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Market Outlook: Nifty at All-Time High with Positive Near-Term Structure

Synopsis:


Indian equity markets have entered January 2026 on a firm footing, with benchmark indices trading near record highs. Nifty has decisively crossed its previous swing high and its five-week consolidation range of 26,300–25,700, confirming the continuation of the prevailing bullish trend. Bank Nifty has shown clear relative outperformance, supported by sustained strength in PSU banks and selective participation from private banks.


Source: Bajaj Broking Research Report

Bajaj Broking Research Desk notes that Nifty has strengthened its overall technical structure by decisively crossing its previous swing high. The index formed a strong bullish candle on the weekly chart, pushing prices to a fresh all-time high of 26,340. This move reflects sustained buying interest and confirms that the broader trend remains positive.

The index continues to trade well above its key moving averages, which reinforces the strength of the ongoing uptrend. The breakout above the recent five-week consolidation range of 26,300–25,700 indicates renewed momentum and opens the path for further upside, with higher levels coming into focus in the short term.

Nifty: Key Technical Levels and Trend Structure

Parameter

Level

Recent High

26,340

Immediate Support

26,000

Major Support

25,700

Breakout Range

26,300 – 25,700

Short-Term Reference Zone

26,800 – 26,900

As long as Nifty sustains above 26,000, the near- to short-term structure remains positive. Holding above 25,700 keeps the broader bullish trend intact, while the range breakout projection places 26,800–26,900 as the next critical resistance zone.

Bank Nifty: Continued Relative Outperformance

Bank Nifty has been displaying clear relative strength compared to the broader market. Over the past few sessions, the index scaled fresh record highs of 60,203.75, supported primarily by sustained buying in PSU banks and meaningful participation from select private banks.

On the weekly chart, Bank Nifty formed a bullish marubozu candle, indicating strong buying interest throughout the session with limited selling pressure. The index continues to trade well above its key moving averages and has also surpassed its earlier swing high.

The breakout above the last five-week consolidation range of 60,100–58,800 highlights strength and signals open upside potential.

Bank Nifty Key Levels

Parameter

Level

Breakout Area

58,500

Immediate Support

59,500

Major Support

59,000

Upside Levels

60,700 / 61,400

The structure remains supportive as long as Bank Nifty holds above the breakout zone, with the range breakout projection pointing toward 61,400 from a short-term perspective.

Sectors in Focus

Nifty Auto: Rounding Breakout at All-Time Highs

The auto sector has witnessed a rounding breakout pattern and has moved to all-time highs. This type of structure typically reflects steady accumulation over time and indicates strong sector participation within the broader market uptrend.

Nifty FMCG: Approaching Major Support Levels

The FMCG sector has been under pressure and is currently approaching important support zones. These levels are technically significant, as price behaviour around these areas may determine whether the sector stabilises or continues to remain under pressure.

Nifty PSU Bank: Bullish Continuation Pattern

The PSU Bank index has shown a bullish flag breakout, following an earlier inverse head-and-shoulders breakout. This sequence of patterns highlights sustained strength and continuation of the prevailing uptrend within PSU banking stocks.

Derivatives View: Option Chain Signals

Nifty Weekly and Monthly Option Chain

Both weekly and monthly option chain data for Nifty show call unwinding, which is generally interpreted as a bullish signal. Call unwinding suggests that bearish positions are being closed, indicating rising confidence in higher index levels.

Bank Nifty Option Chain

Bank Nifty option data also shows call unwinding at in-the-money strikes, reinforcing the price action seen on the charts and supporting the bullish undertone.

Bank Nifty Rollover Analysis: January Series

Rollover data provides insight into how traders are positioning themselves for the new series.

Parameter

Value

Closing Price

59,586.20

Monthly Change

+0.41%

Rollover Percentage

77.46%

3-Month Avg Rollover

76.70%

Rollover Cost

0.72%

3-Month Avg Cost

0.62%

Futures Open Interest

12.47 lakh shares

The higher rollover percentage, along with elevated rollover costs, suggests aggressive carry-forward of positions, reflecting improving confidence. Despite December’s range-bound price action, the rollover data points to cleaner positioning and a higher probability of a directional move once key levels are breached.

CY 2025 Snapshot

The year began with heightened global trade tensions. In January, the US imposed tariffs on Chinese industrial, electric vehicle, and green-technology imports, triggering a broader tariff escalation. This was followed in February by the Union Budget, which announced income tax relief aimed at boosting consumption. During the same month, the RBI cut interest rates by 25 basis points, providing policy support to the economy.

In March, geopolitical concerns came into focus as Indo-Pak tensions escalated, while gold crossed $3,000. April saw another 25 bps rate cut by the RBI, alongside a 90-day pause in the US tariff war. China also suspended exports of rare-earth metals and magnets during this period.

Market sentiment improved in May following the announcement of Operation Sindoor and the Indo-Pak ceasefire, with the USDINR strengthening to 83.76, its lowest level of 2025. In June, IPO fundraising crossed ₹2 lakh crore, and the RBI delivered a larger 50 bps rate cut, adding further liquidity support.

Global markets remained strong in July, with Japan hitting a 35-year high after the announcement of a US–Japan trade framework. In August, India reported GDP growth of around 7.8%, while the Dow Jones reached an all-time high. During the same month, GST overhaul measures supported consumption, even as the US imposed an additional 25% tariff on Russian oil purchases.

In September, the US Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates after a 26-month pause, marking a key shift in global monetary policy. October saw silver touch an all-time high for the first time in 45 years, reflecting strength in precious metals.

Market momentum continued in November, with Nifty hitting an all-time high, supported by strong domestic institutional inflows, GST rebates, and a historic BJP victory in the Bihar elections. The year ended with heightened currency and commodity movements in December, as USDINR moved to 91, gold and silver hit fresh all-time highs, crude oil hovered near a 52-week low, and the RBI delivered another 25 bps rate cut.

Global, Sectoral and Commodity Performance (YTD)

Global Indices Returns

  • Nifty 50: 10.3%

  • Dow Jones: 13.6%

  • Nasdaq: 21.2%

  • S&P 500: 17.2%

  • Hang Seng: 27.6%

  • Nikkei 225: 26.1%

Sectoral Performance – India

  • Nifty Metal: 29.32%

  • Nifty Auto: 22.88%

  • Nifty Bank: 17.05%

  • Nifty Infrastructure: 13.46%

  • Nifty IT: -12.54%

  • Nifty Realty: -16.30%

  • Nifty Media: -20.82%

Commodities & Macro Indicators

  • Gold: 64.72%

  • Silver: 147.90%

  • Brent Crude: -17.93%

  • Copper: 43.69%

  • Dollar Index: -9.39%

  • USDINR: 5.04%

Summary

Indian equity markets begin 2026 with a firm technical foundation. Nifty’s breakout above its consolidation range, continued outperformance in Bank Nifty, supportive sectoral participation, positive option-chain signals, and healthy rollover data collectively reinforce a constructive near-term outlook. While sectoral rotation continues, the broader market structure remains positive as long as key support levels are respected.

Published Date : 05 Jan 2026

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