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Investors and traders in the stock market are constantly looking for new ways to trade or master skills in already-known trading techniques. Understanding how the Indian stock market works is the key to success in trading and investing. If you wish to understand the stock market, something you should know how to perform is trend analysis. This is largely based on trends that occur in the stock market. It’s worth diving deeper into trend analysis.
People have heard the term ‘market trend’ being used with reference to the stock market. A trend is essentially the direction of movement of the price of a stock. Share or stock prices generally move upwards or downwards according to market sentiments that may be bearish or bullish. Normally, prices do not move in a straight line as they tend to be volatile in the short run. If investors want to undertake trend analysis to determine the movement of prices of stocks, they must decide on a particular timeframe in which to consider the movements of prices that may follow a trend.
Market trends are easy to define when a long-term view is taken. With a longer timeframe considered, it is possible to view clear patterns of stock prices and their trends, either going up or down. Investors believe that trend analysis is helpful, especially when they study past trends to help them with future trading, because moving in the same line as trends turn out to be more profitable than moving against trends.
Trend analysis can be described as a process that lets investors estimate future stock price movements by analysing current market trends. It could also be the study of stock trends in the past to predict future trends. In simple terms, trend analysis involves research into historical stock data to predict the long-term movements in a stock’s price. Investors can estimate and evaluate the likelihood of positive or negative prospects for a sector in the future.
Through trend analysis, analysts and investors sift through large amounts of data and find trends in a stock’s prices, say, in the past five years. If they find that a particular stock has a trend that is moving in the upward direction, in general, they may bet on the stock doing well in the current market and in future months. This also informs investors about how well a particular business is doing and whether it is on the path to expansion.
Trend analysis lets investors know about movements in the price of a stock, but this is not the only kind of research they should do to gain information about the future performance of a stock. However, trend analysis serves as an effective tool to corroborate information with other kinds of analysis to know about a stock’s potential.
If you wish to know how to conduct trend analysis, there are common strategies and methods used by investors. These may help you to get a head start on how to execute trend analysis for your trading:
Traders who undertake technical analysis will know about moving averages. In this strategy of trend analysis, traders will calculate the average price of a stock over a period. This aids in understanding the direction of prices of stocks. It also helps in finding out resistance and support levels. This method of trend analysis is done according to stock prices that have been moving in a certain way in the past. The longer the period when the moving average is considered, the greater will be the lag. Usually, traders will use data from 50-day moving averages to 200-day moving averages to find average stock prices and use these as signals for trading.
If you want to determine whether a stock’s price is weak or strong, you may use a momentum indicator. The momentum of a stock means the rate at which a stock’s price goes up or down. For instance, if a stock’s price is moving up and down with great momentum, traders will enter trades with a long position.
Trend analysis is a component of technical analysis that involves studying trendlines and charts. Trendlines represent a series of curves and lines that tell traders about price patterns. On stock price charts, you can easily identify support and resistance lines and conduct trades accordingly. For example, if you observe that the shares, of say, a company, Tata Motors, are trending higher, you may place a stop-loss order at the support or below-support area.
Trend analysis takes practice and training and you may have to study and research charts for a while before you gain some expertise. However, this is not difficult if you focus on the movement of prices and their momentum. Trend analysis can be an effective tool in trading.
Sources:
Understanding Trend Analysis and Trend Trading Strategies (investopedia.com)
Disclaimer: Investments in the securities market are subject to market risk, read all related documents carefully before investing.
This content is for educational purposes only. Securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory.
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