What RBI Bulletin Says About India’s Economy Amid West Asia Conflict  


By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)

Summary:

 

RBI Bulletin highlights early signs of slowdown due to the West Asia conflict, with March high-frequency indicators showing a mixed picture. E-way bills, GST collections, fuel consumption and digital payments remained strong, while port cargo, air passenger traffic, electricity demand, core industries and PMI readings showed moderation.

RBI

Growth Momentum Intact, But Early Signs of Cooling Emerge

The Indian economy continues to demonstrate resilience despite a significant supply shock triggered by the ongoing conflict in West Asia. Reinforcing this stability, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has marginally upgraded India’s GDP growth forecast for FY27 to 6.5%, from 6.4%. However, beneath this steady headline number, early signs of moderation are beginning to surface across select high-frequency indicators.

According to the Reserve Bank of India’s latest monthly bulletin, indicators such as port cargo volumes, air passenger traffic, and purchasing managers’ outlook point towards a gradual loss of momentum. While the economy is not weakening materially, the pace of expansion appears to be easing in pockets.

Inflation Under Control, But Risks Tilted to the Upside

Inflation remains within the RBI’s tolerance band, supported by timely government interventions and efficient supply management. However, risks are gradually building. Supply-side disruptions ranging from geopolitical tensions to weather uncertainties are beginning to exert upward pressure.

The RBI has also flagged the possibility of second-round effects, where initial supply shocks could spill over into demand conditions. This transmission, if sustained, could complicate the inflation outlook and warrant closer policy monitoring.

Demand Resilience Supported by Rural Recovery

Domestic demand continues to hold up well, with rural consumption playing a key stabilising role. Automobile sales and vehicle registrations remain robust, aided in part by GST-related benefits.

High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity in March

High-frequency indicators of economic activity painted a mixed picture in March. E-way bills continued to record double-digit growth, supported by GST rate rationalisation and strong goods movement. GST revenues also surged, reflecting sustained consumption demand and better compliance.

Fuel consumption, however, showed a more uneven trend. Petrol and diesel demand rose, partly due to precautionary buying amid fears of supply disruptions. Overall petroleum consumption moderated, mainly because aviation turbine fuel demand fell sharply after widespread flight suspensions linked to the West Asia conflict.

Digital payments remained strong in both value and volume terms. Electricity demand stayed moderate, largely due to above-normal rainfall during the first 25 days of March, which reduced cooling demand. Meanwhile, toll collections continued to decline, reflecting the impact of the FASTag Annual Pass scheme introduced in August 2025.

RBI

Source: RBI

Manufacturing and Services Lose Some Steam: Manufacturing PMI to 4-Year Low

While both manufacturing and services sectors remain in expansionary territory, the pace of growth has moderated. The manufacturing PMI slipped to a near four-year low, reflecting softer new orders and output growth amid rising cost pressures. Similarly, the services PMI eased to a 14-month low, indicating some cooling in new business activity.

The index of eight core industries also declined to a 19-month low, led by reduced output in fertilisers, crude oil, coal, and electricity; pointing towards broader industrial softness.

Agriculture Outlook Hinges on Monsoon Dynamics

Agricultural prospects remain mixed. While favourable summer sowing for pulses, oilseeds, and coarse cereals provides some comfort, concerns persist over input supply disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict.

More importantly, the possibility of below-normal monsoon rainfall due to El Niño conditions poses a downside risk to agricultural output. That said, adequate reservoir levels and healthy foodgrain stocks offer a buffer against immediate supply concerns.

External Sector Shows Improvement Despite Regional Disruptions

India’s trade deficit narrowed to a nine-month low in March, supported by sequential growth in exports and a contraction in imports. However, trade flows with West Asia have been impacted due to the ongoing conflict, highlighting vulnerabilities in regional linkages.

Policy Outlook: RBI Maintains Neutral Stance

In this evolving macro environment, the Monetary Policy Committee has opted to keep policy rates unchanged while maintaining a ‘neutral’ stance. This approach provides the RBI with flexibility to respond to incoming data, particularly as growth and inflation signals remain mixed.

Forward-looking surveys indicate softening consumer confidence and moderation in business optimism, alongside rising cost pressures; factors that the central bank will monitor closely in the coming months.

Conclusion:  Resilient Yet Uneven Recovery

India’s macroeconomic narrative remains one of resilience, but not without emerging fault lines. Demand conditions are holding firm, supported by rural recovery and stable consumption trends. However, moderation in industrial activity, rising cost pressures, and global uncertainties suggest that the growth trajectory may become more uneven going forward.

The key monitorables now include inflation trends, monsoon progression, and the extent of geopolitical disruptions; each of which could shape the next phase of India’s economic cycle.

About the Author

SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000006396).


Founded in 1986, Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ) brings decades of experience in India’s equity markets. DSIJ's research combines fundamental analysis with price action, guided by disciplined risk management and capital preservation. They follow a structured, data-driven approach designed to help investors and traders make informed decisions beyond short-term market noise. 

Published Date : 24 Apr 2026

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Content Partner - Dalal Street Investment Journal Wealth Advisory Private Limited



This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market investments are subject to risks. DSIJ Wealth Advisory Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Reg. No: INH000006396) and Investment Adviser (Reg. No: INA000001142). Please consult your financial adviser before investing. 

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