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Nifty has bounced back with resilience after a two-month dip, forming a higher high on the monthly chart. A bullish EMA crossover, supportive seasonality, early FII short covering, and strong option activity suggest that the market structure remains intact. The index could retest 26,277 and eye 26,800–27,000 in the quarters ahead, provided momentum sustains.
Source: Bajaj Broking Research Desk | Published on September 22, 2025
According to Bajaj Broking’s Research Desk, Nifty has regained strength after a two-month corrective phase, posting a higher high on the monthly chart for the first time in three months. This pattern indicates that the broader uptrend is still intact, even as global uncertainties remain in play.
The market has held critical support zones with resilience. The stronger base lies around 24,400–24,300, while a softer cushion exists near 24,800–24,700. These levels matter because they provide a floor if volatility re-emerges. On the higher side, Nifty looks poised to retest the earlier peak of 26,277. Should momentum be sustained beyond that, the chart opens up a path toward 26,800–27,000 over the coming quarters.
Despite tariff pressures and geopolitical risks, the index has treated its dip as consolidation rather than weakness. That distinction is important, as it signals confidence that the rally remains supported by structure rather than speculation.
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A significant technical signal emerged on 12 September 2025, when the 20-day Exponential Moving Average crossed above the 50-day EMA. This crossover is widely regarded as a constructive sign of strengthening momentum.
Historical data reinforces its importance. Over the past decade, this crossover has appeared approximately a dozen times. Positive market outcomes followed each instance. The average return after the signal was close to 20%, with the weakest case still producing about 3%. The median result stood around 12%.
Equally important, downside risk after these events has been modest. The average drawdown was just over 2%, with a maximum of 4%. That makes the current crossover not just technically notable but statistically reliable when viewed against past cycles.
With the 20-day EMA still trending above the 50-day EMA, the configuration remains valid. Unless that alignment breaks down, the medium-term bias for the index continues to favour strength.
Date | Nifty | Date (High Post Crossover) | High Post Crossover | Gain | Days Taken |
12-Sep-25 | 25,114 | - | - | - | - |
17-Apr-25 | 23,851.65 | 30-Jun-25 | 25,669.35 | 8% | 74 |
17-Nov-23 | 19,731.8 | 27-Sep-24 | 26,277.35 | 33% | 315 |
25-Apr-23 | 17,769.25 | 15-Sep-23 | 20,222.45 | 14% | 143 |
25-Jul-22 | 16,631 | 14-Dec-22 | 18,696.1 | 12% | 142 |
01-Apr-22 | 17,670.45 | 04-Apr-22 | 18,114.65 | 3% | 3 |
07-Jan-22 | 17,812.7 | 18-Jan-22 | 18,350.95 | 3% | 11 |
08-Jun-20 | 10,167.45 | 19-Oct-21 | 18,604.45 | 83% | 498 |
27-Sep-19 | 11,512.4 | 14-Jan-20 | 12,374.25 | 7% | 109 |
17-Dec-18 | 10,888.35 | 03-Jun-19 | 12,103.05 | 11% | 168 |
19-Apr-18 | 10,565.3 | 29-Aug-18 | 11,753.2 | 11% | 132 |
17-Jan-17 | 8,398 | 29-Jan-18 | 11,171.55 | 33% | 377 |
14-Mar-16 | 7,538.75 | 22-Sep-16 | 8,893.35 | 18% | 192 |
Average Gain: 19.70%
Average Days Taken: 180
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Beyond immediate technicals, historical seasonality provides additional context. Over the last twenty-five years, the final quarter of the calendar year has been positive for Indian equities nearly three-quarters of the time. The average gain works out to about 4% during this period.
This pattern is supported by several recurring drivers. Domestic consumption rises during the festive season, often supporting corporate earnings. International funds also rebalance portfolios before year-end, which tends to bring flows into Indian equities. Domestic institutions, meanwhile, adjust allocations in anticipation of the new year.
Not every year follows this pattern, but strength is more likely. Seasonality makes the case for continued resilience even stronger when combined with the ongoing technical setup. It doesn't guarantee results, but it does add another positive factor to the market.
At the start of September, FIIs were positioned heavily on the short side. On 5th September, they held about 2,08,130 short contracts in index futures, compared with only 16,715 long positions. This drove the Long-Short (L/S) ratio down to 0.08, one of the weakest levels seen in years.
Since 12th September, however, the picture has started to change:
Roughly 32,340 short contracts have been covered.
Around 3,140 new long positions have been added.
The L/S ratio has improved from 0.08 to 0.15.
This shift has coincided with a rally of more than 700 points in Nifty Futures. Although the ratio remains below the 0.30 threshold generally linked with a sustained FII-led rally, the reduction in shorts points to easing bearish pressure and the possibility of sentiment gradually turning constructive.
Derivatives positioning further strengthens this view. The October option chain shows heavy put writing at 26,000 and 26,500 strike levels, signalling confidence that the index will hold above these zones. In contrast, call open interest has increased at higher strikes, but such activity is usually defensive in nature rather than a sign of aggressive bearishness.
Taken together, the option chain suggests a clear upward bias, complementing the early signs of FII short covering.
For traders seeking structured participation in the bullish setup, a bull call spread has been outlined for the October series:
Buy 1 lot 25,600 CE (28th Oct expiry) @ ₹262.35
Sell 1 lot 26,200 CE (28th Oct expiry) @ ₹73.15
This structure creates a defined risk-reward profile:
Maximum Loss (Cost): ₹14,190
Maximum Profit (Capped): ₹30,810
Breakeven Point: 25,789
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: ~1:2
Margin Requirement: approximately ₹1,50,000
The key advantage of this approach is risk definition. It allows investors to express a bullish view while keeping downside risks capped. Such strategies highlight the importance of discipline in volatile environments, where sentiment can shift quickly.
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Bajaj Broking’s Research Desk observes that the market outlook remains constructive. The higher high on the monthly chart, the bullish EMA crossover, seasonal tailwinds, early FII adjustments, and supportive option activity collectively suggest resilience in the equity market.
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