.2%, while AMD declined 1.7%. Microsoft fell 2.24%, Apple lost 3.21%, and Tesla slipped 1.49%.

Elsewhere, Zscaler tumbled 12.2%, while Netflix surged 13.8%. Warner Bros. Discovery declined 2.2%; Paramount Skydance soared 20.8%; Block Inc. jumped 16.8%; and Dell Technologies rallied 21.9%.

Commodities – Gold, Silver and Crude Oil 

Gold prices rallied, as the war in the Middle East increased safe-haven demand. The spot gold price rose 1.4% to $5,353.61 an ounce, while silver prices gained 1.5% to $95.23 an ounce. As of 7:16 am, spot silver was trading at $93.28, down by 0.52%.

Crude oil prices jumped 7% to their highest levels in months due to the Middle East conflict following US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, with the vital Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and several ships attacked. 

As of 7:17 am, the Brent crude oil price shot up 4.8% to $75.91 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rallied 3.61% to $69.69.

 

Published Date : 02 Mar 2026

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Content Partner - Dalal Street Investment Journal Wealth Advisory Private Limited



This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market investments are subject to risks. DSIJ Wealth Advisory Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Reg. No: INH000006396) and Investment Adviser (Reg. No: INA000001142). Please consult your financial adviser before investing. 

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