By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)
FIIs turned net sellers on Friday, logging their highest single-day selling since August 2025. On the domestic macro front, traders will track WPI data and trade balance numbers for cues on inflation trends, the rupee, and overall risk appetite. Meanwhile, IT stocks remain in focus after last week’s heavy sell-off, with the market watching closely for any relief rally. Ola’s share price is also likely to stay active following its latest earnings update.
On Monday, February 16, 2026, the Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open lower, with GIFT Nifty indicating a negative start early this morning. As of 07:30 AM, the GIFT Nifty is trading 12.5 points lower, or 0.05%, at 25,444.
Asian equities opened the week on a cautious note, with most indices trading in the red. Japan’s benchmark slipped about 0.14% even after GDP figures showed the economy returned to growth in Q4 2025 following a contraction in the previous quarter. The yen eased around 0.2% against the US dollar, adding to the subdued tone. Meanwhile, Lunar New Year holidays are likely to keep volumes light across the region, with mainland China shut for the week and Hong Kong and Singapore set for shortened sessions.
Key Domestic Triggers For Monday, February 16: WPI Data and Trade Balance
1) Wholesale Price Index (WPI)
Markets will track the WPI data later today. India’s WPI rose 0.83% year on year in December 2025, beating expectations of a 0.30% increase and reversing a 0.32% decline in November. This was the first rise in three months and the sharpest pace since April, largely driven by a quicker climb in manufacturing prices.
2) Trade balance:
India’s trade deficit widened to $25 billion in December, the highest ever recorded for the month.
Imports: +8.8% YoY
Exports: +1.8% YoY
A sustained gap between imports and exports can keep pressure on the rupee and may temper equity market sentiment.
IT sector stocks will be in the limelight following an over 8% decline last week. After a weak third-quarter performance, Ola Electric is another stock on the market's radar. Other stocks to watch include Torrent Pharma, Fortis, Inox Wind, and NBCC (India).
Fractal Analytics and Aye Finance are the two main board initial public offerings set to debut on Dalal Street.
Back home, after buying for five consecutive days, FIIs resumed selling, with net sales of ₹7,395 crore on February 13, while DIIs bought equities worth ₹5,554 crore. That said, this was the highest selling by FIIs since August 29, 2025.
Last week, the Nifty ended sharply lower as concerns around AI continued to hang over the market. What looked like a routine risk-off phase quickly turned into a clear contest between the index’s traditional software exposure and the accelerating shift towards AI-led disruption. And the outcome was unforgiving. Heavy selling in IT majors dragged sentiment as investors weighed the possibility that AI could reshape business models, compress pricing power, and reduce long-term earnings visibility for IT services firms.
On Friday, major Wall Street indices saw muted movement following a sharp sell-off on February 12. The Dow surged 0.10% higher, and the S&P 500 was up 0.05%, while the Nasdaq declined 0.22%. This muted reaction followed cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data.
According to Reuters, the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-on-year, lower than the consensus estimate of around 2.5%. This softer inflation data increases the likelihood of easing monetary policy later this year, which lent some support to equities.
Over the week, the Nasdaq fell 2.1%, while the S&P 500 and the Dow declined 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively.
Gold prices retreated from higher levels of the day on Monday and were seen trading marginally lower. As of writing, gold prices were trading down 0.12% at $5,040/oz. Meanwhile, silver prices saw a drastic fall of 2% at $76.4/oz.
SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000006396).
Founded in 1986, Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ) brings decades of experience in India’s equity markets. DSIJ's research combines fundamental analysis with price action, guided by disciplined risk management and capital preservation. They follow a structured, data-driven approach designed to help investors and traders make informed decisions beyond short-term market noise.
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