Markets turn volatile after U.S.–Iran talks collapse, driving oil prices higher and global equities lower. Nifty remains in an uptrend but overbought, with key levels in focus amid rising geopolitical risks and cautious investor sentiment.
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Global markets started the week on a cautious note as high-stakes U.S.–Iran peace talks collapsed after an intense 21-hour negotiation in Islamabad. The failure to secure a long-term nuclear commitment from Iran has placed the fragile two-week ceasefire under immediate threat, significantly raising geopolitical risks.
Iran has taken a firm stance, warning that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will not resume until a reasonable agreement is reached. Adding to the escalation, U.S. Vice President JD Vance exited the talks without a deal, while President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait starting Monday. This sharp turn in events has triggered immediate reactions across global markets.
Crude oil prices surged sharply, with both U.S. crude and Brent rising nearly 8%, reflecting fears of supply disruptions. U.S. futures dropped around 1%, signaling risk-off sentiment, while bond yields edged higher to 4.35% and the dollar strengthened. Interestingly, gold declined 1.1%, reversing last week’s gains despite heightened uncertainty.
U.S. equity markets had ended Friday on a mixed note, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.1%, Dow Jones declining 0.6%, and Nasdaq gaining 0.4%, as inflation data offset geopolitical concerns.
Asian markets mirrored the global risk sentiment, opening lower amid fears of a prolonged U.S.–Iran conflict. Rising oil prices are expected to strain global economies further. Japan’s Nikkei and Topix declined 0.84% and 0.42%, respectively, while South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq fell 1.83% and 1.43%.
Back home, Gift Nifty opened gap-down, with volatility expected to remain high, especially due to weekly expiry. Nifty is likely to trade within a broad range of 23,500–24,100 in today’s session.
In the previous session, Indian markets showed strong momentum. The Sensex gained 918.60 points (+1.20%) to close at 77,550.25, while the Nifty rose 275.50 points (+1.16%) to settle at 24,050.60. Broader markets also participated, with Midcap and Smallcap indices advancing 1.5% each. Sectoral performance remained broad-based, with most sectors gaining 1–2%, except IT, which declined 1.7%.
From a technical standpoint, Nifty continues to exhibit strength, forming a bullish candlestick pattern with a higher high and higher low, indicating continuation of the pullback. However, the index has rallied 1800 points in just six sessions, pushing indicators into overbought territory.
This suggests that some consolidation is likely within the 23,100–24,100 range.
Intraday Levels:
Nifty: Resistance at 24,100 & 24,220 | Support at 23,680 & 23,500
Bank Nifty: Resistance at 56,000 & 56,300 | Support at 54,750 & 54,200
Key corporate actions remain in focus:
Mahindra & Mahindra to divest its 99.04% stake in Erkunt Foundry, marking a strategic exit.
Larsen & Toubro strengthens its real estate portfolio with a 100% acquisition of International Green Scapes.
Lupin expands its U.S. presence with the launch of Dapagliflozin tablets post US FDA approval.
Enviro Infra Engineers secured projects worth ₹972.2 crore.
AstraZeneca Pharma India received approval to import and sell Acalabrutinib tablets.
Swiggy saw key leadership exits effective April 10.
Despite global uncertainty, derivatives data indicates a bullish undertone:
Call writers shifting positions higher suggests upside expectations.
Strong put writing near 24,000–24,100 creates multiple support zones.
Nifty sustaining above 24,000 reinforces positive bias.
For Bank Nifty, strong support is seen at 56,000, with upside potential toward 57,000 if levels hold. Overall sentiment remains positive, with dips likely to be bought as long as key supports are intact.
Markets are currently at the intersection of strong domestic momentum and rising global uncertainty. While technical and derivative indicators suggest a bullish bias, escalating geopolitical tensions—particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—could drive near-term volatility. Traders should remain cautious, closely tracking key levels and global developments as markets navigate this uncertain phase.
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