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By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)
India has restricted imports of key silver bar categories to reduce pressure on the rupee and foreign exchange reserves. The move is expected to tighten domestic supply, push silver prices higher, and impact jewellers, traders, and investors.
India has moved quickly to tighten its grip on silver imports. In a notification issued on May 16, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade shifted key categories of silver bars from the 'free' to the 'restricted' import regime, meaning importers now require prior government approval before bringing silver into the country. The move came into effect immediately and follows a series of steps the government has taken in recent weeks to reduce pressure on the rupee and the current account deficit.
Under the revised framework notified by the DGFT (Directorate General of Foreign Trade), importers will now require prior government approval to bring several categories of silver bars into India. The rules took immediate effect following the official notification issued on May 16.
India placed imports of silver bars with 99.9% purity and all other semi-manufactured forms of silver under the restricted category. The two categories together accounted for more than 90% of the country's silver imports in the last fiscal year.
This is a significant tightening. Until now, these categories could be imported freely without any special licence. Going forward, every shipment will need government clearance, which will slow the flow of silver into the country considerably.
The restriction does not stand alone. It is part of a broader policy response to a worsening external account situation. The government recently raised customs duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15% and restricted the amount of customs exemptions available to manufacturers.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered a national address on May 10, urging citizens to refrain from buying gold and silver to support the national economy. As per Reuters, India's silver imports for the fiscal year 2025-26, which ended last March, jumped to a record high of $12 billion, compared to $4.8 billion last year.
The revised duty structure, combining a 10% basic customs duty with a 5% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess, came into effect from midnight on May 13, triggering instant repricing across commodity and financial markets.
The rupee has been under severe pressure, having touched an all-time low of ₹96.33 against the dollar in recent sessions. With crude oil prices elevated above $110 per barrel and the current account deficit widening, the government is trying to reduce the outflow of foreign exchange on non-essential imports. Precious metals, given the scale of India's import dependence, are an obvious target.
The immediate consequence of restricting supply is higher domestic prices. "This move will reduce imports and tighten supplies in the local market," said Chirag Thakkar, chief executive of Amrapali Group Gujarat, a leading silver importer. "Silver had been trading at a discount after the government raised import duties, but it is likely to start trading at a premium in the coming weeks."
On the Multi Commodity Exchange, on May 13, 2026, silver futures for July delivery climbed over ₹21000, or 7.5%, crossing the mark of ₹3,00,000 per kilogram following the duty hike. Spot gold in international markets remained largely unchanged at the time, confirming that the entire domestic price move was duty-driven rather than a reflection of global sentiment.
For retail buyers, whether investors, traders, or jewellers, stocking up ahead of the wedding and festival season means silver is going to cost more. The combination of higher import duty and restricted supply creates a structurally higher price floor in the domestic market unless the policy is reversed.
The restriction could also affect global silver markets, though in the opposite direction. As per Reuters, any decline in demand from India, which relies on imports for over 80% of its needs, may affect prices around the world. India is the largest consumer of silver globally, and any substantial decline in its purchasing is likely to attract the attention of global markets.
There is a longstanding concern whenever import duties on precious metals rise sharply. The hike follows Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appeal urging Indians to avoid buying gold for a year, a rare public call that emphasised just how seriously the government is treating the pressure on reserves.
India meets almost all of its gold consumption through imports, making the metal a significant contributor to the trade deficit. Industry voices have privately flagged the risk of a revival in grey market activity, which was a significant problem the last time duties were at elevated levels.
This restriction on silver imports is one piece of a larger policy response to a difficult external environment. With the rupee at a record low, crude oil prices elevated, and foreign investors reducing exposure to India, the government is trying to reduce every possible source of foreign exchange outflow. Precious metals, given their scale of import dependence, have come directly into the line of fire.
For investors holding silver or considering buying it, the near-term direction of domestic prices is likely upward as long as the import restrictions and elevated duties remain in place.
Source: Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)
SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000006396).
Founded in 1986, Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ) brings decades of experience in India’s equity markets. DSIJ's research combines fundamental analysis with price action, guided by disciplined risk management and capital preservation. They follow a structured, data-driven approach designed to help investors and traders make informed decisions beyond short-term market noise.
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