Bajaj Broking Research Desk's High Conviction MTF Pick: Jayaswal Neco Industries Targets 18% Upside

Synopsis:


Jayaswal Neco Industries Ltd. has stabilised its operations and balance sheet through asset monetisation, refinancing, and capacity ramp-ups. The company operates two captive iron ore mines in Chhattisgarh with a combined operational capacity of 3 MTPA, alongside a 1.5 MTPA pellet plant. The report outlines a target price of ₹124, based on 5x EV/EBITDA on FY28E earnings, with an 18% upside from the current market price of ₹105.

Bajaj Broking Research Desk has identified Jayaswal Neco Industries Ltd. (JNIL) as a high conviction MTF pick. The company is the flagship entity of the NECO Group of Industries and has stabilised its operations and balance sheet through asset monetisation, refinancing, and capacity ramp-ups. JNIL operates as a cost-efficient steel producer with captive mines, pelletisation, power generation, and downstream steel capacity.

JNIL has established an operational presence across two captive iron ore mines in Chhattisgarh — Metabodeli, with a mining capacity of 1 MTPA valid until 2052, and Chotedongar, with production capacity extending up to 6 MTPA and mine validity until 2055. The company is currently operating at a combined iron ore mining capacity of 3 MTPA against an approved operational capacity of 4 MTPA, while an additional 3 MTPA expansion remains under approval.

Trade Setup

Parameter

Level

CMP

₹105

Target Price

₹124

Upside

18%

Market Cap

₹103.99 bn

High / Low

₹117 / ₹34.8

Financial Summary

Particulars

FY26E

FY27E

FY28E

Revenue (Rs Mn)

71,318

1,29,250

1,49,500

EBITDA (Rs Mn)

13,275

20,680

25,415

PAT (Rs Mn)

4,631

11,452

15,551

EPS

4.8

11.8

16.0

EBITDA Margin

18.6%

16.0%

17.0%

PAT Margin

6.5%

8.9%

10.4%

P/E

14.3

5.8

4.3

ROE

16.3%

27.5%

27.2%

ROCE

25.0%

33.5%

36.4%

Investment Rationale

Iron Ore Mining Operations – Strong Captive Resource Advantage

JNIL has established operational presence across two captive iron ore mines in Chhattisgarh — Metabodeli, with a mining capacity of 1 MTPA valid until 2052, and Chotedongar, with production capacity extending up to 6 MTPA and mine validity until 2055. Currently, the company is operating at a combined iron ore mining capacity of 3 MTPA against an approved operational capacity of 4 MTPA, while an additional 3 MTPA expansion remains under approval.

Pelletisation and Beneficiation – EBITDA Accretive Expansion

JNIL currently operates a 1.5 MTPA pellet plant. The company has announced plans to expand this capacity with another 1.5 MTPA with a capex of ₹7,200 mn, contingent on funding and cash flows over the next two years. Given the pellet margins of ₹1,000–1,500 per ton for low-cost miners, this expansion is expected to generate substantial incremental EBITDA.

Jayaswal Neco Industr Ltd

Trade

106.231.50 (1.43 %)

Updated - 14 May 2026
107.68day high
DAY HIGH
103.32day low
DAY LOW
3324912
VOLUME (BSE)

Strengthening the Balance Sheet through Debt Refinancing

As of March 31, 2025, the company's debt stands at approximately ₹21,179 mn. In FY 2025-26, the company achieved financial closure for debt refinance through issuance of lower-rate NCDs and internal accruals, with liquidity further augmented by working capital. Furthermore, 100% of the promoter's shareholding (61.2% as on 31 December 2025) will be pledged with new lenders, with 50% to be released post 50% of the repayment, enhancing financial flexibility.

Valuation

The target price of ₹124 is arrived at by applying a 5x EV/EBITDA multiple on FY28E earnings. Key monitorables include the ramp-up of iron ore mining capacity, execution of the pellet plant expansion, progress on debt refinancing, and timely realisation of operating leverage benefits.

Published Date : 14 May 2026

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Content Partner - Dalal Street Investment Journal Wealth Advisory Private Limited



This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market investments are subject to risks. DSIJ Wealth Advisory Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Reg. No: INH000006396) and Investment Adviser (Reg. No: INA000001142). Please consult your financial adviser before investing. 

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