Global markets remained cautious as the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting approached. Nifty is expected to trade between 25,700–26,200, supported by the 50-day EMA. Key drivers include FOMC outcomes, India’s CPI data, and US–India trade developments.
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Global equity markets traded cautiously on Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of the US Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, which is widely expected to result in the third rate cut of the year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 178 points, or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite also edged lower by 0.1%. Despite the cautious tone in large caps, a notable sector rotation was visible as the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index touched a fresh all-time intraday high, supported by expectations of easier monetary policy.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut now stands at nearly 89%, with the Fed’s current policy rate in the 3.75%–4.00% range.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose marginally by over 1 basis point to 4.184%. Gold gained 0.4% to $4,205.36 per ounce as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Fed decision. Silver surged to an unprecedented $60 per ounce amid supply constraints.
The US Dollar Index strengthened 0.2% to 99.22. Meanwhile, Brent crude futures fell 0.88% to settle at $61.94 per barrel.
Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher on Wednesday as investors awaited China’s inflation data and the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.82%, while the Topix gained 0.65%. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.22%, whereas the Kosdaq slipped 0.19%.
Gift Nifty indicates a flat-to-negative start for Indian equities. Nifty is expected to trade within the 25,700–26,000 range in today’s session.
In the previous session, Indian markets closed lower on December 9 as cautious global sentiment and persistent foreign investor selling weighed on benchmarks. Concerns intensified after the US hinted at potential tariff actions on Indian rice exports.
The Sensex declined 436.41 points (0.51%) to 84,666.28, while the Nifty fell 120.90 points (0.47%) to 25,839.65. IT, auto, and metal stocks declined 0.3%–1%, while realty, telecom, capital goods, and PSU banks gained 0.5%–1%. Midcaps edged up 0.3%, while small-caps outperformed with a 1.1% rise.
The Nifty formed a high-wave candle with a long lower shadow, indicating strong buying interest near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which continues to act as a key support.
Immediate support is placed at 25,700–25,800, aligned with the bullish gap from November 12, the 50-day EMA, and a crucial retracement zone of the prior uptrend. Holding above this band is essential to sustain the current positive momentum.
The Nifty is expected to consolidate within the 25,700–26,200 range. A decisive breakout or breakdown from this zone will determine the next directional move. Key near-term triggers include the US FOMC outcome, India’s CPI data, and developments in the US–India trade agreement.
Nifty
Resistance: 25,920 | 26,000
Support: 25,740 | 25,670
Bank Nifty
Resistance: 59,470 | 59,650
Support: 58,960 | 58,700
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