Global cues remain mixed as US markets gain and Asia weakens. Indian equities stay under pressure due to FII outflows, rupee weakness, and technical breakdowns, with high volatility expected ahead of F&O expiry and the Union Budget.
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Global markets delivered mixed signals overnight. US equities ended higher, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and optimism ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. In contrast, Asian markets slipped as renewed tariff concerns resurfaced. Commodities remained firm, with gold hitting record highs, while bond yields and the US dollar eased.
Back home, Indian equities closed sharply lower in the previous session, weighed down by broad-based selling, persistent FII outflows, and a weakening rupee. Technically, the Nifty continues to trade below key moving averages, keeping the short-term structure weak. Volatility is expected to remain elevated amid monthly F&O expiry and the upcoming Union Budget 2026.
Derivative indicators reinforce a bearish near-term outlook for both Nifty and Bank Nifty, with clear signs of short build-up, weakening supports, and strong overhead resistances. The downside risk remains intact unless critical resistance levels are decisively reclaimed.
Gift Nifty & Expected Range
Gift Nifty indicates a positive start for the Indian market today.
Nifty spot expected range: 24,800 – 25,300
The market failed to extend the sharp rebound seen earlier and ended lower on January 23, as volatility persisted amid a weaker rupee and continued FII selling.
Sensex: Down 769.67 points (-0.94%) at 81,537.70
Nifty: Down 241.25 points (-0.95%) at 25,048.65
On a weekly basis, both benchmark indices declined by nearly 2.5%.
Selling pressure was broad-based, with all sectoral indices closing in the red.
Capital Goods, Power, Realty, PSU Banks, and Media stocks led the losses, falling 2–3%, as investors turned cautious.
The broader market underperformed:
Midcap index: Down 1.8%
Small-cap index: Down 1.95%
Currency Update
The Indian rupee remained under pressure, touching a fresh intraday record low of 91.97 against the US dollar before settling at 91.96, weaker than the previous close of 91.62.
Nifty formed a strong bearish candle with a lower high and lower low, signaling continuation of the downtrend. The index also closed below its 200-day EMA, further weakening the technical setup.
With a truncated trading week ahead, volatility is likely to stay high due to:
Monthly F&O expiry
Union Budget scheduled for February 1, 2026
Nifty is currently hovering near the lower end of its seven-month rising channel, around the 52-week EMA at 25,000–24,800.
A decisive break below this zone could drag the index towards 24,600–24,500.
However, with the weekly stochastic nearing oversold levels after a sharp 1,400-point decline in just 14 sessions, a hold above the 25,000–24,800 zone could result in short-term consolidation between 24,800 and 25,500, with 25,400–25,500 acting as a key resistance area.
Key Levels to Watch (Intraday)
Nifty Resistance: 25,170 | 25,250
Nifty Support: 24,950 | 24,830
Bank Nifty Resistance: 58,750 | 58,990
Bank Nifty Support: 58,200 | 57,970
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