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Axis Bank September futures reclaimed critical averages while shorts stayed elevated—classic short-covering fuel. Bajaj Broking Research Desk advises a buy at ₹1,090–₹1,110 with a ₹1,200 target and ₹1,057 stoploss, based on anchored VWAP, OI, EMA crossovers, and supportive option chain signals.
Source: Bajaj Broking Research Desk
Key Details:
Recommended Range: ₹1,090–₹1,110
Target Price: ₹1,200
Stoploss: ₹1,057 (closing basis)
Upside Potential: ~9% from mid-band (₹1,100 → ₹1,200)
Duration of Trade: 30 Days
Reference Date: September 12, 2025 (IST)
The sequence matters. July 18, 2025 opened with a gap-down after results; selling gathered speed and shorts rolled into August and then September. Price compressed into a ₹1,050–₹1,100 box. Not pretty. Then the turn: over September 10–11, a move off ₹1,051 pushed to ₹1,107, nudging the ceiling and—more importantly—sustaining above the zones where shorts are anchored. That’s the tell.
Anchored VWAP lens. Pin the AVWAP to July 18—the day shorts “got their bearings.” That sits near ₹1,077. With futures now holding above this line, shorts are in discomfort territory; every uptick pressures risk limits, every close above forces small exits. Those exits compound. That’s how squeezes begin.
Averages and trend repair. Futures reclaimed the 50-day SMA (₹1,093) and the 200-day SMA (~₹1,100). Short-term rhythm improved as the 5-EMA crossed above the 34-EMA, a practical early-trend signal. One crossover doesn’t make a trend, but paired with structure repair it often marks the first higher-low regime.
Momentum profile. RSI ~68.39—a clean climb from oversold (~30 in August). MFI ~64.12—money flowing back in, not euphoric, just steady. MACD: line near 6.88 closing in on the signal −3.37; histogram negative but narrowing—typical late-bear phase before a flip. Translation: sellers losing edge, buyers are patient.
Levels that decide behaviour. Support sits ₹1,050–₹1,060 (August lows, rejection shelf). Resistance ₹1,150–₹1,200 (downtrend line confluence and July pivot area). A daily close above ₹1,114 has tactical value—often where trapped positions start to adjust and momentum funds add.
Volume and OI texture. July–August’s heavy sell volume has tapered; September’s upticks arrive on healthier breadth, while Axis Bank September futures OI stays elevated—near one-year highs. Elevated OI above AVWAP equals a crowded short runway. That’s fuel.
Figures / Charts (attach from your doc):
Figure 1. Axis Bank Futures—Price & OI (Jul 18–Sep 11); note the AVWAP breach at ₹1,077 and OI persistence above it.
Figure 2. Daily chart with 50/200 SMA and 5/34 EMA crossover; shows the higher-low base and range break attempts.
Figure 3. Momentum panel (RSI, MFI, MACD); highlight RSI’s climb and narrowing MACD histogram.
Breakout and Base Formation
After weeks in a ₹1,050–₹1,100 coil, the last two sessions pushed and held above the upper band. Not a runaway yet; a range-escape attempt with confirmation pending on closes. The base overlaps with the August rejection shelf, improving the “location” for risk control.
Anchored VWAP & Short Positioning
AVWAP from July 18 at ₹1,077 frames who’s underwater. Sustained trade above AVWAP converts a cheap short into an expensive mistake. Elevated September OI tells you participation is still skewed short; covering pressure can escalate quickly into the ₹1,150–₹1,200 zone.
Momentum Confirmation
RSI high-60s, MFI mid-60s—constructive without the froth. MACD’s slope improving as the histogram compresses towards zero. Price above 50-SMA and 200-SMA, plus the 5/34-EMA cross, shifts the burden of proof to bears.
Risk Box
Invalidation is clean: a close back below ₹1,057 reopens the range and negates the immediate squeeze thesis. While above ₹1,093–₹1,100, trend repair stands. Stagger entries in the ₹1,090–₹1,110 band; let price action dictate add-ons rather than front-loading.
Why Consider Axis Bank Futures Now
Structure repair above AVWAP and key SMAs—location advantage.
Crowded shorts with near one-year-high OI—path of pain is up
Early crossover signals with improving momentum—timing edge.
Clear stop framework—risk knowable, reward expandable.
Call writers concentrated at ₹1,100 have been challenged as futures trade above this strike. On the flip side, in-the-money put writing emerged up to ₹1,140, implying participants are willing to defend dips. A daily close above ₹1,114 typically accelerates re-hedging and short covering. Use that as a practical trigger for conviction.
Figure 4. Option Chain Snapshot—September Series (highlight call OI at ₹1,100 and put writing footprint).
FIIs have kept index-futures shorts elevated for two months—macro caution lingering. Yet Bank Nifty futures OI fell ~3% on each of September 10–11, a quiet hint of sector-level short-covering. In such phases, high-short single names typically lead on the way up. Axis Bank sits in that bucket.
Metric / Level | Value (₹) | Read / Use-Case |
Anchored VWAP (Jul 18, 2025) | 1,077 | Shorts trapped above; stay long while holding over AVWAP |
50-Day SMA | 1,093 | Reclaimed; near-term bias positive |
200-Day SMA | ~1,100 | Reclaimed; medium-term structure repair |
5-EMA / 34-EMA | Bullish crossover | Early trend-turn signal |
RSI / MFI | 68.39 / 64.12 | Momentum constructive; room before overbought extremes |
Immediate Support | 1,050–1,060 | Invalidation below; place stop a touch under |
Resistance / Target Band | 1,150–1,200 | Likely squeeze zone; book partials near 1,200 |
Element | Observation |
Futures OI (AXISBANK) | Elevated; near one-year highs |
Call OI Concentration | Heaviest near ₹1,100; challenged by price |
Put Writing Footprint | Visible up to ₹1,140; downside cushioning |
Bank Nifty Futures OI | ~−3% on Sep 10 and Sep 11; short unwinding hint |
FII Index-Futures Stance | Net-short bias persists; squeeze risk if macro improves |
A positional trade deserves clarity more than bravado. While price stays above ₹1,093–₹1,100 and AVWAP ₹1,077, the path of least resistance is higher. Buy ₹1,090–₹1,110, target ₹1,200, stoploss ₹1,057 (close). Let the structure do the work; exits are rules, not opinions.
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