BAJAJ BROKING

Notification close image
No new Notification messages
card image
Euro Pratik Sales Ltd IPO
Apply for the Euro Pratik Sales Ltd IPO through UPI in Just minutes
delete image
card image
Start your SIP with just ₹100
Choose from 4,000+ Mutual Funds on Bajaj Broking
delete image
card image
Open a Free Demat Account
Pay ZERO maintenance charges for the first year, get free stock picks daily, and more.
delete image
card image
Trade Now, Pay Later with up to 4x
Never miss a good trading opportunity due to low funds with our MTF feature.
delete image
card image
Track Market Movers Instantly
Stay updated with real-time data. Get insights at your fingertips.
delete image

Axis Bank Futures Positional Trade: Detailed Research Buy Call by Bajaj Broking

 

Synopsis:


Axis Bank September futures reclaimed critical averages while shorts stayed elevated—classic short-covering fuel. Bajaj Broking Research Desk advises a buy at ₹1,090–₹1,110 with a ₹1,200 target and ₹1,057 stoploss, based on anchored VWAP, OI, EMA crossovers, and supportive option chain signals.


Source:
Bajaj Broking Research Desk

Stocks to Buy: Axis Bank Futures

Key Details:

  • Recommended Range: ₹1,090–₹1,110

  • Target Price: ₹1,200

  • Stoploss: ₹1,057 (closing basis)

  • Upside Potential: ~9% from mid-band (₹1,100 → ₹1,200)

  • Duration of Trade: 30 Days

  • Reference Date: September 12, 2025 (IST)

AXIS BANK LIMITED

Trade

1128.72.69 (0.23 %)

Updated - 18 September 2025
1132.80day high
DAY HIGH
1121.20day low
DAY LOW
142670
VOLUME (BSE)

Technical Analysis of Axis Bank

The sequence matters. July 18, 2025 opened with a gap-down after results; selling gathered speed and shorts rolled into August and then September. Price compressed into a ₹1,050–₹1,100 box. Not pretty. Then the turn: over September 10–11, a move off ₹1,051 pushed to ₹1,107, nudging the ceiling and—more importantly—sustaining above the zones where shorts are anchored. That’s the tell.

Anchored VWAP lens. Pin the AVWAP to July 18—the day shorts “got their bearings.” That sits near ₹1,077. With futures now holding above this line, shorts are in discomfort territory; every uptick pressures risk limits, every close above forces small exits. Those exits compound. That’s how squeezes begin.

Averages and trend repair. Futures reclaimed the 50-day SMA (₹1,093) and the 200-day SMA (~₹1,100). Short-term rhythm improved as the 5-EMA crossed above the 34-EMA, a practical early-trend signal. One crossover doesn’t make a trend, but paired with structure repair it often marks the first higher-low regime.

Momentum profile. RSI ~68.39—a clean climb from oversold (~30 in August). MFI ~64.12—money flowing back in, not euphoric, just steady. MACD: line near 6.88 closing in on the signal −3.37; histogram negative but narrowing—typical late-bear phase before a flip. Translation: sellers losing edge, buyers are patient.

Levels that decide behaviour. Support sits ₹1,050–₹1,060 (August lows, rejection shelf). Resistance ₹1,150–₹1,200 (downtrend line confluence and July pivot area). A daily close above ₹1,114 has tactical value—often where trapped positions start to adjust and momentum funds add.

Volume and OI texture. July–August’s heavy sell volume has tapered; September’s upticks arrive on healthier breadth, while Axis Bank September futures OI stays elevated—near one-year highs. Elevated OI above AVWAP equals a crowded short runway. That’s fuel.

  • Figures / Charts (attach from your doc):

  • Figure 1. Axis Bank Futures—Price & OI (Jul 18–Sep 11); note the AVWAP breach at ₹1,077 and OI persistence above it.

  • Figure 2. Daily chart with 50/200 SMA and 5/34 EMA crossover; shows the higher-low base and range break attempts.

  • Figure 3. Momentum panel (RSI, MFI, MACD); highlight RSI’s climb and narrowing MACD histogram.

Technical Analysis:

Breakout and Base Formation
 After weeks in a ₹1,050–₹1,100 coil, the last two sessions pushed and held above the upper band. Not a runaway yet; a range-escape attempt with confirmation pending on closes. The base overlaps with the August rejection shelf, improving the “location” for risk control.

Anchored VWAP & Short Positioning

 AVWAP from July 18 at ₹1,077 frames who’s underwater. Sustained trade above AVWAP converts a cheap short into an expensive mistake. Elevated September OI tells you participation is still skewed short; covering pressure can escalate quickly into the ₹1,150–₹1,200 zone.

Momentum Confirmation

 RSI high-60s, MFI mid-60s—constructive without the froth. MACD’s slope improving as the histogram compresses towards zero. Price above 50-SMA and 200-SMA, plus the 5/34-EMA cross, shifts the burden of proof to bears.

Risk Box

Invalidation is clean: a close back below ₹1,057 reopens the range and negates the immediate squeeze thesis. While above ₹1,093–₹1,100, trend repair stands. Stagger entries in the ₹1,090–₹1,110 band; let price action dictate add-ons rather than front-loading.

Why Consider Axis Bank Futures Now

  • Structure repair above AVWAP and key SMAs—location advantage.

  • Crowded shorts with near one-year-high OI—path of pain is up

  • Early crossover signals with improving momentum—timing edge.

  • Clear stop framework—risk knowable, reward expandable.

Options Angle

Call writers concentrated at ₹1,100 have been challenged as futures trade above this strike. On the flip side, in-the-money put writing emerged up to ₹1,140, implying participants are willing to defend dips. A daily close above ₹1,114 typically accelerates re-hedging and short covering. Use that as a practical trigger for conviction.

Figure 4. Option Chain Snapshot—September Series (highlight call OI at ₹1,100 and put writing footprint).

Broader Market Context: FIIs and Bank Nifty

FIIs have kept index-futures shorts elevated for two months—macro caution lingering. Yet Bank Nifty futures OI fell ~3% on each of September 10–11, a quiet hint of sector-level short-covering. In such phases, high-short single names typically lead on the way up. Axis Bank sits in that bucket.

Axis Bank Futures — Key Technical Levels

Metric / Level

Value (₹)

Read / Use-Case

Anchored VWAP (Jul 18, 2025)

1,077

Shorts trapped above; stay long while holding over AVWAP

50-Day SMA

1,093

Reclaimed; near-term bias positive

200-Day SMA

~1,100

Reclaimed; medium-term structure repair

5-EMA / 34-EMA

Bullish crossover

Early trend-turn signal

RSI / MFI

68.39 / 64.12

Momentum constructive; room before overbought extremes

Immediate Support

1,050–1,060

Invalidation below; place stop a touch under

Resistance / Target Band

1,150–1,200

Likely squeeze zone; book partials near 1,200

Derivatives Snapshot (September Series)

Element

Observation

Futures OI (AXISBANK)

Elevated; near one-year highs

Call OI Concentration

Heaviest near ₹1,100; challenged by price

Put Writing Footprint

Visible up to ₹1,140; downside cushioning

Bank Nifty Futures OI

~−3% on Sep 10 and Sep 11; short unwinding hint

FII Index-Futures Stance

Net-short bias persists; squeeze risk if macro improves

Conclusion

A positional trade deserves clarity more than bravado. While price stays above ₹1,093–₹1,100 and AVWAP ₹1,077, the path of least resistance is higher. Buy ₹1,090–₹1,110, target ₹1,200, stoploss ₹1,057 (close). Let the structure do the work; exits are rules, not opinions.

Share this article: 

Read More Blogs

Disclaimer :

The information on this website is provided on "AS IS" basis. Bajaj Broking (BFSL) does not warrant the accuracy of the information given herein, either expressly or impliedly, for any particular purpose and expressly disclaims any warranties of merchantability or suitability for any particular purpose. While BFSL strives to ensure accuracy, it does not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or timeliness of the information. Users are advised to independently verify details and stay updated with any changes.

The information provided on this website is for general informational purposes only and is subject to change without prior notice. BFSL shall not be responsible for any consequences arising from reliance on the information provided herein and shall not be held responsible for all or any actions that may subsequently result in any loss, damage and or liability. Interest rates, fees, and charges etc., are revised from time to time, for the latest details please refer to our Pricing page.

Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this website constitutes a solicitation or offer by BFSL or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service.

BFSL is acting as distributor for non-broking products/ services such as IPO, Mutual Fund, Insurance, PMS, and NPS. These are not Exchange Traded Products. For more details on risk factors, terms and conditions please read the sales brochure carefully before investing.

Investments in the securities market are subject to market risk, read all related documents carefully before investing. This content is for educational purposes only. Securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory.

[ Read More ]

For more disclaimer, check here : https://www.bajajbroking.in/disclaimer

Our Secure Trading Platforms

Level up your stock market experience: Download the Bajaj Broking App for effortless investing and trading

Bajaj Broking App Download

11 lakh+ Users

icon-with-text

4.4 App Rating

icon-with-text

4 Languages

icon-with-text

₹6400+ Cr MTF Book

icon-with-text