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Markets are consolidating ahead of the Fed’s expected rate cut. Nifty shows signs of a potential trend reversal, while sectoral rotation continues. Global markets hit record highs as investors focus on interest rate guidance and U.S.-China developments.
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Global and domestic markets are consolidating ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s widely expected rate cut this week. Key indices formed mixed patterns, while technical indicators for the Nifty suggest a possible trend reversal if it sustains above 25,250, with support near 24,800. The option chain points to a decisive zone between 25,000–25,200, and expiry dynamics may keep the index anchored near 25,100.
Meanwhile, Bank Nifty shows cautious positioning with activity clustered around 55,000, indicating limited upside unless momentum builds above that level.
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Opening Outlook
Gift Nifty signals a flat start for the Indian market. The Nifty spot is likely to consolidate within the 25,250–24,900 range in today’s session.
Previous Session Recap
The benchmark indices snapped their eight-session winning streak on Monday, ending marginally in the red as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the U.S. Fed’s policy announcement. Despite a 25-bps rate cut being largely priced in, attention remains on the Fed’s forward guidance and its implications for bond yields.
The Nifty began the session subdued and registered an intraday high of 25,138 early on, but selling pressure at higher levels triggered profit-taking. The index settled at 25,069.20, down 44.80 points (-0.18%). The Sensex closed at 81,785.74, down 118.96 points (-0.15%).
Sectoral trends were mixed, with Nifty Realty gaining +2.41%, supported by PSU Banks and Oil & Gas counters. On the downside, defensive and rate-sensitive sectors such as Pharma, Healthcare, Auto, and IT faced profit-booking pressure. The broader markets outperformed, with the Nifty Midcap 100 up +0.44% and the Nifty Smallcap rising +0.76%, indicating sustained interest amid sectoral rotation.
Nifty Outlook – Short-Term View
The index formed a bear candle contained within the previous session’s price range, signaling consolidation with stock-specific moves. Notably, the 20-day EMA crossed above the 50-day EMA for the first time during the last two months of corrective decline, signaling strengthening momentum.
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Immediate resistance lies at 25,200–25,250, aligning with the previous swing high and the 61.8% retracement of the entire decline (25,669–24,337). A decisive close above 25,250 would confirm a trend reversal and could unlock further upside toward 25,500 in the coming weeks.
Support Levels
Support is near 24,800, while short-term support is seen at 24,600–24,700. Holding above 24,800 would keep the positive bias intact.
Intraday Levels for Nifty
Resistance: 25,160 & 25,250
Support: 24,980 & 24,890
Intraday Levels for Bank Nifty
Resistance: 55,070 & 55,300
Support: 54,670 & 54,450
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