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The commodities market today features how Crude oil futures dropped over 4% as the geopolitical rally paused, with Brent December contract at $77.18 per barrel. Gold prices also declined, falling 1.1% to $2,614.49 per ounce, as US rate cut expectations diminished.
1. Torrent Power gets 2 LoA For Supply Of 2,000 MW energy storage capacity from Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company Limited (MSEDCL). Annual revenue from the projects is at ₹1,680 crore.
2. IRBInfra: September toll collections up 19.2% at ₹501.8 cr vs ₹421 cr (YoY).
3. Infosys expands four-year collaboration with Old National Bank to accelerate the Bank’s Operational and Technological Transformation. Old National Bank is the sixth-largest commercial bank headquartered in the Midwest.
4. IRFC to finance up to ₹700 cr under finance lease for 20 BOBR rakes procured under the General-Purpose Wagon Investment Scheme Of the Ministry of Railways (GPWIS ) to NTPC.
5. DrReddy's unit achieves trial breakthrough: Positive results for blood cancer treatment.
6. FIIs net sell ₹5,729.60 crore while DIIs net buy ₹7,000.68 crore in equities yesterday.
US Share Market News
Performance Overview:
The S&P 500 closed sharply higher, led by Nvidia as investors swooped on tech just as the third-quarter earning season got underway.
NVIDIA Corporation led the broader tech sector higher on optimism about the chip demand outlook.
Sector-Specific Movements:
The S&P 500 rose 1% to 5,751.13 points on Tuesday, while the NASDAQ Composite surged 1.4% to 18,182.34 points, recouping most of Monday’s losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% to 42,080.37 points.
There is little in the way of economic data due Tuesday to influence interest rate expectations, although the minutes of the September meeting are due on Wednesday and the September consumer price index on Thursday, with investors watching for any signs of inflation remaining sticky.
Economic Indicators:
Traders are currently pricing in an 88.9% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in November, and a 19.1% chance the central bank will not cut rates at all, CME Fedwatch showed.
Other Asset Classes
Treasury Yields:
U.S. Treasury yields shifted lower Tuesday, reversing course after the rate on the 10-year note hit its highest level in more than two months. The 10-year Treasury yield was less than a basis point lower at 4.018%.
Currency:
The dollar held steady near seven-week highs against major currencies on Tuesday as investors assessed the outlook for further U.S. rate cuts, with concerns about the conflict in the Middle East and China's economy lending support. The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.07% at 102.23.
Commodities:
Crude oil futures fell more than 4% on Tuesday as the rally spurred by heightened geopolitical risk paused while the market waited for Israel to strike back against Iran.
Brent December contract: $77.18 per barrel, down 4.63%.
Gold prices were lower as expectations for a bigger rate cut by the US were lower. While markets awaited minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting for fresh signals. Spot gold fell 1.1% to $2,614.49 per ounce.
Asian Markets
General Trends:
Asia-Pacific markets rebounded on Wednesday following a broad decline in the previous session and as Wall Street rallied.
Specific Index Performance:
New Zealand central bank slashes rates by 50 basis points in second straight rate cut
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1%, while the broad-based Topix gained 0.5%. South Korea’s markets are closed for a public holiday.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index opened higher pointing to a rebound after the index saw its worst day in 16 years, falling 9.41% and closing at 20,926.79.
India Market Outlook
GIFT Nifty Projection:
Gift Nifty suggests a flat to positive note amid strong global cues. Nifty spot is likely to consolidate in the range of 25250-24800.
Market in Previous Session:
Benchmark indices after an initial sharp reaction at the opening, experienced a steady upward trend throughout the day. The oversold conditions played a key role in this pullback ahead of the upcoming RBI policy meeting outcome.
At close, the Sensex was up 584 points or 0.72% at 81,634.81, and the Nifty was up 217 points or 0.88% at 25,013.20.
Bank Nifty also snapped its six-session decline and closed the session higher by 1.07% at 51021 levels.
All sectors, except for Metals, ended in positive territory, with Media and Auto leading the gains.
Mid and Small-cap stocks outperformed the Frontline Index, rising over 2% each.
Nifty Short-Term Outlook:
Index broke its streak of bearish candles, forming a strong Bullish inside bar candle indicating a pause of the bearish trend.
Volatility is expected to remain high in the upcoming trading session on account of the RBI monetary policy outcome on 9th Oct.
Nifty needs to hold above the support area of 24700-24800 and begin forming higher highs and higher lows on a sustained basis for a sizable pullback to materialize. Failure to do so will open a downside towards 24350.
Buying demand in Tuesday’s session emerged from the lows of September 2024. Going ahead, a follow-through strength above Monday’s high (25143) will open further pullback towards 25500-25700 levels in the coming sessions being the confluence of last Thursday gap down area and 61.8% retracement of the entire decline (26277-24695).
Intraday Levels:
Nifty: Intraday resistance is at 25,140 followed by 25,280 levels. Conversely, downside support is located at 24,880, followed by 24,750.
Bank Nifty: Intraday resistance is positioned at 51,350, followed by 51,780, while downside support is found at 50,740, followed by 50,460.
Derivative Market Analysis
Nifty:
The highest call OI is positioned at 25500 followed by the 25000 level, whereas the highest put OI is positioned at 25000 followed by the 24500 level.
Huge put OI addition was seen at strikes between 24500 and 25000 indicating stiff support at lower levels. Straddle formation at 25000 will be a crucial level to watch for.
According to option chain analysis, a broader range for Nifty is 25000 and 25500.
The Nifty put-call ratio increased by 0.07 and is now positioned at 0.74.
Bank Nifty:
The highest call OI is positioned at 53000 followed by the 52000 level, whereas the highest put OI is positioned at 50000 followed by the 51000 level.
Huge call and put OI addition was seen at 51000 level indicating a straddle formation which will be a crucial level to watch for. Put writers are active below 51000 making it an important support level.
According to option chain analysis, the broader range for Bank Nifty is 51000 and 52000.
The Nifty put-call ratio increased by 0.14 and is now positioned at 0.70.
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