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In a surprise move, the RBI cut the repo rate by 50 bps to 5.50% and shifted its policy stance from 'Accommodative' to 'Neutral'. GDP growth for FY26 remains at 6.5%, while CPI inflation is now seen at 3.7%.
On June 6, 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a 50 basis points (bps) cut in the benchmark repo rate, bringing it down from 6.00% to 5.50%. This is the third consecutive rate cut by the central bank since February 2025, and the reason behind this bold move is to provide a continued push to the Indian economy amidst a complex global environment.
The Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) has been revised to 5.25%, while the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) and the Bank Rate now stand at 5.75%.
A major highlight of the policy was the RBI’s decision to change its monetary stance from ‘Accommodative’ to ‘Neutral’. According to Governor Sanjay Malhotra, this transition reflects a maturing policy environment and signals a more data-driven approach to managing growth and inflation trade-offs going forward.
Malhotra emphasized that with a cumulative 100 bps reduction in the repo rate this year alone, there is now “very limited space to support growth” purely through monetary tools. The shift to a ‘Neutral’ stance offers the RBI greater flexibility in responding to both domestic and global developments without being tied to a rate-cutting bias.
Despite global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks, the RBI has retained its real GDP growth projection for FY26 at 6.5%. This growth is expected to be underpinned by strong private consumption, increased fixed capital formation, and resilient services sector activity.
The quarterly breakdown for FY26 GDP growth is as follows:
Q1 FY26: 6.5%
Q2 FY26: 6.7%
Q3 FY26: 6.6%
Q4 FY26: 6.3%
While these projections reflect optimism, the central bank has also cautioned that weather-related risks, global trade tensions, and geopolitical issues could create downside pressures in the coming quarters.
One of the most encouraging signals from the policy was the downward revision of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation forecast to 3.7% for FY26, compared to the earlier estimate of 4.0%. This revision comes on the back of easing international commodity prices and the expectation of a normal monsoon season.
Here’s the quarterly CPI inflation outlook:
Q1 FY26: 2.9%
Q2 FY26: 3.4%
Q3 FY26: 3.9%
Q4 FY26: 4.4%
The RBI noted that core inflation remains stable, and benign prices are expected to persist for key consumption items, assuming no supply-side shocks.
To complement the rate cut and enhance banking system liquidity, the RBI also announced a significant reduction in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR)—from 4% to 3%, phased over four tranches of 25 bps each starting September 2025.
This move is projected to release around ₹2.5 lakh crore into the banking system by the end of November 2025. The liquidity infusion aims to:
Lower banks’ funding costs
Improve Net Interest Margins (NIMs)
Strengthen banks’ ability to lend across sectors, including MSMEs and retail
This CRR cut aligns with the central bank’s ongoing efforts to stimulate credit growth and enhance monetary transmission across the economy.
Governor Malhotra reiterated that the RBI remains vigilant about financial sector risks, with particular attention to:
Unsecured retail credit and credit card portfolios, where stress has reportedly eased
The microfinance sector, which still faces pressure
Keeping India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD) at manageable levels
Maintaining India’s FDI attractiveness, despite moderation in inflows
The June 2025 monetary policy marks a strategic recalibration by the RBI—balancing aggressive rate cuts and liquidity infusion with a shift to a more cautious and reactive stance. By front-loading the repo rate cuts and injecting liquidity through a CRR reduction, the central bank has underlined its commitment to supporting growth without losing sight of price stability and financial resilience.
As domestic and global conditions evolve, the RBI’s neutral stance positions it well to respond quickly and effectively to upcoming macroeconomic developments.
Source - Bajaj Broking Research Desk
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