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Global markets eased on Strait tensions as oil rose. Asian markets stayed positive, with GIFT Nifty indicating a firm start. Nifty likely to trade in the 24,100–24,600 range amid volatility.
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Global markets remained cautious after Donald Trump extended the U.S.–Iran ceasefire by two weeks, providing a temporary negotiation window but keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated. Oil prices stayed near recent highs amid supply concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, while gold rose 0.38% to $4,738, reflecting safe-haven demand.
On the macro front, U.S. retail sales surged 1.7% MoM in March, the strongest in a year, highlighting resilient consumer demand. However, equity markets reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 falling 0.63% to 7,064.02, Nasdaq declining 0.59% to 24,259.96, and Dow Jones slipping 0.59% to 49,149.39. Bond yields eased slightly to 4.29%, while the Dollar Index remained stable at 98.34.
Across asset classes, crude oil slipped 0.95% to $98.11 per barrel, while USD/INR held steady at 93.44 and India’s 10-year G-Sec yield remained stable at 6.89%. Bitcoin continued its upward momentum, gaining 0.92% to $76,361.
Asian markets opened mixed amid lingering geopolitical concerns. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.1% and Topix declined 0.3%, while South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.16% and Kosdaq slipped 0.42%, with attention on the upcoming Bank of Japan policy meeting.
Back home, Gift Nifty indicates a negative and volatile start, with Nifty expected to trade in the 24,200–24,750 range. In the previous session, Indian markets ended strong, with Sensex rising 753.03 points (+0.96%) to 79,273.33 and Nifty gaining 211.75 points (+0.87%) to 24,576.60. Broader markets remained firm, with Midcaps up 0.5% and Smallcaps gaining around 1%, while FMCG and Realty led sectoral gains.
Technically, Nifty continues to show strength with a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows, sustaining above its 50-day EMA. The bias remains positive above the 23,850–24,100 zone, with potential upside towards 24,700–24,800. However, volatility is expected to stay high due to geopolitical tensions and crude price movements. Key short-term support is placed at 23,600–23,500, while intraday resistance stands at 24,640 and 24,750. Bank Nifty holds a positive structure above 57,000, with resistance at 57,500–57,800.
On the stock-specific front, Aurobindo Pharma announced a ₹800 crore buyback, while BEML secured a ₹590 crore defence order. Additionally, PNC Infratech emerged as the lowest bidder for highway projects worth ₹3,483 crore. Institutional flows showed DII buying at ₹2,221 crore, while FII selling stood at ₹1,918 crore.
Derivatives data remains supportive, with FII long additions and short covering improving the Long-Short Ratio to 0.29, indicating strengthening bullish undertone. Put writing at 24,500 continues to reinforce support, while resistance is placed around 24,700. Bank Nifty also shows strong support at 57,000 with scope for gradual upside if resistance levels are breached.
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