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Bajaj Broking projects Bank Nifty May Futures to reach 56,400 after a bullish breakout from consolidation. Shallow retracement, strong support at 55,000, and a buy signal from stochastic indicators point to continued upward momentum.
Bank Nifty has broken out from a 12-session falling channel, a pattern that had capped the index within a corrective consolidation phase. This breakout signals a resumption of the prior uptrend, with Bajaj Broking's Research Desk now projecting Bank Nifty May Futures to potentially rally towards the 56,400 level in the short term.
Over the past 12 trading sessions, Bank Nifty underwent a shallow retracement, correcting only 38.2% of its sharp 9-session rally from 49,157 to 56,098. Such limited downside movement, especially over an extended period, often reflects underlying bullish strength and a strong potential for higher-bottom formation.
This technical setup is reinforced by the breakout above the falling channel, which acts as a bullish reversal pattern. According to the Bajaj Broking team, this move indicates a high probability of the index extending its upward trajectory in the near term.
A further sign of strengthening momentum is the daily stochastic oscillator, which has flashed a fresh buy signal. Stochastics are momentum indicators that suggest oversold or overbought conditions; a buy signal at this stage adds technical confirmation to the breakout narrative.
The next target, as identified by Bajaj Broking, is 56,400—corresponding to the 123.6% external retracement of the recent breather from 56,194 to 53,585. This level is seen as a significant technical objective for the current leg of the rally.
The Bajaj Broking strategy for traders is as follows:
Buy Level: 55,330
Average Entry: 54,760
Effective Cost: 55,045
Target: 56,400
Stoploss: 54,400
Profit Potential: 1,355 points
Risk: 645 points
The risk-to-reward ratio stands at over 2:1, making the setup favorable for traders looking for momentum opportunities in index futures.
From the options market perspective, there is supportive evidence for an upside move:
The highest call open interest (OI) is currently at 63,000, suggesting that the market does not expect major upside resistance until that level.
On the downside, the highest put OI is at 55,000, indicating strong support and likely institutional positioning around this strike.
What’s more, the market has witnessed call unwinding at 55,500, combined with put OI addition, which indicates that short positions in calls are being exited while new bullish bets are being placed via puts. A move above 55,500, therefore, has the potential to trigger short-covering and accelerate gains further.
Bank Nifty has confirmed a breakout from a corrective channel after a shallow retracement phase.
Stochastic indicators have flashed a buy signal, reinforcing a bullish outlook.
Bajaj Broking targets a short-term upside to 56,400 for May Futures with an effective buy level of 55,045 and stop loss at 54,400.
Options data further supports a positive bias with strong support at 55,000 and potential short covering above 55,500.
The breakout from the falling channel, supported by a shallow retracement and strong derivative positioning, points to a bullish continuation in Bank Nifty May Futures. With technical indicators aligning in favor of an upward move and a calculated target of 56,400, traders may find a compelling opportunity in the current setup.
However, as always, risk management remains key, with a clearly defined stop loss at 54,400. Investors and traders are advised to evaluate the trade in the context of their own risk appetite and consult their advisors before making investment decisions.
Source: Bajaj Broking Research Desk | Dated: 12 May 2025
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