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Indian equities are set for a consolidative start, with Nifty likely to trade between 25,200–25,800. Global markets remain cautious amid trade tensions, while investors await clarity on the US-India tariff deal for the next directional move.
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U.S. equities ended last week on a high note, even with the July 4th holiday shortening the trading schedule. Major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs for the second straight week. Small- and mid-cap stocks outperformed, with the Russell 2000 jumping 3.52% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 climbing 2.85%.
Despite solid June jobs data tempering hopes for rate cuts, investor sentiment stayed upbeat. However, all eyes are now on the possible U.S. tariff announcements, with the deadline seemingly extended to August 1.
Asian markets traded in the red on Monday, reflecting cautious global sentiment. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.26%, the Topix lost 0.18%, while South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq dropped 0.48% and 0.5%, respectively. Lingering trade tensions and uncertainty over the U.S.-India tariff situation kept investors on the sidelines.
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Gift Nifty Outlook
Gift Nifty indicates a flat start for Indian markets, with the Nifty expected to consolidate in a range of 25,250–25,600 in today’s session.
Recap of Previous Session
Indian equity markets witnessed a subdued yet positive session on July 4th. After opening weak, the benchmark indices rebounded sharply, thanks to strong buying in heavyweight counters. Nifty closed at 25,461, near the day’s high.
Sensex gained 193 points (+0.23%) to close at 83,432.89
Nifty rose 55.7 points (+0.22%) to settle at 25,461
On a weekly basis, both the Sensex and Nifty registered a marginal decline of 0.7%.
Barring auto, telecom, and metal, all sectoral indices ended in the green. Notable gains (0.4–1%) were seen in banking, pharma, oil & gas, IT, realty, and media stocks. However, broader markets underperformed, ending flat.
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With the tariff deadline approaching, markets are keenly watching developments around the anticipated US-India trade agreement. A favorable outcome could spark the next leg of the rally.
The index formed a bullish hammer-like candle on Friday, signaling buying interest near key support levels around 25,350–25,400, following four sessions of corrective decline.
A move above 25,470 (Friday’s high) could trigger a rally toward 25,600
A breakdown below 25,350 could drag the index to 25,200
Expected short-term range:
Support: 25,200–25,000
Resistance: 25,600–25,800
Dips are expected to attract buying interest, with the 20-day EMA and consolidation support around 25,200 acting as key cushions.
Intraday Levels
Nifty
Resistance: 25,530 / 25,610
Support: 25,330 / 25,250
Bank Nifty
Resistance: 57,290 / 57,550
Support: 56,730 / 56,450
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