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The RBI is set to maintain the policy rate at 6.50% in October 2024, focusing on inflation stability and economic growth. A rate cut may be on the horizon in December, depending on inflation trends.
As the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) prepares for its October 2024 monetary policy announcement, the likelihood of a rate cut appears minimal. For the tenth consecutive time, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the policy repo rate at 6.50%. The RBI has adopted a cautious stance due to fluctuating food prices and broader inflationary trends.
While core inflation remains stable at around 4%, concerns over food price volatility, driven by unseasonal rainfall and crop damage, are expected to influence the committee’s decision. The RBI seeks more clarity on inflation trends before moving towards monetary easing.
Looking ahead, a potential rate cut may be considered during the December policy meeting, provided inflation moderates and new crop arrivals bring down high vegetable prices. The Indian economy is projected to grow at a robust 7.3-7.4% in FY25, making the current macroeconomic environment favourable for growth.
Liquidity management remains a priority but reducing the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at this stage would send an overly dovish signal. Thus, the RBI is likely to continue fine-tuning liquidity operations rather than make drastic changes.
This policy meeting will remain focused on inflation control, food price stabilization, and economic growth, with a rate cut possibly being deferred until later in the year.
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