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Bajaj Broking Research Desk’s High Conviction MTF Pick: Fortis Healthcare

Synopsis:


Bajaj Broking Research desk initiates coverage on Fortis Healthcare with a BUY rating, supported by multi-year visibility in growth, profitability, and balance sheet strengthening. With a ~ 2,000-bed expansion pipeline through FY26–FY29, improving ARPOB and occupancy, and a diagnostics business in margin recovery, Fortis is positioned for one of the strongest earnings upcycles in the healthcare space. SEBI’s approval of the IHH Healthcare open offer removes a long-standing regulatory overhang and reinforces promoter commitment, strengthening governance stability and providing greater clarity on the company’s long-term strategic direction. Fortis enters the growth cycle with conservative leverage and is expected to turn net debt-free by FY28, enhancing financial flexibility for pursuing further expansion plans.

Fortis Healthcare – Key Metrics 

Metric

Value

Exchange

NSE/BSE – FORTIS / 532843

CMP

₹925

Upside

14%

Target Price

₹1,051

Bloomberg Code

FORH:IN

52-Week High / Low

₹1,105 / ₹521

Market Cap

₹69,849 crore

Capacity Expansion – Key Growth Driver

Fortis plans to add ~900 beds in FY26, ~600 in FY27, and ~600 in FY28, predominantly via brownfield expansion across FMRI, Mohali, Amritsar, Noida, Faridabad, and Manesar. Owned operational beds rose from 4,024 in FY25 to ~6,124 by FY28, materially expanding network coverage.

The O&M portfolio will also scale meaningfully in FY26 with the onboarding of Gleneagles (700 beds) and Ekana Lucknow (550 beds), taking network beds to ~7,400+ by FY26-end. These additions are concentrated in NCR, Punjab, and Bengaluru—regions with high throughput potential and superior case-mix trends.

FORTIS HEALTHCARE LTD

Trade

922.9-5.19 (-0.55 %)

Updated - 19 November 2025
935.50day high
DAY HIGH
912.50day low
DAY LOW
3031991
VOLUME (BSE)

Operating Metrics – Sustained Improvement

ARPOB has increased from ₹49,315 in FY22 to ₹66,301 in FY25 and is projected to reach ₹71,232 by FY28, driven by deeper penetration in oncology, robotic surgeries, neuro, transplants, and other complex care categories.

Occupancy is guided at 70–71% in FY26 (vs. 69% in FY25), with potential to reach 72% by FY28 as new beds ramp up. A strategic shift toward scaling flagship hospitals to 400+ beds is expected to deliver better operating leverage and margin expansion.

Diagnostics (Agilus) – Margin Rebound Underway

Agilus has potentially bottomed out and is entering a margin expansion cycle. EBITDA margins improved from 17.3% in FY24 to 19.8% in FY25, with management guiding toward industry standards (28%) from FY26 onwards.

Growth of 10–11% annually through FY28 is supported by mix normalization, specialty-led offerings, and expansion of the 4,100-touchpoint franchise network. Diagnostics remains a critical incremental earnings lever with improving profitability visibility.

Financial Performance – Transition to Stronger Profitability

Consolidated EBITDA margins are expected to expand through FY26–FY28, aided by higher occupancies, ARPOB growth, divestment of low-margin assets, and diagnostics recovery. Hospital EBITDA expansion will be supported by operating leverage and a margin-accretive case mix.

Annual capex of ₹800–1,000 crore is fully funded through internal accruals. With robust cash generation and moderated capex beyond FY27, the company is poised to become net debt-free by FY28, improving optionality for brownfield expansion or inorganic acquisitions.

Valuation

Bajaj Broking Research desk values Fortis Healthcare on an FY28E EV/EBITDA multiple of 26x, arriving at a Target Price of ₹1,051.

The company is entering a multi-year earnings upcycle supported by:

  1. The largest bed expansion program in its history

  2. Rising ARPOB and occupancy levels

  3. Accelerating O&M-led network scaling without incremental capital

  4. Diagnostics margin recovery toward industry standards (~28%)

  5. Removal of regulatory overhang after SEBI’s approval of the IHH open offer

  6. A clear pathway to becoming net debt free by FY28

Key Financials (FY26E–FY28E)

Particulars

FY26E

FY27E

FY28E

Revenue (mn)

95,329

1,12,987

1,27,472

EBITDA (mn)

21,210

25,885

30,456

PAT (mn)

11,265

15,064

18,276

EPS

14.9

20.0

24.2

EBITDA Margin (%)

22.2

22.9

23.9

PAT Margin (%)

11.8

13.3

14.3

EV/EBITDA (x)

34.1

27.6

23.1

P/E (x)

62.3

46.6

38.4

Debt/Equity

0.2

0.1

0.0

Shareholding Pattern

Category

Q2 FY26

Q1 FY26

Q4 FY25

Promoter

31.17%

31.17%

31.17%

FII

27.90%

27.18%

27.40%

DII

29.14%

29.49%

29.46%

Others

11.79%

11.87%

11.98%

Promoter Pledge: 4.78%

Q2 FY26 – Management Call Highlights

Operational Performance

  • Q2 FY26 Revenue: ₹2,331 crore (17.3% YoY)

  • Q2 FY26 Operating EBITDA: ₹556 crore (28% YoY), margin 23.9%

  • H1 FY26 Revenue: ₹4,498 crore (16.9% YoY)

  • H1 FY26 Operating EBITDA: ₹1,047 crore, margin 23.3%

Hospital Business

  • Revenue up 19.3% to ₹1,974 crore

  • EBITDA margin improved 150 bps to 22.9%

  • Occupancy: 71% (vs. 69% in Q1)

  • ARPOB grew 5.8% to ₹2.51 crore per annum

Diagnostics (Agilus)

  • Revenue grew 7.1% to ₹357 crore

  • EBITDA margin: 26.1% (vs. 21.5%)

  • Volume impact due to dis-continuation of Aam Aadmi Mohalla Clinic business

Growth Drivers

  • Medical Travel revenue up 26% YoY to ₹169 crore

  • Oncology revenue up 29% YoY

Bed Additions

  • 550 beds added in H1 FY26

  • FY26 organic addition guidance: 400–500 beds

  • Greater Noida hospital expected to reach ~15% EBITDA in six months

  • Manesar turned EBITDA-positive within a year

  • FY27 addition: 300–400 beds driven by FMRI expansion

Strategic Developments

  • O&M agreement with Gleneagles

  • Acquisition of Sriman Superspeciality Hospital

  • 550-bed Lucknow Greenfield O&M signed

  • Agilus stake at 89%

Balance Sheet

  • Net Debt: ₹2,219 crore

  • Net Debt/EBITDA: 0.96x

  • Management expects net debt to fall to zero in two years if no major acquisitions occur

Guidance

  • Hospital revenue growth of 17–19% expected in H2

  • Hospital EBITDA margin target of 25% achievable

  • Diagnostics margin expected at 23–24% for FY26

  • FMRI 225-bed expansion delayed to Q4 FY26

Conclusion

Fortis Healthcare’s recent performance reflects growth in revenue, operating EBITDA, occupancy, and ARPOB as reported in Q2 FY26 and H1 FY26. The company has added beds across facilities during the period, expanded its O&M portfolio, and completed acquisitions as disclosed. The diagnostics business reported higher EBITDA margins compared to the previous year. The balance sheet shows an increase in net debt due to completed transactions, with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.96x as of September 30, 2025. All financial figures, segment performance data, shareholding details, and operational updates in this report are derived from the company’s published information and management commentary included in the source document.

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