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The World Bank projects global growth at 2.3% in 2025, marking the slowest pace since 2008 outside recessions. India is expected to grow 6.3% in FY26, driven by services, even as export prospects face global trade challenges.
The World Bank has sharply revised its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3%, down from earlier projections, amid rising trade tensions and weakening investment sentiment. The institution’s latest Global Economic Prospects report highlights a deceleration across most economies, pushing global output well below January expectations. A gradual recovery is forecasted, with global growth expected to rise to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027.
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Global growth forecast cut to 2.3% in 2025, weakest since 2008 (ex-recessions)
India to grow at 6.3% in FY26, down 0.4 percentage points from January
Trade barriers and weak exports weigh on emerging markets
Global trade growth expected at 1.8% in 2025, far below pre-pandemic levels
Inflation projected to average 2.9% in 2025 and 2026
Global investment slowing while public debt climbs
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India is expected to maintain its role as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies with a forecasted 6.3% expansion in FY26. The slight downgrade reflects weaker export demand due to trade barriers and sluggish global activity. However, growth is projected to recover to an average of 6.6% during FY26–FY27, supported by domestic demand and service-led exports.
In comparison, the Reserve Bank of India has maintained its FY26 projection at 6.5%. The IMF’s May forecast for India also remains close, pegging FY26 growth at 6.2%.
Country | 2026 Growth | 2027 Growth |
India | 6.3% | 6.5% |
US | 1.4% | 1.6% |
China | 4.5% | 4.0% |
Japan | 0.7% | 0.8% |
Brazil | 2.4% | 2.2% |
South Africa | 0.7% | 1.1% |
Russia | 1.4% | 1.2% |
The report warns that trade growth will remain weak, projected at just 1.8% in 2025, before gradually picking up. This marks a significant drop from the 3.4% expected in 2024 and is well below the 4.6% average of the pre-pandemic decade. Tariff hikes and rising policy uncertainty are contributing to the trade slowdown.
Inflation, meanwhile, is expected to remain elevated. On a GDP-weighted basis, global inflation is forecasted to average 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026. While emerging economies may see marginal relief due to softening demand, advanced economies could face stronger price pressures driven by protectionist policies and supply chain realignment.
The World Bank suggests that developing economies focus on diversifying trade partnerships and deepening regional integration to mitigate the effects of external shocks. The report also emphasises fiscal prudence, better resource mobilisation, and prioritisation of social spending. Strengthening labour markets and improving business conditions remain key to sustaining medium-term growth.
In conclusion, while global economic headwinds are intensifying, India’s relatively robust domestic framework keeps its growth trajectory stable. The challenge lies in navigating external volatility while maintaining internal reform momentum.
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Source: CNBCTV18
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