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How is the 2026 Union Budget Likely to Impact the Stock Market?

Summary

Budget 2026 may set the tone for where money is put, which sectors get support, and how firmly fiscal discipline is held. Investors watch infrastructure, manufacturing, energy, and rural development because these choices affect demand and earnings cycles. Tax or consumption tweaks can shift momentum quickly. In the end, markets weigh the Budget against economic needs and long-run growth priorities, not just the headline numbers.

Source: Bajaj Broking Research Report

The 2026 Union Budget is expected to help set market trends by aligning growth strategies with fiscal responsibility. Investors usually look for clues in sectors such as infrastructure, manufacturing, energy, agriculture, and social services, which tend to have a bearing on earnings visibility and investment flows.

Tax structure modifications, consumption-related policies, or agri-related policies could help set short-term trends for consumption and retail-oriented stocks.

In the overall market, attention tends to move from announcements to implementation quality, particularly in the capex, renewable energy, logistics, and healthcare sectors. 

Derivative markets around the time of the event can cause temporary volatility, but clear support and resistance levels tend to help determine market trends in the short term.

What Can We Expect to Happen in the Stock Market on Budget Day?

Budget Day trading may begin with two-way action as headlines begin hitting the tape. Markets may witness steep price movements as investors separate overall trends from details, especially on taxes, allocations, and timelines.

As markets stabilise, group actions may emerge more clearly. Stocks associated with capex stories  — such as roads, railways, defense, and manufacturing  — may continue trading, whereas consumption and rural-focused stocks may react to demand and welfare trends.

The derivatives market may witness sharp intraday movements based on positioning. Indices are known to respect key support and resistance levels and may move towards widely tracked options levels. Temporary corrections may be associated with unwinding of positions rather than a change in trend.

By the end of the day, markets may stabilise as markets begin to recalibrate their expectations. Markets have a preference for clarity and feasible timelines, whereas proposals that appear ambiguous may continue to keep markets volatile for a couple of days.

Key Budget 2026 Points for Share Markets

• Fiscal Policy

The Budget may maintain its emphasis on fiscal prudence and supporting home demand. The recent change in GST and past support for income tax set the stage, while trade tensions and uncertainty around the world affect what the market expects. 

• Sector Priorities

Infrastructure could be the most important thing in 2026, with a focus on roads, railways, defence upgrades, and logistics. Support for rural areas through welfare and fertiliser subsidies, as well as steps for renewable energy, storage, healthcare, and housing, could change how people feel about the sector.

• Market Behaviour

Budget Day can be choppy as indices digest proposals. Options data often clusters around key strikes, and traders watch those levels. With Nifty near 25,000 support and Bank Nifty above 58,500, swings may stay quick.

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Published Date : 29 Jan 2026

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