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By Dalal Street Investment Journal (DSIJ)
Indian IT stocks have fallen sharply, with all Nifty IT constituents trading below their 200-DMA. AI disruption fears, global tech weakness, and reduced US rate-cut expectations have intensified selling pressure, raising concerns over revenue models and the sector’s near-term growth outlook.
Source: Dalal Street Investment Journal
It’s Friday the 13th, a date many in the West link with bad luck, and IT stocks are living up to that fear. The pressure is not just confined to Indian IT Stocks. Tech stocks have been weak globally, and Indian IT has been dragged down with them.
Over the past week, IT stocks have clearly been in a spot of bother. On a week to date basis, the Nifty IT index, which tracks the performance of listed Indian IT companies, is down about 11.5%. February has been even harsher. So far this month, the index is lower by a staggering 17%, marking the most brutal February sell-off the Nifty IT index has seen to date. Historically, the index has recorded a double digit decline in February only once before, in 2025, when it ended the month down 12.50%.
Against that backdrop, it is only natural to ask: what is driving such a sharp fall in IT stocks?
Here are some of the key reasons behind the sharp fall in IT stocks
The biggest overhang is the market’s growing unease around how quickly generative AI could reshape the economics of IT services. The immediate trigger for the latest bout of risk aversion came after AI developer Anthropic launched plug-ins for its Claude Cowork agent aimed at automating tasks across legal, sales, marketing and data analysis. That development reignited fears of an AI-led disruption in data and professional services, triggering a sell-off in software stocks globally and amplifying concerns that labour-heavy outsourcing models could face pricing pressure. India’s IT services sector, given its scale and client mix, is among the most exposed to this narrative.
More importantly, investors are now pricing in a structural risk: if GenAI lifts productivity sharply, it could reduce billable effort in traditional work such as application maintenance, testing, and support, before companies are able to meaningfully monetise AI-led services. That mismatch between near-term disruption and slower revenue replacement has been at the heart of the de-rating, particularly in large-cap IT names.
Adding to the pressure is the broader global tech reset. Indian IT is not falling in isolation. When global software and technology stocks correct, risk appetite contracts and flows tend to move out of correlated segments, including the Nifty IT pack. In that sense, part of the fall is also a function of global positioning and sentiment.
Finally, the macro backdrop has not helped. A strong US employment report has lowered expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. That does not bode well for Indian IT because a higher-for-longer rate environment typically keeps US corporate technology budgets tight, delays discretionary spending decisions, and weighs on deal momentum and margin expectations for export-led IT services firms.
The slide has been sharp enough to push every Nifty IT constituent below its key long-term moving average, the 200-DMA. This is an important technical development, as it signals that weakness is not stock-specific but sector-wide, with investors cutting exposure across the board amid AI-related anxiety and a risk-off global tape. TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech, Coforge, Mphasis, OFSS, Tech Mahindra, Wipro and LTIM are trading below their key long-term moving average i.e. 200-DMA.
Stock Name | % Fall in 2026 |
WIPRO | -18.96 |
COFORGE | -18.08 |
INFY | -17.84 |
TCS | -16.79 |
LTIM | -15.91 |
OFSS | -14.43 |
PERSISTENT | -13.99 |
MPHASIS | -13.08 |
HCLTECH | -11.3 |
TECHM | -5.1 |
In 2026 so far, it has been a very tough time for Indian IT stocks, with the sell-off turning broad-based across both large caps and mid-tier names. Wipro is down 18.96%, Coforge has slipped 18.08%, and Infosys is lower by 17.84%. Bellwether TCS has declined 16.79%, and its market capitalisation has slipped below the ₹10 lakh crore mark, underlining how meaningful the sentiment shift has been in the largest name in the sector. The weakness has extended to LTIMindtree (15.91%), OFSS (14.43%), Persistent (13.99%) and Mphasis (13.08%). HCLTech is down 11.3%, while Tech Mahindra has been relatively less hit but is still lower by 5.1% over the same period.
The deeper debate in IT is no longer just about quarterly demand; it is about the shape of the next cycle. Investors are trying to judge whether generative AI is simply another transition, like Y2K or cloud, or whether it changes the economics of services more fundamentally. One concern is that the sector is entering this shift as an incumbent, not a disruptor, while AI’s scope is broader, spanning coding, consulting, workflows and decision making. Yet the near-term revenue pool from AI-led work may still be too small to offset pricing pressure in traditional services.
The counter view is equally important. Enterprise platforms and mission-critical workflows are not replaced overnight, and the immediate impact of AI may show up more in productivity than in displacement. That, however, is a double-edged outcome. Higher productivity can support margins and delivery, but it can also compress billing intensity and weaken pricing power if clients demand a share of the efficiency gains. The question the market is wrestling with is straightforward: does AI reduce revenue per unit of work faster than it creates new work, or does it ultimately reset the growth curve without breaking it? For now, uncertainty on that front continues to hang over the IT space.
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