Bajaj Broking Research Desk's High Conviction MTF Pick: Allied Blenders and Distillers Targets 14% Upside

Synopsis:


Allied Blenders and Distillers Ltd. is demonstrating a shift toward a higher-quality growth and earnings profile, supported by premiumisation, luxury portfolio expansion, channel diversification, and integrated capacity creation. The premium-and-above portfolio grew 16.9% YoY in Q3 FY26 and increased its salience to 48.5% from 42% in Q3 FY25. The report outlines a target price of ₹656, based on 40x FY28 earnings, with a 14% upside from the current market price of ₹575.

Bajaj Broking Research Desk has identified Allied Blenders and Distillers Ltd. (ABDL) as a high conviction MTF pick. The company is demonstrating a shift toward a higher-quality growth and earnings profile, supported by premiumisation, luxury portfolio expansion, channel diversification, and integrated capacity creation.

The premium and above ("P&A") portfolio grew 16.9% YoY in Q3 FY26 and increased its salience to 48.5% from 42% in Q3 FY25. Management expects P&A to continue growing in the double digits, while mass premium is expected to deliver low-single-digit growth. ICONiQ White is running at about 1 million cases per month, with the brand expected to cross 10 million cases in FY26. ABD Maestro recorded a Q3 FY26 run-rate of about ₹40 crore, with a stated target to double in the next financial year.

Trade Setup

Parameter

Level

CMP

₹575

Target Price

₹656

Upside

14%

Market Cap

₹159.74 bn

High / Low

₹720 / ₹303

Financial Summary

Particulars

FY26E

FY27E

FY28E

Revenue (Rs Mn)

40,479

46,550

53,533

EBITDA (Rs Mn)

5,262

6,517

8,030

PAT (Rs Mn)

2,578

3,438

4,439

EPS

9.5

12.7

16.4

EBITDA Margin

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

PAT Margin

6.4%

7.4%

8.3%

P/E

60.1

45.1

34.9

ROE

14.3%

16.0%

17.2%

ROCE

25.0%

26.4%

27.1%

Investment Rationale

Premiumisation-led Growth Visibility

The core growth engine remains the P&A portfolio, which grew 16.9% YoY in Q3 FY26 and increased its salience to 48.5% from 42% in Q3 FY25. Management expects P&A to continue growing at double digits, while mass premium is expected to deliver low single-digit growth.

Capacity Expansion and Strategic Market Access

ABDL's capex programme is aligned with growth and margin expansion. Phase 1 backward integration involves ₹525 crore, while phase 2 additions in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra take the total announced capex to just over ₹700 crore. PET has been fully commissioned, and the Telangana malt distillery and Maharashtra ENA distillery are on track. The Uttar Pradesh project is designed to reduce transport costs, lower working capital, and eliminate the ₹27 per case franchise fee on roughly 6 million cases.

Margin Expansion and Balance Sheet Improvement

Management highlighted a structurally improving margin profile, supported by an estimated 300 bps expansion in gross margins by FY28. The PET project has already realised roughly 70 bps. ABDL generated ₹173 crore of operating cash flow in Q3 FY26 and reduced net debt to ₹785 crore from ₹893 crore despite ongoing capex.

Bharti Airtel Limited

Trade

1834.57.90 (0.43 %)

Updated - 08 May 2026
1840.80day high
DAY HIGH
1815.20day low
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4839183
VOLUME (BSE)

Andhra Pradesh Approval Strengthens Expansion Pipeline

The Government of Andhra Pradesh revived the company's Letter of Intent until September 26, 2028, and permitted ABDL to obtain a DM2 (MGO) licence for setting up a greenfield IMFL bottling plant in the state. The proposed facility carries an annual capacity of approximately 46.5 lakh cases. The approval remains subject to the fulfilment of specified conditions, including payment of dues.

Valuation

The target price of ₹656 is based on 40x FY28 earnings. Key monitorables over the coming quarters include Q4 FY26 growth momentum, normalisation in Telangana, stabilisation in Maharashtra, execution of the UP and Aurangabad projects, and timely realisation of backward integration benefits.

Published Date : 08 May 2026

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Content Partner - Dalal Street Investment Journal Wealth Advisory Private Limited



This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market investments are subject to risks. DSIJ Wealth Advisory Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Reg. No: INH000006396) and Investment Adviser (Reg. No: INA000001142). Please consult your financial adviser before investing. 

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