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RBI Monetary Policy 2025: Key Insights

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As we approach the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) first bi-monthly monetary policy meeting for the fiscal year 2025-26, scheduled from April 7 to 9, 2025, market participants are keenly watching for a possible shift in interest rates. Following the 25 bps repo rate cut in February 2025, which brought the rate down to 6.25%, expectations are mixed on whether further easing is on the cards.

With inflation cooling to 4.31% in January 2025, the RBI is now focusing on ensuring price stability while sustaining economic growth. The global economic climate, rising crude oil prices, and India’s fiscal policies will play a key role in shaping the outcome of this policy review. Investors and businesses await the central bank’s stance on liquidity and lending conditions.

RBI’s Stance on Interest Rates:

Despite India's robust GDP growth forecast of nearly 8 percent, experts predict the RBI might maintain the status quo on the main interest rate in the upcoming policy announcement. This cautious approach, prioritizing inflation targeting towards the 4 percent goal, suggests a shift in focus from stimulating growth to stabilizing prices. The consistent inflation range around 5 percent, coupled with potential food inflation shocks, reinforces the likelihood of maintaining the current rate.

Global Cues and Domestic Growth:

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is also expected to weigh in on the global economic scenario, especially considering the strategies adopted by central banks in major economies like the US and UK. With these countries taking a cautious route towards rate adjustments, the RBI's decisions are likely to echo a similar sentiment.

Economic Growth and Inflation Dynamics:

The Indian economy has exhibited impressive resilience, with the National Statistical Office (NSO) revising GDP growth for the first two quarters of FY 2023-24 to 8.2 and 8.1 percent respectively. This growth trajectory, surpassing initial estimates, has somewhat alleviated the RBI’s growth concerns, allowing for a stronger focus on inflation control.

Forecast and Future Policy Direction:

Given the current economic indicators and global trends, a change in the RBI's policy stance is unlikely before the August 2024 MPC review. Factors such as the monsoon's performance, sustained growth momentum, and the US Federal Reserve's rate decisions will play a crucial role in shaping future policies. Consequently, any potential rate cuts are most likely to occur in the October 2024 meeting, and even then, they are expected to be modest, reflecting a cautious and gradual approach to monetary easing.

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