BAJAJ BROKING
NIFTY may head towards 26,200 in July 2025, driven by strong breadth, institutional support, and historical recovery trends. Bajaj Broking's expert outlook suggests buying on dips.
Research-backed outlook by the Bajaj Broking Research Desk
Overview
The NIFTY index has shown remarkable resilience amid global macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. Based on technical and historical trend analysis, the NIFTY prediction for July indicates a continued upward movement, with the index expected to reach the 26,200 mark. This view is supported by strong rollover data, improving market breadth, and sustained institutional participation.
As per Bajaj Broking’s July outlook, the NIFTY is likely to trade with a positive bias. Having already delivered a 17% rebound from April lows, the index appears poised to move towards its all-time high of 26,000–26,200.
Historical analysis of past corrections and recoveries in the Indian equity markets provides further confidence in a constructive NIFTY prediction for July.
Market Correction vs Recovery – Historical Perspective:
Year | Correction (%) | 6M Recovery (%) | 12M Recovery (%) |
2004 | 35.86 | 45.41 | 54.06 |
2008 | 64.56 | 54.03 | 115.15 |
2020 | 39.58 | 48.50 | 93.71 |
2025 | 17.25 | 17.00 (till June) | TBD |
Excluding extreme cases like the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, the average recovery over six and twelve months stands at +24.54% and +37.57%, respectively. This suggests there is still meaningful upside left in the current cycle.
A key technical indicator—the percentage of NIFTY 500 stocks trading above their 200-day exponential moving average—has surged from below 10% in March 2025 to approximately 59% in June.
This sharp improvement in market breadth signals:
Such breadth expansions have historically preceded durable bull market phases.
From a derivatives perspective, the current setup reinforces a cautiously bullish stance:
The data reflects confidence among bulls but also highlights a wait-and-watch approach amid macro uncertainty.
Bank Nifty continues to show strength after a multi-month rally, though with a slightly more cautious sentiment:
This indicates a potential pause or base formation in Bank Nifty that could later support broader market momentum.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net buyers for the past four months, a key signal of external confidence in the Indian stock market today. Combined with reduced volatility and steady open interest buildup, the sentiment appears strongly tilted in favor of the bulls.
The NIFTY prediction for July suggests a continued uptrend, underpinned by strong technical setups, supportive historical data, and broad-based market participation. Investors are advised to:
While short-term consolidation may occur, the overall structure remains robust for the share market in the months ahead.
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